F-150 Lighting EV Cancelled. To be Replaced by EREV Hybrid Lightning

[Fugue]

I hate to say it, but let's face it, the legacy automakers have no medium to long term future. BEVs are the future of transportation. Ford will never be successful in the EV space. It would require massive changes in company culture, enormous capital investment, and a total revamping of their business model, not to mention dealing with autonomy which is clearly beyond their grasp. For Ford to survive would require rooting out the inefficiencies in every aspect of their business. That's not going to happen. Ford is a century and quarter-old company, approaching the end of its lifecycle, and attempting to hold back the EV/autonomous vehicle floodgates with ill-conceived, desperate plans to continue the production and sale of ICE vehicles.

I was just telling family last night that Tesla is several giant leaps ahead already. Legacy Auto is going to have to change their philosophies if they want to stay competitive.

Family: "Why is Ford cancelling the electric F150?"

Me: "Batteries are too expensive. The trucks weren't profitable."

Family: "How can Tesla do it?"

Me: "Let me count the ways..."

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[HaulingAss]

EREVs seem like a really good solution for people that want the benefits of an electric truck without the range/towing compromises of the current crop of BEVs, but at a potentially significant increase to complexity and maintenance (much like other hybrids).

I disagree.

For regular heavy towing use, EREVs have a serious problem. mainly the engine/generator is working hard the entire time. For the same reason, heavy towing is not ideal with the new breed of small "eco-tech" engines.

For that niche use, a diesel or gas engine is better than a EREV, and not nearly as complex or expensive. There are huge inefficiencies with burning gas or diesel in a small engine to generate electricity to run an electric motor.

A more viable solution is a pure EV truck, as long as the charging opportunities have good geographical density, good power, and are set up for trailers without unhitching. That will be the winning solution in time for the niche use of light truck long-distance towing. Tesla could fix this in one year simply by building a proliferation of true version 4 Superchargers set up for towing but the demand is too little to make it a top priority.

 

[HaulingAss]

Cybertruck survives due to the new gen tech. Also its market is not even trucks.

It was for me and many others. The Cybertruck is a far better work truck than the F-150 gas burner it replaced. The fact that my Model 3 Performance mostly just sits there, when it was my main driver pre-Cybertruck, is just a side-effect of being not only good as a truck, but also as a nice car. My F-150 couldn't satisfy both roles and it was a worse truck in every single way except for range, which isn't even a real consideration for how I use a truck.

 

[dalton108]

For me, not having to work with dealerships is enough to move me from any eventual Ford solution. But you could also argue that by going for a range solution, Ford are effectively narrowing their buyer base to towers alone.

We all know why they are doing this. Ford makes effectively no post-purchase profit on any EV as there is so little to service. Throw an i3 type range extender in there and bang! now you have all the standard ICE service mark ups that keep the dealerships happy.

Maybe the reason I didn't buy a lightning is not confined to me. It was (at least initially) costly, had crap software, made you work with a dealership, poor range, no new tech and slow recharging. Add your own additional point here. (no FSD option, etc.)

Totally respect and agree with what you’re saying.

I’ve never owned a Ford before in my life and never would. That’s a southern tribal thing. You either drink Coke or Pepsi not both and when you pick a car company you stick with it we’re a GM family with maybe your occasional Dodge/Buick.

@SCTesla just pretty much nailed it in my opinion. EV trucks just don’t get the job done it doesn’t matter who’s making them. Elon perfectly explained the problem at the cyber truck launch event and then thought that he could borrow Steve Jobs’s reality distortion field and make a 300 mile range truck happen. He could not. Nor can anyone else.

Truck people are practical people. Again, having somebody who is constitutionally incapable of understanding people solely being in charge of what the market is and how you’re going to address it is not a recipe for success.

I will be eternally thankful that Tesla had the audacity to create the Cybertruck and that I was able to get one. No other company would be crazy enough and powerful enough to make this happen! Hooray!!!

But, between the unnecessary political self-sabotage and the misread of what regular truck buyers actually want this little experiment was never going to be a commercial success. Again, I said “Edsel” in the early days that’s exactly what it is. Technological tour de force; commercial flop.

Dudes that have 300 mile range trucks to sell can tell you all they want to that, “that’s all you need” and that, “nobody really drives 300 miles or tows anything with their trucks,” but statistics do not give you a perfectly clear picture of reality.

Nobody actually has 2.5 kids!!! Some people have one, some people have three! Some of those people will buy a Suburban because it’s the only vehicle that will hold their entire family. Some others are going to buy a Suburban because they assume that they or their kids will be popular enough that the truck will always be full even though there’s only three of them.

That statistically people don’t tow anything with their truck or drive more than 300 miles doesn’t mean that the vehicle being capable of doing those things is not important to consumer. Only somebody on the spectrum would not understand that it’s just as important to not get laughed off of the jobsite because of your ‘fruity little EVl’ as it is to consider the actual capabilities that you allegedly need.

This is ignoring, of course, that EV’s come with serious compromises with regard to truck-stuff capability. It doesn’t matter if I can tow 11,000 pounds if I can only tow it 50 miles and everybody is pointing and laughing when I pull up to the jobsite to hitch up. Intangibles matter.

All that said, I think like SC said, Ford is making a very smart move here. At this point, they’re really just following what VW Group is doing with Scout and I for one cannot wait until I get my Terra Harvester.

I have done a big pivot on hybrids just because I’m a pragmatist. I have talked lots of people out of buying a hybrid into just getting a BEV simply because of what you’ve mentioned - complexity.

But, having been a fairly early adopter of EVs and dealing with the various pros and cons from our first Leaf to my CB (7 cars in total now) I think I’m uniquely qualified to critique what these cars can and cannot do - certainly as it pertains to my lifestyle.

S3XY - are the very best at what they do and no ice vehicle can compete with them. Full stop. In my opinion, anyone who’s buying a car in this category and not going with not just EV, but a Tesla— is near-literally shooting themselves into the foot. As Elon said many years ago, “you might as well buy a horse and buggy.”

But if you’re going off road, towing, traveling long distances, going to be spending time and remote places EV’s are not ready for you and they are not up to the task.

So I have gone from you stay away from hybrids to realizing right now there are two places where they are probably tops:

1. Truck stuff
2. Supercar performance

I’m all in on Scout and I have come dangerously close in the last couple of weeks to swapping my ‘21 Z51 C8 for a new E-Ray! This is despite the fact that even Tadge Juechter conceded (he was actually bragging) that the E-Ray convertible is the most complex/complicated vehicle that GM has ever engineered.

Both vehicles are more complicated than I would really like, but both of them use the benefits of the combined technologies to make the sum greater than all of the parts. You just can’t argue with the performance.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

"FORD F-150: The Prius of Trucks"

Actually, the Ford PowerBoost is the Prius of trucks (full hybrid). It’s not going anywhere as it is a standard F-150. I had a couple PowerBoosts and one Platinum Lightning. They were good trucks for what they were, but no comparison to the CT.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla should absolutely make a shorter 3-row SUV version of the Cybertruck.

I think this could be a very successful vehicle, like the Rivian R1S outselling the R1T over three times.

Not everyone has the use of a pickup truck, while a roomy cabin version would be very popular.

Also all the other Tesla models have two versions using the same platform.

Even though I'm not a fan of SUVs, I have to admit, it would sell very well. It would be a lot cheaper to make too, with less stainless, less payload capacity, and less castings.

That said, I need a truck, that would be far too limiting in terms of what I could fit in it.

 

[henchman24]

Capacity is simply the big issue with towing. You need to throw a ton of batteries to do long distance towing, and the density/chemistries remain issue. The Semi works because there is enough room (physically in the chassis and in the price) to justify huge battery packs. When you're talking about a 60-90k truck... the limit while being profitable is in the mid 100s kWh and 225-250 if you're willing to take a bath on it. As prices for batteries continues to decrease and chemistry changes allow more energy dense batteries, this will potentially change. We're simply not there yet.

EREVs will try to solve the issue buy having a gas generator. There is significant complexity to this, but it can solve the towing range issue. It'll do so while running an engine at a fairly high load consistently, sacrificing efficiency, adding complexity and a need for very good software (which outside of Tesla and some Chinese automakers, they all suck at) to control all of this... with a lot more maintenance.

Now I think the question is... is the juice worth the squeeze? All of this extra complexity, lowered payload (and thus lower tongue weight which will lead to lower towing ability), inefficiency... to make an EV that can tow longer than ~150 miles without charging. A diesel truck (even with today's emissions complexities) is way less complex than that... and a better tool for the job if you frequently tow long distances. A pure EV truck is far more efficient and a better driving vehicle as long as you don't tow long distances, it is a far superior daily. This seems like an answer to a question that nobody should be asking. If you tow a lot for long distances, buy a diesel. If you don't tow long distances frequently, get an EV. If you have significant mixed use, a gasser heavy duty 1/2 ton or 3/4 might be the best mix. Forcing an EREV into this gives kind of the worst of all worlds....

IMO most (not all) people really do overestimate how much they actually tow. If you never go beyond ~150mi towing, or that only happens once a month consistently... then the downsides of EV towing are no big deal. It is an hour or so a month inconvenience for all the upside elsewhere (this is the camp I'm in). If you're in the camp of 3-4+ times a month of towing like that, simply get a different vehicle and an EREV won't be the one to get.

 

[HaulingAss]

I dont think anyone was going to get excited about a gas power Tesla.

Don't kid yourself, Chevron and Exxon would practically cream their suits if Tesla announced they were going to start producing gas powered vehicles!

 

[HaulingAss]

Capacity is simply the big issue with towing. You need to throw a ton of batteries to do long distance towing, and the density/chemistries remain issue. The Semi works because there is enough room (physically in the chassis and in the price) to justify huge battery packs. When you're talking about a 60-90k truck... the limit while being profitable is in the mid 100s kWh and 225-250 if you're willing to take a bath on it. As prices for batteries continues to decrease and chemistry changes allow more energy dense batteries, this will potentially change. We're simply not there yet.

Big batteries are not the answer for light truck towing, fast, convenient charging is. I will point out that Tesla always designs vehicles for the current state of technology and the market. That's why they were selling EVs with positive gross margins all the way back to the original Roadster. It was dumb of GM to put big batteries in the Silverado and Sierra and plan to sell them at a huge loss. Just dumb. There was no rational reason for that except for their desire to "prove" that people don't want EVs (but that they were doing everything in their power to try). They used electric trucks as a way to extend the era of gas powered profit centers.

Now I think the question is... is the juice worth the squeeze? All of this extra complexity, lowered payload (and thus lower tongue weight which will lead to lower towing ability), inefficiency... to make an EV that can tow longer than ~150 miles without charging. A diesel truck (even with today's emissions complexities) is way less complex than that... and a better tool for the job if you frequently tow long distances. A pure EV truck is far more efficient and a better driving vehicle as long as you don't tow long distances, it is a far superior daily. This seems like an answer to a question that nobody should be asking. If you tow a lot for long distances, buy a diesel. If you don't tow long distances frequently, get an EV. If you have significant mixed use, a gasser heavy duty 1/2 ton or 3/4 might be the best mix. Forcing an EREV into this gives kind of the worst of all worlds....

Agreed!

IMO most (not all) people really do overestimate how much they actually tow. If you never go beyond ~150mi towing, or that only happens once a month consistently... then the downsides of EV towing are no big deal. It is an hour or so a month inconvenience for all the upside elsewhere (this is the camp I'm in). If you're in the camp of 3-4+ times a month of towing like that, simply get a different vehicle and an EREV won't be the one to get.

Yep!

 

[jimbobb23]

OK, to be fair, the Lightning (and Cybertruck, for that matter) would be flying off the lots with 2x the range at half the price. Lithium cells are still just too damn expensive per kWh and don't have sufficient energy density (and/or don't charge fast enough).

A Lightning with $10k of batteries replaced by a $3k gas-powered range-extender would address both issues, and still be an EV at heart. If priced competitively, it could be a big seller.

Before any of you get excited, there is zero chance that Tesla will ever sell a gas-powered vehicle

2x the range and half the price is 4x times the energy/weight at same price. Check back in maybe 15-25 years because that is a very tall order.

 

[HaulingAss]

You’re entitled to your opinion. Every other electric car on the market is. In particular those in a similar price range and size that also serve similar functions.

The fact is, the Cybertruck competes mainly with gas powered vehicles. Elon understands this, that's why he's successful. Most other manufacturers made the mistake of thinking EVs mostly compete with other EVs (but all vehicles perform the same function of getting people and gear from A to B). It mostly comes down to cost and convenience.

 

[CyberGus]

For regular heaving towing use, EREVs have a serious problem. mainly the engine/generator is working hard the entire time.

Why is that a problem? Aren't ICE engines running the entire time?? Generator engines are designed to run continuously.

There are huge inefficiencies with burning gas or diesel in a small engine to generate electricity to run an electric motor.

I'd prefer a pure-EV solution, but an onboard gasoline generator can produce about 5kWh/gallon which is reasonable. Refilling is as fast as any ICE vehicle.

I'm no fan of hybrids, but I can appreciate that there are some use-cases where it makes sense.

 

[henchman24]

Big batteries are not the answer for light truck towing, fast, convenient charging is.

You really need ~200mi of range when towing long distances at a minimum (I'd argue 250+) and combine that with fast and convenient charging. Anybody who tows long distances isn't going to want to stop every 60-80 minutes to wait 30 minutes on a charge. Even cut that to 20 minutes (which we are not close to that yet), and it is still too much. You can't get around it. Physics is undefeated and we can bend everything we can, but there is simply a significant amount of energy needed to tow. Towing any real distance consistently will simply need a lot of energy capacity AND a way to replenish that capacity quickly.

If people tow once in a while, none of that is needed. It is a minor inconvenience. If there is frequent towing... the answer is capacity and charging. Exactly what Tesla is doing with the Semi.

 

[CyberGus]

2x the range and half the price is 4x times the energy/weight at same price. Check back in maybe 15-25 years because that is a very tall order.

Indeed. That's why the hybrid solution is economically viable currently, even though it adds parts and complexity.

Range Anxiety will be eliminated once we get those promised Solid State cells that can charge in 3 minutes... whenever that happens lol

 

[HaulingAss]

Ford is shooting themselves in the foot by going the “easy” EREV route. Battery cell technology is moving at a rapid pace and 450 mile “real world” battery packs powered by solid state battery cells may be in volume production by the time the new truck rolls into dealerships.

Oh, yeah, like the solid state battery that Toyota has claimed was two years from commercial production since 2012 or before? How come no one around here craps on Toyota for missed deadlines/vaporware but call Tesla out at the drop of a hat?

Seriously.

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