Massive download, FSD imminent?

[Dixinurmouth]

The computer had NEVER known how to turn the steering wheel. FSD has always provided steer-by-wire and drive-by-wire.

But there’s dynamic steering ratio and four wheel steering. And remember the thousands of lines of C++ code Elon said the nn replaced? That’s what’s missing. They’re not writing all that C++ control code for Cybertruck.

 

[Dixinurmouth]

They could enable AP now, but only for city streets. Here’s why I believe that is the case. Basic rules based AP code for city streets is dead and has been replaced with FSD code, just with features disabled. This is not yet true for the highway stack. All teslas are still running the order pre V12 rules based AP code for highways. We know this for a couple of reason. One being that the same quirks with lane changes, lane merges, and nervousness around semi’s which aren’t centered in their lane all still exist even in the latest V12 builds. The second is that auto speed limit turns off as soon as you enter a highway. This is the most obvious sign that the car has switched from V12 code to the older V11 highway stack.

Why does this matter for Cybertruck? Simply, Tesla is not putting forth the very large effort to manually change the rules based V11 code to teach it how to drive Cybertruck. Instead, they are waiting till the neural net based V12 highway stack is ready and then let it train itself how to drive Cybertruck using the every expanding compute capacity Tesla is building.

Hell, even the code for adaptive cruise that is being used for Cybertruck is very old. It’s so old that I discovered that I could set the max cruise speed to 90mph on my return from Ohio to Florida this weekend. This is odd in and of itself as the limit for AP has been 85MPH ever since Tesla ditched radar for vision only and Cybertruck doesn’t have radar.

I believe we will know that FSD 12.5 is imminent when we see Tesla making the rounds testing Chuck’s unprotected left turn with Cybertrucks.

i think this is very close to the actual reason if not exactly it. And good observation on the cruise control behavior. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Woodrick]

Folks, it has nothing to do with the functionality of the existing product. They've just got to make some modifications to the code and then put it through some training.
When you look at the list of priorities, porting to the Cybertruck is neat the bottom.
It's the Model 3 and other legacy vehicles with USS first, then non-USS next. And below that it the Cybertruck. These are statements that Elon have made.

Right not there's some big efforts getting the basic product up to the next level. The long wait that is now happening since the last version is often a good indicator of additional functionality.

The fact that the Cybertruck is on a 2024.20.x release is an example of it getting the little, pretty feature updates, when the FSD vehicle are still back on 2024.14.9 and 2024.3.25. When you see the rest of the fleet coming up to 2024,14.20+ is when you'll see the Cybertruck getting FSD.

 

[65SoYoLO]

I thought Elon said "late June" for FSD on the CT? The current automatic cruise control just isn't that good....

If you like living in the edge, it's perfect!

 

[JohnnyDadBod]

I thought Elon said "late June" for FSD on the CT? The current automatic cruise control just isn't that good....

He did state this on X and I believe mentioned something similar during the Shareholders call, though I didn't get to listen in to know for sure. Like all other things FSD related, there are Elon's aspirations and what actually happens in the development pipeline. It's possible that with the apparent delays of the 12.4.x branch that 12.5 may slip past June. It could also be possible that 12.5 will be prioritized given 12.4.x's delays but that is absolute conjecture/wishful thinking on my part.

 

[SCTesla]

I thought Elon said "late June" for FSD on the CT? The current automatic cruise control just isn't that good....

"Late June" was for 12.5, which would have provided FSD/AP for the CT. That was assuming 12.4 was in wide release at the beginning of June. 12.4 still is in testing/validation and we are at least 2 weeks away from general release judging off prior releases.

So best case, maybe a month away from 12.5, worst case...could be a long time.

Elon's end of "_" have sometimes been over a year off. They aren't real estimates.

 

[JohnnyDadBod]

Folks, it has nothing to do with the functionality of the existing product. They've just got to make some modifications to the code and then put it through some training.
When you look at the list of priorities, porting to the Cybertruck is neat the bottom.
It's the Model 3 and other legacy vehicles with USS first, then non-USS next. And below that it the Cybertruck. These are statements that Elon have made.

Right not there's some big efforts getting the basic product up to the next level. The long wait that is now happening since the last version is often a good indicator of additional functionality.

The fact that the Cybertruck is on a 2024.20.x release is an example of it getting the little, pretty feature updates, when the FSD vehicle are still back on 2024.14.9 and 2024.3.25. When you see the rest of the fleet coming up to 2024,14.20+ is when you'll see the Cybertruck getting FSD.

Presumably, FSD 12.5 will be on 2024.20.x or newer branch given that all CT's are being updated to 2020.20.x otherwise there wouldn't be any trucks to test with since Tesla never back tracks on builds with firmware releases.

12.4 is on the 2020.15.x branch and vehicles which have been in FSD since 10.x are being kept on 2020.14.x while those who came in with V11 are being advanced to 2020.20.x builds.

 

[JohnnyDadBod]

"Late June" was for 12.5, which would have provided FSD/AP for the CT. That was assuming 12.4 was in wide release at the beginning of June. 12.4 still is in testing/validation and we are at least 2 weeks away from general release judging off prior releases.

So best case, maybe a month away from 12.5, worst case...could be a long time.

Elon's end of "_" have sometimes been over a year off. They aren't real estimates.

12.4, 12.5, and 12.6 are all independent builds which are being trained and tested independently of eachother. This is a change from what we had during V11 and prior where each build was built upon the last. We don't necessarily need to see 12.4.x released to the public before 12.5 sees the light of day.

 

[CapheDa]

Agreed; We need lane assist right away. You can't build a truck with a steering wheel that your knees won't reach without including lane assist.

 

[SCTesla]

12.4, 12.5, and 12.6 are all independent builds which are being trained and tested independently of eachother. This is a change from what we had during V11 and prior where each build was built upon the last. We don't necessarily need to see 12.4.x released to the public before 12.5 sees the light of day.

That's partially correct. Different versions of V11 were being trained and tested independently as well. The testing/training from those versions still apply to future releases.

Unless they consider 12.4 a complete dud, we'll see the normal progression of release before 12.5 begins. As we see, there's a ton of "polishing" as Elon called it for each of these V12 that they do with the employee release and all the employees are testing 12.4, currently.

I'd be shocked to see 12.5 before August, tbh.

Edit: It took over a year to get park assist for HW4 and more than that to provide FWD functionality to the MX without USS. Tesla is always slow to give new vehicles features. It sucks, because AP has always been standard, but the CT is so different that it's likely they want to wait for the V12 stack on highway for AP as well.

Elon saying end of June always meant July-August best case scenario.

 

[Woodrick]

12.4, 12.5, and 12.6 are all independent builds which are being trained and tested independently of eachother. This is a change from what we had during V11 and prior where each build was built upon the last. We don't necessarily need to see 12.4.x released to the public before 12.5 sees the light of day.

I don't believe that they are independent. They are dependent on each other. Each one adds features. And each one has to be trained.

 

[DFWBrad]

Lane changing is one of the things that I pretty much totally trust FSD to do. And it has been that way for years.
YouTubers look for "issues." They create situations in which a response is "sensationalized."

Not sure where you're driving, but around me it has struggled to select the correct lane to be in for a loooooong time. Need to turn left? Gets in the right lane. Need to turn right? Gets in the left lane.

This is a known issue that was supposed to be fixed with v12, but from what I've watched. It hasn't...

 

[Woodrick]

Not sure where you're driving, but around me it has struggled to select the correct lane to be in for a loooooong time. Need to turn left? Gets in the right lane. Need to turn right? Gets in the left lane.

This is a known issue that was supposed to be fixed with v12, but from what I've watched. It hasn't...

Oh, so you mean get in the correct lane to exit or turn.

They have pushed back the decision to change lanes a little when exiting Interstates, but it still is a little problematic in heavy traffic.

Turning on surface streets seem to be fine for me.

 

[GuyV]

Agreed; We need lane assist right away. You can't build a truck with a steering wheel that your knees won't reach without including lane assist.

LOL, no, I really need parking assist. The CT cameras are not helping me understand its edges very well. It's probably just me, but when the rear looks close, I am close, but when the front looks close I am 4-6 feet away. The parking lines don't seem to match up very well with what I see in the side mirror either. Maybe in 6 months or so I may just learn the boundaries intuitively, if I don't crash into things before then. I've never had a vehicle I've had to climb back in and try again so often. ?

 

[Woodrick]

LOL, no, I really need parking assist. The CT cameras are not helping me understand its edges very well. It's probably just me, but when the rear looks close, I am close, but when the front looks close I am 4-6 feet away. The parking lines don't seem to match up very well with what I see in the side mirror either. Maybe in 6 months or so I may just learn the boundaries intuitively, if I don't crash into things before then. I've never had a vehicle I've had to climb back in and try again so often. ?

You need to get out and practice. I can easily back in to within 1-3 inches of the wall. I can pull into parking spaces and be right up to the back line. I can pull within an inch or two of the center of the lines. Realize how easy it is to hit the button that turns the camera on and how you can drage the camera view up or down to see the opposing camera.

The lines on the display, I believe, represent where the wheels are going to go. The truck is substantially wider.

And I think that one of the things that I'm working on overcoming is the 4-wheel steering. My brain is working on factoring in the change that the rear wheel turning represents. I wish I could disable it at times.

Get out in a parking lot one evening and just practice, it's well worth the time. It's much less unnerving pulling into a spot without cars on either side.