Cybertruck Q1 2025 Deliveries (Lowest to Date) [⚠️ ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICS]

[Gigahorse]

It looks like Cybertruck deliverers for Q1 are under 12,000 with the X and S in there likely way under 12,000.


Q1 2024~2,715
Q2 2024~11,558
Q3 2024~16,692
Q4 2024~11,724

Q1 2025 likely less than 10,000
Which means that despite production ramp Q1 was the worst quarter for the CT since production really got going.
Personally I thought that the 1.99% financing would move that number of CTs closer to 12,000+ last quarter.

Here is to hoping that Tesla has some levers to pull on pricing and incentives to get more of these trucks made and sold.
Fewer of them on the road means more expensive repairs, modifications, and more time explaining to people in a parking lot what they are.

Here is to hoping that Q2 brings more CT out of the birthing tunnel and into garages.



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[YDR37]

Tesla doesn't release official numbers for Cybertruck deliveries; they only release a number for combined deliveries of the Model S + Model X + Cybertruck. So the CT numbers are only estimates, and they vary depending on who is doing the estimating.

Troy Teslike's historical delivery numbers for the CT are below. His current analysis is paywalled, but he makes his historical estimates available to the general public in a table here.

4Q 2023: 123
1Q 2024: 2,321
2Q 2024: 9,325
3Q 2024: 12,703
4Q 2024: 12,673

The 4Q 2024 number includes 1,200 deliveries in Canada; the others are US only.

With 12,881 deliveries of S/X/CT combined in 1Q 2025, that probably means 5,000 to 8,000 sales of the CT specifically. The CT outsells the S/X in North America, but the S/X are also sold in Europe and Asia, where the CT is not available.

There is no way to sugarcoat it, the numbers aren't great. Troy Teslike predicted that CT sales would fall in 2025, although his estimate for 1Q 2025 specifically was paywalled.

 

[YDR37]

For context, all Tesla deliveries are trending down, this is not just about the Cybertruck. Tesla's total 1Q delivery numbers for recent years:

1Q 2022: 310,048
1Q 2023: 422,875
1Q 2024: 386,810
1Q 2025: 336,681

Basically, peak Tesla was in 2023. Tesla sales dropped in 2024, and they are still dropping as of 1Q 2025.

 

[carsly]

Practically, the current Cybertruck is likely a 20-25,000 unit/year vehicle. It's like the Hummer EV, most people who want something that large are still looking at ICE-first. Add in the edgy styling (I love it, others may not) and the fact that Cybertruck stands out in a crowd - tough in these animosity-fueled times - and it's no surprise sales are off quite a bit.

With the 3 refresh last year, the Model Y refresh just starting to rollout and a possible S/X refresh later this year AND a new low-cost vehicle due this year I could see 2025 being flattish but with growth resuming in 2026 and 2027 as the low-cost vehicle opens up a new buyer pool.

...and that's not including the effect of tariffs on imported vehicles and, soon thereafter, parts content. While tariffs will dampen the entire market (ICE and EV) Tesla should gain share and unit volume IMHO due to US manufacturing and highly local sourcing where possible.

 

[CTInProcess]

These are pretty good numbers and still the best selling EV Truck for the QTR. Nothing to be down about.

Soon enough it'll catch up to the whole F-150 Series which is at 190,000+

 

[FreeRadical1101]

I think the recall may have effected the delivery potential a lot as well. Maybe I am wrong.

 

[Gigahorse]

I think the recall may have effected the delivery potential a lot as well. Maybe I am wrong.

I think the cantrail recall definitely impacted deliveries, especially the end of the quarter push. But I wouldn't think the cantrail would impact production much which was also low.
Hopefully Tesla can figure out a way to get more CTs on the road this quarter.

 

[FreeRadical1101]

I read that they halted production for a time when they were doing to the recall as well, probably to revamp the assembly line to prevent having to go back and waste more materials and labor.

I think the cantrail recall definitely impacted deliveries, especially the end of the quarter push. But I wouldn't think the cantrail would impact production much which was also low.
Hopefully Tesla can figure out a way to get more CTs on the road this quarter.

 

[scottyah]

yeah the last three weeks were basically halted. A few people got theirs right before the end of the month (inc yours truly) but still a lot were held back.

I think it's a big contributing factor, they didn't even up the incentives at the end of the quarter like many were waiting for, just ebcause they knew they wouldn't be able to make the delivery by EoQ.

 

[dalton108]

yeah the last three weeks were basically halted. A few people got theirs right before the end of the month (inc yours truly) but still a lot were held back.

I think it's a big contributing factor, they didn't even up the incentives at the end of the quarter like many were waiting for, just ebcause they knew they wouldn't be able to make the delivery by EoQ.

Yeah, overall the Tesla hate and Elon rejection is not showing up in any major way in the data it appears. I do hope that people move on to the next thing and maybe figure out that whatever car they’re driving the chances that they supported a Nazi, someone Nazi adjacent or just a real asshole - somewhere in it’s development or supply chain history are close to 100%.

Nobody has clean hands. Stop trashing other people’s property and mind your own fucking business!

You want to protest? My car is not a public square!!! Boycott Tesla by continuing to not own one, or selling the one you have or talk shit about them online until you’re blue in the face! Or, I don’t know, fucking vote in every election without fail! Run for office — do something productive! ??‍

 

[kevdogsab]

Q2 sales will be the real test. Model Y refresh being changed over last quarter and being their best selling vehicle means that of course their sales would be down Q1, despite what people are trying to contribute to Musk. Also Berlin only makes the Model Y so how could their sales not be down. I'm also not sure if Chinese people care about US politics that much.

A lot of people also held out for the Juniper so now that factories are back to normal they should sell if there is still a market for tesla.

As far as CT, the real test will be when the RWD version comes out to see how they do. It's not like Rivian is selling 10k R1Ts a quarter, they are selling about 12k a year. If Tariff's kick in, the best selling ICE pickup trucks are going to be considerably more expensive too. I honestly kinda like the CT being elusive.

 

[dalton108]

I'm also not sure if Chinese people care about US politics that much.

Bingo! China is the real market that Tesla cares about right now. If folks like Kyle from out of spec are correct Tesla‘s bigger problem over there is that they are not really at the forefront of any of the most important technology.

They’re basically the only game in town here, but weirdly behind the curve there.

 

[devdrone6]

Apparently, just this week “the proud boys” have decided to enter the chat and made the Cybertruck their official vehicle that they intend to go around and try to protect.

Political parties taking to a symbol or being associated with a brand is always sad. Whether it be the CT, Swastika, or the rainbow. Unfortunate, but not much can be done to change the public ignorance of these things and their history.

 

[devdrone6]

You want to protest? My car is not a public square!!! Boycott Tesla by continuing to not own one, or selling the one you have or talk shit about them online until you’re blue in the face! Or, I don’t know, fucking vote in every election without fail! Run for office — do something productive! ??‍

?

 

[YDR37]

Tesla's 1Q 2025 deliveries came in significantly lower than analyst expectations. So now the analysts are trying to figure out why they missed.

Troy Teslike, for example, was very accurate on Tesla's production -- within 0.5%. However, his delivery estimate was too high, by 5.4%. So what happened to those produced Teslas?

The preliminary interpretation: it's looking like (1) demand for Teslas in the US/Canada was soft, and that (2) instead of slowing down US production to match the low demand, Tesla continued to run the production lines, and sent unusually high numbers of unsold vehicles into inventory instead.

If those interpretations are correct, then they would both be good reasons for Tesla to offer attractive incentives to US/Canada customers in 2Q 2025.

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