RIP: Model S and X production to end in Q2 2026!

[bradhs]

Sad day for me. We have a X Plaid and CB. I came from a S Plaid. They're all my favorite ones. I may replace our X with a newer year just so we have a longer "shelf" life with it.

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[YDR37]

We can no longer talk about S3XY vehicles.

Which is better: 3Y or Y3 ?

 

[CyberGus]

Which is better: 3Y or Y3 ?

“Y3CT”

 

[BrickBungalow]

It's the right move. Compact and subcompact at scale is where global production needs to go. Along with infrastructure to allow EV operation for all market tiers. Maybe the CT gets developed into a family of utility vehicles at some point.

 

[not_elon_]

They seriously need to stop wasting time with 2nd gen roaster also. The cybertruck served to introduce usable tech like steer by wire and 48v which saves its folly. The new roadster however is pure vanity project.

 

[Vegetaban]

Sad. Maybe I can get a deal on an x for my mom though before it ends

 

[tingmo13]

All things must come to an end-even this precious human life-The Law of Impermanence! So enjoy while you can with more rationality!

 

[henchman24]

20M cars to whom? If they build 10M RoboTaxis, they are the customer themselves, and then add in the ones that Uber, Lift, Waymo and other ridesharing services may end up with. Plus they are still selling the Model 3 and Model Y, and they continue improving them. They basiclly told the analysts "we are done manufacturing cars for the consumer market", maybe you didn't hear it, but it was said clearly, as they each asked about new models, and the reply was always "we intend to pursue autonomy and out robotaxi business, as well as optimus", they said NOTHING about any new vehicles, other than mentioning the Roadster will be completed

Unless Robotaxi spins off, they wouldn't be counted as a customer. Doing so would tie it up in lawsuits that Tesla would likely lose. Other companies could be buying it (and I think will be). The commercial market isn't nearly as deep as people think. Hertz's whole fleet is 560k. Uber has 8.8m drivers across the world. Lyft is around 2m in US and Canada. With increased utilization, those numbers will not be static and will drop dramatically. High utilization estimates are around 10x and low are around 5x. So all of Uber/Lyft would be roughly replaced by ~2m robotaxis (and this assumes high since many drivers are only doing a few rides when convenient). A long ways from 11-12m.

Many estimates (that I think are way too low) have the number in 2035 being 250-500k in the US. 10x that and we are still way, way below 20m. Now I think the initial rollout (next 3-4 years) will have numbers in the low millions (2-3m by 2030 seems reasonable). Then it'll be more replacement and it'll tail off.

The 3/Y alone will not get there and won't get there without further improvements/models. IE YL helps the Y get more squeeze, but will need further of this idea.

It won't be the first or last time Tesla (or any other company) states something that isn't true on a call. Companies do it all the time.

There's nothing that says that all 10 million FSD subscriptions have to be for Tesla vehicles. So Elon has been actively trying to cut deals for FSD with other automakers. In theory, a company like Ford could install appropriate hardware and then allow its customers to pay a monthly subscription fee to Tesla for FSD, just like Ford installs satellite radios and allows its customers to pay a monthly subscription fee to SiriusXM.

If other automakers were to work with Tesla on FSD, it obviously would become much easier to hit that 10 million mark. Elon seems frustrated that they won't cooperate.

Of course, if other automakers offered FSD, that could hurt Tesla vehicle sales. But that's OK, because Elon's 20 million car goal should be pretty easy to hit, even if Tesla vehicle sales fall.

Correct, nothing stating 10m is just Tesla. Nobody has taken up Tesla on it because of their restrictions on volume and being EV. That could change, but it is unlikely. Maybe it is the on the tail end the and the difference between 9m and 10m, but it won't make a dent in the movement from 1.1m to 6-7-8m. Tesla has to 10x FSD from today. It is a massive change.

They need to sell 20m total, not per year. Cybercab will count. Elon said the Roadster will be the last new vehicle today

I didn't say per year, I said 20m. Cybercab will count in external sales, and unless Robotaxi spins off, those are not delivered vehicles and would results in a lawsuit that Tesla would likely lose. There will be external customers for Cybercab though.

Elon has said many things, many not true. It wouldn't be the first of last time he exaggerates something. To get to ~11-12m vehicles delivered, Tesla will have to have external sales and it will have to comprise more than the 3 and Y as we know them today for that level of volume.

 

[SCTesla]

Unless Robotaxi spins off, they wouldn't be counted as a customer. Doing so would tie it up in lawsuits that Tesla would likely lose. Other companies could be buying it (and I think will be). The commercial market isn't nearly as deep as people think. Hertz's whole fleet is 560k. Uber has 8.8m drivers across the world. Lyft is around 2m in US and Canada. With increased utilization, those numbers will not be static and will drop dramatically. High utilization estimates are around 10x and low are around 5x. So all of Uber/Lyft would be roughly replaced by ~2m robotaxis (and this assumes high since many drivers are only doing a few rides when convenient). A long ways from 11-12m.

Many estimates (that I think are way too low) have the number in 2035 being 250-500k in the US. 10x that and we are still way, way below 20m. Now I think the initial rollout (next 3-4 years) will have numbers in the low millions (2-3m by 2030 seems reasonable). Then it'll be more replacement and it'll tail off.

The 3/Y alone will not get there and won't get there without further improvements/models. IE YL helps the Y get more squeeze, but will need further of this idea.

It won't be the first or last time Tesla (or any other company) states something that isn't true on a call. Companies do it all the time.


Correct, nothing stating 10m is just Tesla. Nobody has taken up Tesla on it because of their restrictions on volume and being EV. That could change, but it is unlikely. Maybe it is the on the tail end the and the difference between 9m and 10m, but it won't make a dent in the movement from 1.1m to 6-7-8m. Tesla has to 10x FSD from today. It is a massive change.


I didn't say per year, I said 20m. Cybercab will count in external sales, and unless Robotaxi spins off, those are not delivered vehicles and would results in a lawsuit that Tesla would likely lose. There will be external customers for Cybercab though.

Elon has said many things, many not true. It wouldn't be the first of last time he exaggerates something. To get to ~11-12m vehicles delivered, Tesla will have to have external sales and it will have to comprise more than the 3 and Y as we know them today for that level of volume.

So I just looked at the exact document.

It's 20 million vehicles delivered. It does not say sold.

20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered.

Here are more details on that:

Notice delivery counts as a vehicle being entered into commercial operation as a Robtaxi.

Tesla doesn't need to sell anymore cars to consumers or anyone. They could make 12 million cars and enter them into Operations as a RT and they meet that.

 

[henchman24]

So I just looked at the exact document.

It's 20 million vehicles delivered. It does not say sold.

20 Million Tesla Vehicles Delivered.

Here is more details on that:

Notice delivery counts as a vehicle being entered into commercial operation as a Robtaxi.

Tesla doesn't need to sell anymore cars to consumers or anyone. They could make 12 million cars and enter them into Operations as a RT and they meet that.

I stand corrected on Robotaxi deployment. They have it explicitly counted based on that definition in the 2nd pic. The math still maths with deployment. 11-12m is a huge hurdle. The first couple million will be quick (within 3 years), then it will tail off drastically to replacement rate (roughly every 3-4 years).

 

[SCTesla]

I stand corrected on Robotaxi deployment. They have it explicitly counted based on that definition in the 2nd pic. The math still maths with deployment. 11-12m is a huge hurdle. The first couple million will be quick (within 3 years), then it will tail off drastically to replacement rate (roughly every 3-4 years).

I think Tesla will eventually sell RT to others, but that is years away. Even UFSD for consumers is pretty far away. Elon basically said he wasn't sure when that would be ready.

I do worry as an investor because currently Tesla is only allowed to make 2,500 vehicles without a steering wheel or pedals. There is legislation to move that number to 9k per year, but it could take 5+ years to get 1m RTs on the road. Elon saying there are no new vehicles being designed currently other than the Roadster and also saying the MYL may never come to NA, it just doesn't make sense how they will hit their goals.

They have 330k active FSD subscriptions and 800k people have purchased FSD globally (which count as subscriptions). There's a lot of work to get to 10m subscriptions.

 

[mitch9]

I stand corrected on Robotaxi deployment. They have it explicitly counted based on that definition in the 2nd pic. The math still maths with deployment. 11-12m is a huge hurdle. The first couple million will be quick (within 3 years), then it will tail off drastically to replacement rate (roughly every 3-4 years).

There are other markets, the world is a large place.

They also have other Elon companies that need autonoumous vehicles, that are not in the Robotaxi fleet, one being the Boring company, and their tunnel systems, which will expand beyond Las Vegas and Tenesee. There is also autonmous freight delivery (eventually with Optimus unloading/moving it), and don’t forget about the Semi, that will eventually be autonmous, and the truck driver fleet is aging out rapidly, with not enough younger replacement drivers.

 

[henchman24]

I think Tesla will eventually sell RT to others, but that is years away. Even UFSD for consumers is pretty far away. Elon basically said he wasn't sure when that would be ready.

I do worry as an investor because currently Tesla is only allowed to make 2,500 vehicles without a steering wheel or pedals. There is legislation to move that number to 9k per year, but it could take 5+ years to get 1m RTs on the road. Elon saying there are no new vehicles being designed currently other than the Roadster and also saying the MYL may never come to NA, it just doesn't make sense how they will hit their goals.

They have 330k active FSD subscriptions and 800k people have purchased FSD globally (which count as subscriptions). There's a lot of work to get to 10m subscriptions.

Your worry is why I don't think it is realistic for near zero consumer sales. It might be the plan today, but it is unlikely to stay the plan. We've seen Tesla pivot a lot. They likely will with the goals being so lofty. The numbers around this signal they will have to.

The 2500 cap will eventually be lifted. I'm more on the ~2-3 year range than 5.

 

[henchman24]

There are other markets, the world is a large place.

They also have other Elon companies that need autonoumous vehicles, that are not in the Robotaxi fleet, one being the Boring company, and their tunnel systems, which will expand beyond Las Vegas and Tenesee. There is also autonmous freight delivery (eventually with Optimus unloading/moving it), and don’t forget about the Semi, that will eventually be autonmous, and the truck driver fleet is aging out rapidly, with not enough younger replacement drivers.

Regulatory compliance is a large factor and gov'ts are never fast. In NA we will see the robotaxi rollout quickly. We're probably, at a minimum, 4-5 years away from Europe even having a chance at Robotaxi at a wide scale (UK excluded, that will happen earlier since they aren't EU). China may never happen. Japan is probably 3-4 away at a minimum and Korea about the same (this doesn't get into possible local industry protection). The other markets are not viable enough to deal with regulatory compliance issues yet. These are likely on the aggressive side, it might be over a decade before China, Japan and Europe have wide scale robotaxi deployment.

Freight and semi are markets, but the numbers aren't as big as people think. There are replacement issues, but it will happen over time. Few hundred thousand here and there. Not millions at a time. There has been strong growth on the number of truck drivers in the US over the last 10-15 years. We were in the low 2m range after the 08 financial crisis and now we are the low 3m. It is aging, but a 33% reduction is basically where the US was in 2010. It would dramatically increase the cost of goods in the US if that happened, but that would also be a massive shock. A 2-400k semis being deployed and about half autonomous in the next 4-5 years is probably the realistic outcome.

 

[SCTesla]

My test drives of S/X and I test drove a Plaid. Drive Comfort and Especially Easy of Entry and Exit. For some reason the Y is slip in slip out
Also 3 is not the same as the Y.
That is only test drives not ownership.

The S is lower sure, but the Y and X are comparable in ease of entry/exit.

The S/X drives smoother, heavier, less road noise, faster, more comforts in the cabin...worth almost double the price? Probably not, but I've owned all versions outside of the M3 and I've had M3s for loaners and rentals. There's absolutely a difference in quality.

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