RIP: Model S and X production to end in Q2 2026!

[SCTesla]

Regulatory compliance is a large factor and gov'ts are never fast. In NA we will see the robotaxi rollout quickly. We're probably, at a minimum, 4-5 years away from Europe even having a chance at Robotaxi at a wide scale (UK excluded, that will happen earlier since they aren't EU). China may never happen. Japan is probably 3-4 away at a minimum and Korea about the same (this doesn't get into possible local industry protection). The other markets are not viable enough to deal with regulatory compliance issues yet. These are likely on the aggressive side, it might be over a decade before China, Japan and Europe have wide scale robotaxi deployment.

Freight and semi are markets, but the numbers aren't as big as people think. There are replacement issues, but it will happen over time. Few hundred thousand here and there. Not millions at a time. There has been strong growth on the number of truck drivers in the US over the last 10-15 years. We were in the low 2m range after the 08 financial crisis and now we are the low 3m. It is aging, but a 33% reduction is basically where the US was in 2010. It would dramatically increase the cost of goods in the US if that happened, but that would also be a massive shock. A 2-400k semis being deployed and about half autonomous in the next 4-5 years is probably the realistic outcome.

Semi i agree is relatively small. The max production for the line (not yet finished) is 50k per year. People think there will be millions of Tesla Semis, but that's unrealistic for many years. We also still don't know the real Semi price, but some have alluded that it may have almost doubled. We know PepsiCo is paying around 250k for their pilot versions.

If they are to the upper limits of rumors (400k for long range) adoption will be slower, much like the CT.

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[RayzorBEV]

20M cars to whom? If they build 10M RoboTaxis, they are the customer themselves, and then add in the ones that Uber, Lift, Waymo and other ridesharing services may end up with. Plus they are still selling the Model 3 and Model Y, and they continue improving them. They basiclly told the analysts "we are done manufacturing cars for the consumer market", maybe you didn't hear it, but it was said clearly, as they each asked about new models, and the reply was always "we intend to pursue autonomy and out robotaxi business, as well as optimus", they said NOTHING about any new vehicles, other than mentioning the Roadster will be completed

This is just Elon's vision for his companies, all subject to change based on supply and demand, and keeping all the investors happy. It is a delicate balance. Elon will pivot if demand is not there and/or investors disapprove. He always has and will.

 

[SCTesla]

This is just Elon's vision for his companies, all subject to change based on supply and demand, and keeping all the investors happy. It is a delicate balance. Elon will pivot if demand is not there and/or investors disapprove. He always has and will.

I disagree. Elon has not done a good job of pivoting with falling or no demand.

It's very clear that his entry into politics has hurt demand and that doesn't bother him.

It's very clear that the CT has almost no demand and he's still moving forward.

It's very clear that there is massive demand outside of the US for a smaller vehicle (he's even stated this), but he said that's boring and it will be difficult to get good margins.

 

[SCTesla]

Interesting now that you said that!
Soon
If Tesla sells Xs dirt cheap I will buy one, but the X would need to be lower cost than a Y for my buy.
I could care less about parts or warranty and I am sure Tesla or 3rd party parts sellers will always make X/S parts.
Like the Ford Model T you can buy new parts for that antique.

You could find a used MX for the price of a MY, but not new.

That's an odd ask "would need to be lower cost than a MY". That's like saying you would get a new BMW 5 series if it were cheaper than a Civic.

 

[gooshjkc]

IMO, this was bound to happen. Everyone, including me was thinking it, just didn’t want to come out and say it. It is overall sad to see them going. I had the S in 2012 and then followed by three Xs. Now, CTB and Model Y. Tesla will keep it the CT for at least ten years and like the reports say slowly change it to encompass into a FSD machine.

 

[SCTesla]

IMO, this was bound to happen. Everyone, including me was thinking it, just didn’t want to come out and say it. It is overall sad to see them going. I had the S in 2012 and then followed by three Xs. Now, CTB and Model Y. Tesla will keep it the CT for at least ten years and like the reports say slowly change it to encompass into a FSD machine.

10 years is crazy. If sales continue the way they are, there's 0 chance it's available for 10 years. Maybe 2 at most.

If you believe Elon, in 10 years they won't be selling any traditional consumer vehicles.

 

[gooshjkc]

10 years is crazy. If sales continue the way they are, there's 0 chance it's available for 10 years. Maybe 2 at most.

If you believe Elon, in 10 years they won't be selling any traditional consumer vehicles.

You might be right. I just don’t think Tesla will just drop it after spending so much R&D on it. Sales have definitely slowed since its introduction, but since then it has been steady. Of course nothing to write home about. However, there’s still a market for it. And with many of the competitors dropping out many might turn to CT for their EV truck itch.

 

[SCTesla]

You might be right. I just don’t think Tesla will just drop it after spending so much R&D on it. Sales have definitely slowed since its introduction, but since then it has been steady. Of course nothing to write home about. However, there’s still a market for it. And with many of the competitors dropping out many might turn to CT for their EV truck itch.

Steady?

They sold between 2-3k(depending on how many were actually purchased by Elon for his other companies) in the US to consumers last quarter and it's expected to be worse this quarter. They've been in decline since 2024.

While they may now be king of the EV Truck market with Ford EOL the lightning, the market is tiny.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Cybercab

I took his comment as confirmation the cybercab won’t be for sale to consumers. Their revenue base is transitioning to fees.

 

[SCTesla]

I took his comment as confirmation the cybercab won’t be for sale to consumers. Their revenue base is transitioning to fees.

Every time he's been asked that he says something like, I could see that happening if there's demand...meaning they aren't planning for it currently.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Fundamental problem with S and X is they were developed before Tesla's modern cost-savings techniques. No castings. No 4680. The assembly lines are ancient low-volume setups in the old Toyota factory. To make them viable or increase volume they basically need all-new cars and new assembly lines. So they're killing them.

I think we'll see the Model YYY this year for sure now. It will fill much of the demand of the X at a lower price and better margins, even if it is a lot less cool. I think there's a good chance of a Cybertruck SUV, and we may still see the roadster as a halo car. Not a lot of demand for large cars so a true S replacement is unlikely. Cybertruck will almost certainly live on, as the production line is modern and it fills a role that can't be replaced by other vehicles. As the said, the line is flexible and we'll see other similar large vehicles added, such as an SUV or autonomous cargo vehicle.

 

[YDR37]

Elon has said many things, many not true. It wouldn't be the first of last time he exaggerates something. To get to ~11-12m vehicles delivered, Tesla will have to have external sales and it will have to comprise more than the 3 and Y as we know them today for that level of volume.

Elon's pay package calls for 20 million Tesla vehicle deliveries by 2035:

the first “product goal” that Tesla’s board of directors laid out for Musk to achieve on his path to becoming a trillionaire is to deliver 20 million vehicles total ... by 2035.

Tesla hit the 9 million vehicle milestone at the end of 2025. So they need 11 million more to hit the 20 million target by 2035, which is 9 years from now. So the goal is 11 million new vehicle deliveries over the next 9 years, which is an average of 1.22 million vehicle deliveries per year.

Tesla vehicles deliveries peaked in 2023 at just over 1.8 million. They fell in 2024 and 2025, but were still at 1.64 million last year. Even if you only count the 3/Y, there were 1.59 million deliveries.

So Tesla is already delivering enough vehicles to hit 20 million by 2035. It's true that deliveries are falling, but they are still well above the needed 1.22 million level.

 

[AO-Pete]

Sigh. Our first S arrived in Feb 2013 (after we flew - FLEW - for a test drive in Miami as they weren't in Texas at that time). Had two more since, and an X. I always thought X would go first; as a car, it's batshit crazy with all it's wacky features, and we loved it, but it's not mainstream, and Tesla never really figured out how to build them efficiently. Our 2023 Refresh leaked like a sieve when it rained, they could never fix it (but we still loved it).

There's growing rumors that the YL is coming here, so this clears the path for that. Like others, gambling the future of Tesla on robotic and autonomy seems wild to me; people still want to drive, and Tesla makes cars more efficiently than any other company. Franz's S design is as timeless as it gets.

I'm surprised Tesla isn't doing some sort of 'retirement' package for S & X. Bring back the Founder Red, or some other color, add a couple of bells and whistles and sell it as the last ever version. I think that would sell well.

I also think there's normally a place for halo products for any brand (ignoring Roadster here). But I do think the polarizing nature of Elon has put people off, so if someone wants to spend $120k on an EV sedan/SUV, they'll go to the safe choices of Merc, Audi, Cadi etc... Not saying I agree with that, and depreciation is crazy on their EV's, but doesn't matter. Safe brands. This entire thing strengthens Rivian's position in the US, they're clearly committed to a full roadmap of vehicles.

This is all playing out in the open, and Elon has been really clear, it's time to stop thinking of Tesla as an automotive company, but Elon has such a skewed view of the world (how could he not), it's not grounded in reality. People want to drive sometimes!

 

[henchman24]

Purely financially, Tesla would make a lot more money deploying Cybercab and Robotaxi Ys themselves vs selling them if they have the markets to support Robotaxi. That's a big if and requires market expansion. If they cannot have the market expansion, the odds of selling Cybercab increase. If the markets (and regulations allow) expand to where they can support 250k vehicles a year (large stretch IMO, but not impossible), it would me a mistake to sell Cybercab.

That's the whole crux of this. If Robotaxi gets to the point where they can support a churn of ~2m vehicles a year and the utilization is >8 hours a day... the financials are so nutty that Tesla simply shouldn't produce any consumer vehicles. 2m at an assumption of a ~3 year lifespan (50k per year, 150k lifespan), is 6m active Robotaxis. That amount of Robotaxis would theoretically support about 750m-1b people. Basically requires all of the US and Europe to be covered by service (and rural populations are less likely to utilize or have service). Acceptance in China is probably as key as anything else. If China accepts Tesla Robotaxi as a service, they can likely hit ~3-4m active robotaxis in China alone. If they don't all of the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and Korea are likely needed for that churn.

Elon's pay package calls for 20 million Tesla vehicle deliveries by 2035:

Tesla hit the 9 million vehicle milestone at the end of 2025. So they need 11 million more to hit the 20 million target by 2035, which is 9 years from now. So the goal is 11 million new vehicle deliveries over the next 9 years, which is an average of 1.22 million vehicle deliveries per year.

Tesla vehicles deliveries peaked in 2023 at just over 1.8 million. They fell in 2024 and 2025, but were still at 1.64 million last year. Even if you only count the 3/Y, there were 1.59 million deliveries.

So Tesla is already delivering enough vehicles to hit 20 million by 2035. It's true that deliveries are falling, but they are still well above the needed 1.22 million level.

Sales today don't necessarily equate to sales later. To maintain the sales moving forward, they have to roughly maintain their market share of the Y and 3 for 6-7 years. While more competitors enter the market. By 2035 it is pretty much a sure thing IMO, but Elon will want to hit that earlier (it is one of the easier targets to hit). They might just be variants and tweaks to the 3/Y platform, but my expectation is they will introduce more options to keep sales volume high in the interim.

 

[YDR37]

They might just be variants and tweaks to the 3/Y platform, but my expectation is they will introduce more options to keep sales volume high in the interim.

Tesla is already getting pretty creative with Model Y variants. In Europe right now, there are five trims:

- Standard
- Standard Long Range
- Premium RWD
- Premium AWD
- Performance

Then in China, there's the extended YL version. And now there are rumors of a longer-range "YL Plus" later this year. So potentially 7 different versions of the Model Y.

Not sure how much further they can run with this. I suppose they could take the extended YL, put a bed in the back, and market it as the Y pickup. That would be ironic, because it was what most people expected back in 2016, when Tesla first announced that they had a pickup in development.

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