Tesla Q4 Earnings Call: Unsupervised FSD Robotaxi Service Coming June & Much More!

Old Spice · Jan 29, 2025

Tesla’s Q4 Earnings call was tonight. Here’s a quick summary by Nic Cruz Patane on X:

Elon Musk says 2025 will be most important year in Tesla’s history.
Unsupervised Paid Robotaxi Service will be launching June 2025 in Austin, Texas.
Tesla will launch their own fleet in Austin at first, then customer cars maybe next year.
Tesla is confident Unsupervised FSD will be available in many cities of the US by the end of 2025, not just California & Texas.
Elon is confident Unsupervised FSD will be available everywhere in North America in 2026.
Owners will be able to add their own vehicles to the Tesla Robotaxi fleet sometime next year. Owners will be able to add or subtract their car from the Robotaxi fleet in 2026 like Airbnb.
• Elon “Everything else will pale in terms of revenue when compared to Optimus”.
Tesla confirms they will be building a 3rd Megapack factory.
Tesla says they’re getting lots of interest from automakers who want to license FSD.
All factories will be producing the new Model Y next month.
Elon: "Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company"
Tesla could deliver Optimus robots to other companies to work sometime in Q3/Q4 2026.
Elon: "The honest answer is we're going to need to upgrade HW3 computers for those who purchased the FSD package"
The only thing holding back worldwide Unsupervised FSD is regulatory approval.
Elon predicts Unsupervised FSD worldwide by the end of 2026.
Unsupervised FSD is a little more challenging to train in China due to unique road rules. They’re confident that they’ll be able to get it done.
Elon: “All transport will be Autonomous and Electric, including aircrafts”

And here's a summary of the business side of things:

Financial Performance:

Revenue: The company reported revenues of $25.7 billion, a 2% increase from the previous year, but below analysts' expectations of $27.2 billion.
Net Income: Tesla's net income for the quarter was $2.3 billion, a significant decrease from the $7.93 billion reported in Q4 2023.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): The company achieved an EPS of $0.66, meeting analyst estimates.

Vehicle Deliveries:

Quarterly Deliveries: Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4 2024, with 471,930 being Model 3/Y and 23,640 from other models.
Annual Deliveries: For the full year, deliveries totaled 1,789,226 vehicles, marking the first annual decline in over a decade.

Profit Margins:

Gross Profit Margin: The gross profit margin decreased to 16.3% in Q4, down from 19.8% in the previous quarter, influenced by reduced average selling prices and increased operating expenses.

Energy Business Growth:

Energy Storage Deployments: Tesla's energy generation and storage revenue surged 113% year-over-year in Q4, reaching $3.1 billion.

Future Outlook:

New Models: Tesla plans to introduce more affordable models, with production slated to begin in the first half of 2025.

Here's the Q4 earnings call:

sys_env · Jan 29, 2025

Was there an update on the point of sale IRA tax incentive for CT?

SteelMyHeart · Jan 29, 2025

"The only thing holding back worldwide Unsupervised FSD is regulatory approval."

And direct sunlight in the camera, rain, dirty cameras, school zones and school buses to name a few more.

SCTesla · Jan 29, 2025

SteelMyHeart said:
"The only thing holding back worldwide Unsupervised FSD is regulatory approval."

And direct sunlight in the camera, rain, dirty cameras, school zones and school buses to name a few more.

No one who understand autonomy believes that statement. It's true for Europe, but not the US. Elon repeats it all the time (depending on regulatory approval, FSD will be available anywhere in the US) There are more states in the US than not that require no approval. FSD just isn't ready. They will start with geofencing in Austin and expand from there.

I doubt normal owners see unsupervised this year, even in Austin or the 1 CA city. 2 cities in 2025, more in 2026.

Also Elon said 2025 would be a relatively flat year, but 2026 would be huge and 2028 would be the biggest year in its history.

SCTesla · Jan 29, 2025

Also, there will not be a CyberSUV or Cybervan as they said stainless and air bending will not be on future products outside of the CT.

That doesn't mean no van or larger SUV, just not a stainless version.

hcheetah · Jan 29, 2025

Old Spice said:
Owners will be able to add their own vehicles to the Tesla Robotaxi fleet sometime next year. Owners will be able to add or subtract their car from the Robotaxi fleet in 2026 like Airbnb.

I wonder how Tesla will enable existing cars when most models cannot close door automatically.

SCTesla · Jan 29, 2025

hcheetah said:
I wonder how Tesla will enable existing cars when most models cannot close door automatically.

Or charge? Or clean?

Most of the fleet is HW3 and they still aren't sure if it will work. Elon predicting things 1+ years out is rarely fleshed out.

edit: I missed him saying this:

“We are going to have to upgrade Hardware 3 for people who bought FSD. That’s the honest answer. It’s going to be painful and difficult but that’s what we’re going to have to do,”

NSCyber · Jan 29, 2025

SteelMyHeart said:
"The only thing holding back worldwide Unsupervised FSD is regulatory approval."

And direct sunlight in the camera, rain, dirty cameras, school zones and school buses to name a few more.

Story of my life with FSD…the direct sunlight one is a huge problem in socal with all the sun!

dalton108 · Jan 29, 2025

SCTesla said:
Or charge? Or clean?

Most of the fleet is HW3 and they still aren't sure if it will work. Elon predicting things 1+ years out is rarely fleshed out.

edit: I missed him saying this:

“We are going to have to upgrade Hardware 3 for people who bought FSD. That’s the honest answer. It’s going to be painful and difficult but that’s what we’re going to have to do,”

Painful and difficult? Like getting people hubcaps and lightbars? ?

rlhamil · Jan 29, 2025

NSCyber said:
Story of my life with FSD…the direct sunlight one is a huge problem in socal with all the sun!

Or Arizona or Texas, especially the flat parts.

Even in places with real trees (not just palm trees and brush and cactuses), insofar as a lot aren't evergreens, the sun can be a problem anywhere in winter, depending on direction and time of day. Heck, that's annoying to humans, the flashing light through the bare branches.

rlhamil · Jan 29, 2025

dalton108 said:
Painful and difficult? Like getting people hubcaps and lightbars? ?

More like coming up with an HW4 board that will work plugged into an HW3 car, and likely replacing some of the cameras and whatever else that requires. That's some design (and installation procedure) work and expense, as well as a lot of expense if they cover the cost.

If the latter, it wouldn't surprise me if they offered a significant (but a lot less than 100%, of course) trade-in incentive as an alternative.

dalton108 · Jan 29, 2025

rlhamil said:
More like coming up with an HW4 board that will work plugged into an HW3 car, and likely replacing some of the cameras and whatever else that requires. That's some design (and installation procedure) work and expense, as well as a lot of expense if they cover the cost.

Kind of my point. They’ve made the other one look difficult. And it certainly has been painful for the … what(?) … 1200 of us affected?

This sounds more like mission non-possible. This is pretty favorable ground (I think everyone can agree) and the responses here are going to be just about “best case scenario” in comparison to the public at large … and these ones ain’t exactly reflecting much confidence. ?

YDR37 · Jan 29, 2025

sys_env said:
Was there an update on the point of sale IRA tax incentive for CT?

Nothing helpful. From the 4Q 2024 Shareholder Deck:

We expect Cybertruck to be eligible for the IRA consumer tax credit, helping to approve affordability and access for even more customers.

dalton108 · Jan 29, 2025

rlhamil said:
More like coming up with an HW4 board that will work plugged into an HW3 car, and likely replacing some of the cameras and whatever else that requires. That's some design (and installation procedure) work and expense, as well as a lot of expense if they cover the cost.

If the latter, it wouldn't surprise me if they offered a significant (but a lot less than 100%, of course) trade-in incentive as an alternative.

My recollection was that the whole kit and caboodle was designed so that it could be replaced if necessary. But I’m not even talking about any of that, I’m just talking about the simple logistics of giving people - who already paid for them in full - hubcaps and light bars. It has been, and continues to be a fiasco. Full stop.

And the number of people affected was minuscule compared to the population size that would be affected by this. I’ll tell you right now, I don’t believe that they can do it.

They can’t service people’s cars timely now! What are we even talking about?!

scottf200 · Jan 29, 2025

Old Spice said:
Unsupervised FSD is a little more challenging to train in China due to unique road rules. They’re confident that they’ll be able to get it done.

Kyle from OOS just got back from testing a bunch of cars in China. He has a lot of Tesla FSD seat time. He say not only do they have the equivalent of FSD but multiple car companies have it and compete with each other. It is only unique here. Tesla FSD is not available in China. That is when the very interesting comparisons will begin.

Tesla Q4 Earnings Call: Unsupervised FSD Robotaxi Service Coming June & Much More!

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