RIP: Model S and X production to end in Q2 2026!

[dalton108]

I don’t think I’ve ever been happier to see a vehicle get canceled! Just ordered my track package before they completely sell out of those and will be turning my Model S Plaid into a true 200 mph unicorn!!! ZOMG!!!!!! So happy!!!

Hey @YDR37, you know everything there is to know about Tesla production numbers how many Model S Plaids with the track package do you think exist in the world?

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[YDR37]

Tesla needs to sell 20m cars to reach one of the Elon tranches and 10m FSD subscriptions for another. IMO a takerate of 50% overall is unlikely, so really need more than 20m in total sales... or ~11m more at minimum and with a reasonable take rate (and significantly higher than now), more like ~20m in sales. They can't do that without more designs. They'll all be mass market sort or have a commercial base. No more niche vehicles after Roadster.

There's nothing that says that all 10 million FSD subscriptions have to be for Tesla vehicles. So Elon has been actively trying to cut deals for FSD with other automakers. In theory, a company like Ford could install appropriate hardware and then allow its customers to pay a monthly subscription fee to Tesla for FSD, just like Ford installs satellite radios and allows its customers to pay a monthly subscription fee to SiriusXM.

If other automakers were to work with Tesla on FSD, it obviously would become much easier to hit that 10 million mark. Elon seems frustrated that they won't cooperate.

Of course, if other automakers offered FSD, that could hurt Tesla vehicle sales. But that's OK, because Elon's 20 million car goal should be pretty easy to hit, even if Tesla vehicle sales fall.

 

[YDR37]

Hey @YDR37, you know everything there is to know about Tesla production numbers how many Model S Plaids with the track package do you think exist in the world?

Sorry, no one has that info except Tesla, and they are unlikely to share it.

In theory, it's possible to get data from VINs and registration info without Tesla's cooperation (and some analysts do this) -- but the VIN or the registration wouldn't indicate whether or not the vehicle had the track package.

Probably the only way it could happen is if a problem emerges with the track package and the government requires a recall. Then the number of affected vehicles would be public record.

 

[RayzorBEV]

So much noise out there...I'll just wait for the dust to settle down. In the mean time, I think I'll let one of my FSD CBs take me to my gym for a quickie with the sound system cranked up to Level 11
Peace out y'all!!

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

The S and X are currently still being marketed in Europe and China. Here's the French order page for the S, for example.

Now, it's true they probably aren't selling a lot of S/X in Europe and China, given the tariffs and pricing situation. But the point is that the S/X are selling better than the Cybertruck in those markets, because the CT isn't available in Europe or China at all. There is no French CT order page.

Don't know about the order page you see, but they killed them a while back and the wrong side of the road version has been dead since '23. China sales ended with tariffs except for a select few units they imported.

https://insideevs.com/news/767444/tesla-model-s-model-x-dead-europe/

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Elon said years ago they were only making them for nostalgia and they were basically a non-factor for their bottom line. Still, I'm sad to see them go. Beautiful unique cars.

 

[dalton108]

Elon said years ago they were only making them for nostalgia and they were basically a non-factor for their bottom line. Still, I'm sad to see them go. Beautiful unique cars.

Nothing lasts forever and they’re not gone just like so many other beautiful cars from 100 years ago that are still here being admired. I just can’t be happier than to be adding my car to that pantheon.

I know a lot of you don’t feel the same way, but I hope that the Cybertruck gets the same honor sooner rather than later. Shut it down and let the appreciation begin in every sense of that word. People didn’t appreciate Van Gogh and his time either.

 

[CyberJustice]

I have a 2020 X and it’s been the best family car I could ever imagine with 4 kids. I’m going to buy a new X when they’re on the last line of production. Instant collectors item.

 

[REM]

Wow! That is crazy news. I love my Model S…

And now it's rare. Take good care of it.

 

[dalton108]

Sorry, no one has that info except Tesla, and they are unlikely to share it.

In theory, it's possible to get data from VINs and registration info without Tesla's cooperation (and some analysts do this) -- but the VIN or the registration wouldn't indicate whether or not the vehicle had the track package.

Probably the only way it could happen is if a problem emerges with the track package and the government requires a recall. Then the number of affected vehicles would be public record.

Yeah, I would have to bet that it’s less than 1000 total. Honestly, I bet less than a quarter of that but like you say there’s really no way to know definitively.

[Sorry everyone I know this has absolutely nothing to do with Cybertrucks. But this thread is about model S&X so don’t rain on my parade either! ]

 

[REM]

Tesla's willingness to mothball the Model S & Model X shows, they are thinking correctly, and not keeping a production line going for a low-volume vehicle, even if it was their first production vehicle (Model S, it was my first Tesla a 2013 Model S, came with ALL of the "Early Adopter" issues)

This could certainly be trouble for the Cybertruck. A prediciton is, when CyberTaxi enters massmarket production, and/or Optimus needs to be produced before it's dedicated building is finished construction, it will certainly be on the chopping block, if the volume continues to be very low.. maybe they will redesign it, but they don't seem to be in the "let's make a new vehicle" mindset, they pretty much said they are done manufacturing vehicles for the consumer EV market, it is all in on RoboTaxi and Optimus.. Other than delivering a few thousand new Roadsters, I don't believe they intend to make any new designs.

Brother, Cybertrucks are incredibly profitable on the robotaxi network.

 

[mitch9]

I would say this is an unlikely situation. Tesla needs to sell 20m cars to reach one of the Elon tranches and 10m FSD subscriptions for another. IMO a takerate of 50% overall is unlikely, so really need more than 20m in total sales... or ~11m more at minimum and with a reasonable take rate (and significantly higher than now), more like ~20m in sales. They can't do that without more designs. They'll all be mass market sort or have a commercial base. No more niche vehicles after Roadster.

20M cars to whom? If they build 10M RoboTaxis, they are the customer themselves, and then add in the ones that Uber, Lift, Waymo and other ridesharing services may end up with. Plus they are still selling the Model 3 and Model Y, and they continue improving them. They basiclly told the analysts "we are done manufacturing cars for the consumer market", maybe you didn't hear it, but it was said clearly, as they each asked about new models, and the reply was always "we intend to pursue autonomy and out robotaxi business, as well as optimus", they said NOTHING about any new vehicles, other than mentioning the Roadster will be completed

 

[mitch9]

There is ONE more vehicle, they are very likely going to manufacture, it was shown on "Autonomy" day, on the Los Angeles movie lot... The 10-12 passenger van.. They have 2 uses for them:

1) The boring company needs a larger vehicle for the Las Vegas tunnels, when their is a trade show going.. It will need to be sized to fit in their tunnels.

2) Airport to downtown runs on the Robotaxi network, multiple passengers all heading to a downtown area with bagage, etc.

I expect they will use a lot of the Cybertruck engineering (48V electrical system, drive by wire, of course FSD). I would not hold my breath for this announcement, they are highly focused on launching the Robotaxi network in multiple cities, and ramping up production of them. Once that is well underway, they will likely announce/start on the passenger van

Note: They very likely will not have steering wheels, brake or go pedals, they will be designed for use as autonomous only on the robotaxi network.

 

[YDR37]

Don't know about the order page you see, but they killed them a while back and the wrong side of the road version has been dead since '23. China sales ended with tariffs except for a select few units they imported.

https://insideevs.com/news/767444/tesla-model-s-model-x-dead-europe/

The linked article is from July 2025. Tesla resumed European deliveries of the S/X in October 2025, as per this story:

https://electrek.co/2025/10/22/tesla-relaunches-model-s-x-in-europe-after-3-month-break/

So there are currently still order pages for the S/X in most European countries. But not the UK or Ireland, so the right-hand drive versions do appear to be dead already.

And you're right about China -- no S/X order pages. I looked at Taiwan by mistake.

 

[YDR37]

Elon said years ago they were only making them for nostalgia and they were basically a non-factor for their bottom line.

That was way back in the 3Q 2019 earnings call. Elon stated:

The Model S and X are really niche -- they're really niche products. I mean, they're very expensive, made in low volume. To be totally frank, we're continuing to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They're really of minor importance to the future.

In 3Q 2019, the combined total of Model S and Model X deliveries was 17,400. So according to Elon, that was a "low volume" sales level, and the S/X were therefore "niche products" of "minor importance."

For comparison, there were around 5,000 Cybertruck deliveries in 4Q 2025, including all global markets. Hopefully Tesla feels sentimental about the CT.

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