Realistic timeline for the sale of Optimus to consumers.

[hemiarch]

Who has an educated opinion about when this is supposed to happen?

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[That Beast Mode]

Probably only the engineering team and Elon. Why you're in a rush to be enslaved by your robot overlord?

 

[SCTesla]

2027 at the earliest per the last earnings call.

 

[CyberRout66]

Probably only the engineering team and Elon. Why you're in a rush to be enslaved by your robot overlord?

I am really looking forward to my in-house robot stringing my tennis rackets.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Well if the earnings call from Telsa said 2027, I would not expect it till late 2028/29 at the earliest.

It has been shown time and time again that Telsa/Elon look at the best case scenario's, which is usually does not happen.

 

[Oden's Beast]

When it goes on sale, I may wait a year to get all the perks for free that Foundation Optimus owners will have to pay full price for.

Just kidding, I’ll still likely be that guy. It’s a sickness.

 

[That Beast Mode]

I am really looking forward to my in-house robot stringing my tennis rackets.

Its all fun and games until hes beating you over the head with that racket. Lol

 

[Pops]

The Chinese companies are starting to show more promising robots than Optimus. But no one seems even close to a useful product. I feel they are wasting so much time on making humanoid robots, trying to perfect the balance and movement. Just give them wheels and focus on the AI of executing tasks.

Cleaning robots seems like the most useful home function. If they cant fold clothes, wash the dishes, mow the lawn, and take out the trash, they will be a hard sell. Not many people will pay $20k for a robot that can only open the fridge and get you a beer.

I mostly want a robot that will inventory my whole home. "Hey where did I put my #6 socket wrench again?"

I wonder if the US will put in some regulations for economic protectionism to prevent their import. They did it with phones from Huawei, ZTE and most recently with drones from DJI. TP Link is likely next.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

My guess is 2028

 

[Pops]

Regarding the timeline. My estimate is 2030, and even then it will be very limited in its functionality. Home robotics is going to be a harder problem to solve than FSD. The advancements made in FSD and AI are going to help, but it is a far more complex problem to solve.

Vehicles have a more limited number of environments to navigate, most roads are very similar. Homes, offices and buildings will vary a lot. The number of tasks people would want from a robot are also more numerous than driving tasks.

You almost need artificial general intelligence to solve the problems a home robot would face. AGI doesnt exist, and it might never leave the realm of SciFi. All AIs built today are purpose made, text language models, generative images and video.

Imagine the command "Robot, please clean my garage and organize my storage containers with similar items, then label those containers and remember their contents." This AI then needs to solve these problems:

• View and identify items (doable)
• Understand their categories (maybe)
• Physically move items around (in progress)
• Pay Tetris and organize varied items (in progress)
• Keep a running inventory (doable)
• Lift heavy containers (no humanoid robots have demonstrated this yet)

Now if you build an AI and robot that can do that previous task, it would not be immediately capable of the following command "Robot remove the weeds from the garden, and trim the hedges into the shape of a dolphin"

 

[LarryASilva]

Probably only the engineering team and Elon. Why you're in a rush to be enslaved by your robot overlord?

Not enslaved .... ASSISTED ... per my directions ... with a prime directive of DO NO HARM.

 

[CyberGus]

Just give them wheels and focus on the AI of executing tasks.

Can't we have both?

 

[That Beast Mode]

Not enslaved .... ASSISTED ... per my directions ... with a prime directive of DO NO HARM.

Yeah that worked out well for John and Sarah Connor too..

 

[Jabman]

Yeah that worked out well for John and Sarah Connor too..

 

[REM]

No data to back this up. pure speculation:

I think we will have v3 Optimus reveal mid year, and volume manufacturing towards the end of the year. Tesla will scale in house and to sibling companies (SpaceX, Boring, etc) for a few months until selling volume to other big players.

End user/consumer sales will probably start happening mid year '27.

don't forget that like robotaxi, they will be able to GREATLY enhance Optimus through firmware updates after they are already deployed, so Tesla can afford to be less capable on the software side before worrying about volume productions.

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