SCTesla

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I think they thought they'd be selling 250,000 of these a year, and instead, it's been more like 50,000 right now. Therefore, it's in the S/X range, except there haven't been years of them being produced, so it's literally the lowest vehicle count Model Tesla has. Their resources are spent accordingly. This should change sometime next year though, as I estimate once "unsupervised" Self-Driving is released (even if it's just on highways), demand for ALL Tesla will go through the roof and they'll be producing 250,000 Cybertrucks per year!
FSD Unsupervised is years away on consumer vehicles and it will not make the CT sell 250k. I don't think it will have a meaningful increase in sales unless they reduce the price. 80k+ has a limited demand.
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btcrealm

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So what what they are saying is that with the right software I can make my frunk light bar brighter ; P
 

YDR37

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I think they thought they'd be selling 250,000 of these a year
Tesla hasn't revealed the exact Cybertruck production capacity at the Austin factory, but they do say that it is ">125,000" per year. The real number could be in the 200,000 - 250,000 range.
and instead, it's been more like 50,000 right now.
Actually lower than that. For 2024, Cox estimated CT sales in the US at 38,965. Add a few thousand for Canada and Mexico. So the 2024 total was probably a bit over 40,000.

For 2025 (through three quarters), Cox has CT sales in the US at 16,097. Sales in Fourth Quarter 2025 are expected to be low. Add a few thousand for Canada, Mexico, and possibly South Korea. So the 2025 total will probably be in the 20,000 to 25,000 range.
Therefore, it's in the S/X range, except there haven't been years of them being produced, so it's literally the lowest vehicle count Model Tesla has.
Correct. Tesla has only produced about 65,000 Cybertrucks total. The CT currently sells about as well as the S/X combined (the CT sells better in US/Canada, but the S/X sell better in Europe and Asia, where the CT is not available). However, the S/X historically sold at relatively high levels, up to 100,000 per year. So the S/X on the road currently outnumber CTs by a factor of around 10 to 1. For the 3/Y, it would be more like 100 to 1.
 

mcm4ss

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Adding Tron is an update.
Correcting a regulatory non-compliance is a recall.
well, be that as it may, this truck is so damn fun to drive and does so much so well these " recalls" just seem to hurt it for no reason. Defending I guess but good info.
 


YDR37

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FSD Unsupervised is years away on consumer vehicles and it will not make the CT sell 250k. I don't think it will have a meaningful increase in sales unless they reduce the price. 80k+ has a limited demand.
FSD (Supervised), in its current form, is not driving sales. FSD is now a standard feature on the Model S and Model X, yet those models are not selling well.

And it's not just about the price, because other expensive EVs in the same class are selling better. In the EV luxury sedan category, the Lucid Air now outsells the Model S; in the EV large SUV category, the Rivian R1S outsells the Model X. Obviously neither the Air nor the R1S come with FSD, but it doesn't seem to matter.

If Tesla can deliver Unsupervised FSD on consumer vehicles, that could be a game-changer, even if was expensive. However, it does seem like that could be years away. Tesla's current goal is to operate robotaxis without human safety monitors in parts of Austin by the end of the year. Even if they meet that goal, it could still be a long way from there to "Tesla assumes all liability for autonomous operation of millions of existing vehicles everywhere".
 
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Speedr

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FSD Unsupervised is years away on consumer vehicles and it will not make the CT sell 250k. I don't think it will have a meaningful increase in sales unless they reduce the price. 80k+ has a limited demand.

Just got V14 on my Model S and LITERALLY didn't touch the steering wheel nor pedals the entire afternoon "drive". That included a noon on Sunday Costco stop (it went around half the parking lot before finding a parking space), a Best Buy stop (not too busy, parked quickly), and a grocery store stop (busy, but quick park job) before going back home. It's amazing (and that's coming from a really good V13, at least here in Florida). I'd say it's almost the same type change as from V12 to V13. Hopefully we'll have it on Cybertruck soon so everyone on here can experience it themselves.

So I'd say we're VERY close. Also, the Robotaxi's are the pathfinders for us. Once they are established in an area, I would expect unsupervised Self-Driving would come to Tesla owners shortly thereafter (i.e. validation there aren't any weird issues with the area).

To be fair, people always underestimate change and what the future will look like and when it will come...
 

SCTesla

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Just got V14 on my Model S and LITERALLY didn't touch the steering wheel nor pedals the entire afternoon "drive". That included a noon on Sunday Costco stop (it went around half the parking lot before finding a parking space), a Best Buy stop (not too busy, parked quickly), and a grocery store stop (busy, but quick park job) before going back home. It's amazing (and that's coming from a really good V13, at least here in Florida). I'd say it's almost the same type change as from V12 to V13. Hopefully we'll have it on Cybertruck soon so everyone on here can experience it themselves.

So I'd say we're VERY close. Also, the Robotaxi's are the pathfinders for us. Once they are established in an area, I would expect unsupervised Self-Driving would come to Tesla owners shortly thereafter (i.e. validation there aren't any weird issues with the area).

To be fair, people always underestimate change and what the future will look like and when it will come...
V14 is an improvement, but it's not FSDU and as Elon said they haven't through too much about FSDU for consumer cars at this point. The RTs will still need remote supervision, even after safety drivers are removed. Tesla won't have the resources to do that on all vehicles and RT in Austin has it's own FSD stack with geofenced roads to avoid which are difficult for FSD to maneuver. For FSDU to be released to all, it has to be able to drive pretty much everywhere.

That's why most believe FSDU for us is a year or more away.

Also, as good as FSD is, it only has 12% take rate. People just aren't spending money on it, despite all of the videos hyping it up.
 

Speedr

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V14 is an improvement, but it's not FSDU and as Elon said they haven't through too much about FSDU for consumer cars at this point. The RTs will still need remote supervision, even after safety drivers are removed. Tesla won't have the resources to do that on all vehicles and RT in Austin has it's own FSD stack with geofenced roads to avoid which are difficult for FSD to maneuver. For FSDU to be released to all, it has to be able to drive pretty much everywhere.

That's why most believe FSDU for us is a year or more away.

Also, as good as FSD is, it only has 12% take rate. People just aren't spending money on it, despite all of the videos hyping it up.
OK, one last response, then I'll concede we just have different opinions (which is great btw).

I think the "remote supervision" is going to be more for getting a car out of a navigation jam/paradox. But they are adding "Reasoning" to the AI in the next point release or two, which I'd bet will take care of that. Unlike Waymo (or most other automated taxis), Tesla has always shot for not needing those. That's why I think we get Unsupervised Self-Driving sometime next year.

Will you agree with me on one point? On the Interstate, they won't ever use "remote supervision" since it would take too long to connect/hand-off before something happened. Agree? If so, I'd argue that they could release Unsupervised Self-Driving just the Interstates then and that would significantly move the sales needle and soak up all excess capacity. Again, if you don't agree, that's fine...
 

SCTesla

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OK, one last response, then I'll concede we just have different opinions (which is great btw).

I think the "remote supervision" is going to be more for getting a car out of a navigation jam/paradox. But they are adding "Reasoning" to the AI in the next point release or two, which I'd bet will take care of that. Unlike Waymo (or most other automated taxis), Tesla has always shot for not needing those. That's why I think we get Unsupervised Self-Driving sometime next year.

Will you agree with me on one point? On the Interstate, they won't ever use "remote supervision" since it would take too long to connect/hand-off before something happened. Agree? If so, I'd argue that they could release Unsupervised Self-Driving just the Interstates then and that would significantly move the sales needle and soak up all excess capacity. Again, if you don't agree, that's fine...
I don't think we have any proof that FSD drives sales much. The 12% take rate is subscribers and purchases combined. That's not good.

The "reasoning" you speak of is for parking, not for bypassing the need for remote assistance. We've seen Tesla on hiring spree for remote assistance operators and people to go physically to the car if a situation occurs (I would assume this would be an accident of some sort).

I think there's next to 0 chance we get FSDU next year as a whole. At best, some areas like Austin it could pop up as available in a limited scope, but Elon and Ashok have been pretty clear that they aren't currently focused on FSDU or RT for consumers. They need/want to solve it for their internal fleet first then they will figure out all the details. Even if Tesla doesn't directly take liability for FSDU, if the car wrecks, they will sue.

To your last point, Tesla/Waymo, all autonomous companies go to the highway last as there is less complexity, but wrecks are fatal. So I don't see FSDU coming just to the interstate first because of that. RT doesn't drive on the interstate until the driver switches to behind the wheel.

So...in summary:

FSD is continuously getting better, but it's still a ways off with V14, there are many edge cases we've seen...i.e. cars passing school busses, going the wrong way, cutting turn lanes, getting confused, hitting chains, etc. It will continue to get better.

I don't think we are close for consumer FSDU. I think we could see very limited unsupervised RTs in specific areas of Austin (not the entire city) and that could widen in small deployments for the next year.

I think by the end of next year we could see a handful of cities with Tesla owned FSDU (best case scenario)....and massive expansion in 2027.

Only after this has occurred will we, as consumers, will see it in scale. Elon has been clearish about this at the last 2 earnings calls. They are working on it internally first and will figure out FSDU for consumers at a later date.

All that, I don't think it will increase the same of a vehicle like the CT massively. The biggest things the CT could use is a price drop, but I could see adoption on the 3/Y increase dramatically when FSDU comes out.

The Tesla haters hate all things Telsa...they don't want EVs, want to drive themselves, etc. There will be a long road to break those barriers.
 


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I had people flashing their brights at me when I was on low beams. After the update that no longer happens. Plus, auto high beams seems to work better now.
 

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-recalls-more-63-000-163443277.html

Updated with recall notice:

OCTOBER 15, 2025 NHTSA CAMPAIGN NUMBER: 25V699000

Front Parking Lights May Be Too Bright/FMVSS 108

Parking lights that are too bright can reduce visibility of oncoming drivers, increasing the risk of a crash.

NHTSA ID Number: 25V699000
Manufacturer Tesla, Inc.
Components EXTERIOR LIGHTING, ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
Potential Number of Units Affected: 63619

Summary
Tesla, Inc. (Tesla) is recalling certain 2024-2026 Cybertruck vehicles operating software prior to 2025.38.3. The vehicle controller software may cause the front parking lights to be too bright and exceed the maximum light output, adversely affecting the vision of other drivers. As such, these vehicles fail to comply with the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) number 108, "Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment."

Remedy
Tesla released an over-the-air (OTA) software update, free of charge. Owner notification letters are expected to be mailed December 13, 2025. Owners may contact Tesla customer service at 1-877-798-3752. Tesla's number for this recall is SB-25-00-008.
Is that why I get people flashing their headlights at me so often?? Sheesh...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-recalls-more-63-000-163443277.html

Updated with recall notice:

OCTOBER 15, 2025 NHTSA CAMPAIGN NUMBER: 25V699000

Front Parking Lights May Be Too Bright/FMVSS 108

Parking lights that are too bright can reduce visibility of oncoming drivers, increasing the risk of a crash.

NHTSA ID Number: 25V699000
Manufacturer Tesla, Inc.
Components EXTERIOR LIGHTING, ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
Potential Number of Units Affected: 63619

Summary
Tesla, Inc. (Tesla) is recalling certain 2024-2026 Cybertruck vehicles operating software prior to 2025.38.3. The vehicle controller software may cause the front parking lights to be too bright and exceed the maximum light output, adversely affecting the vision of other drivers. As such, these vehicles fail to comply with the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) number 108, "Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment."

Remedy
Tesla released an over-the-air (OTA) software update, free of charge. Owner notification letters are expected to be mailed December 13, 2025. Owners may contact Tesla customer service at 1-877-798-3752. Tesla's number for this recall is SB-25-00-008.
Is that why I've had people flashing their brights at me so often?? Sheesh...
 
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pae1andonly

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I've only just noticed how very similar the low beam and hi beam indicators are. I might have some blue/green color limitations which no doubt are not helpful.
 

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I am on 2025.38.6 and I just scheduled an appointment for my accent lights peeling and they added this to the bottom of my service visit:

Tesla Cybertruck Tesla recalls Cybertrucks - front parking lights may be too bright (potential vehicles affected: 63,619) Screenshot_20251028_103606_Tesla
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