FSD going subscription only (one-time purchase no longer available after Feb 14)

[pricedm]

FSD purchase and lease rates are reported around 10-12%. Seems like a better tactic to increase adoption rate is free FSD first 1-6 months of vehicle purchase, then option to purchase at significantly less than $7k, $8k, $12k recent cost.

The "I like to drive myself" crowd isn't going to change their mind at this high cost.

Sponsored

 

[resellpanda88]

My guess is that they remove FSD and rebrand it to uFSD and sFSD the. Make it an option to sell it for $4K/$8K or in a dream scenario $2,500/$4,500 to match Rivian's pricing for Autonomy+.

I will take the gamble.

 

[PHS]

So glad when I purchased both of my cyber beasts that I checked the box for $8000 for FSD one truck they paid cash for 129,000 the other truck I used Elon‘s money with 0% financing. I plan on keeping my trucks for 20 years. Add up to subscriptions for the next two years and I believe I’m way ahead of the game some people like the monthly payment I like no payments. !

Sorry... I just registered but I just wanted to ask you for the reason how having opportunity Costs of 8000 USD x 4% = 320 USD per year is not almost like a "subscription"? you are out 8k AND on top you forgoe 320 in interest income...

 

[Mikec3399]

Thoughts on propriety?

Will Tesla honor transfers from one vehicle to another? Or will this change too? To me the purchase is not worth if transfer is no longer valid.

I hold my vechicles long term, this won’t effect me, subscriptions make a lot more money for Tesla

Sorry... I just registered but I just wanted to ask you for the reason how having opportunity Costs of 8000 USD x 4% = 320 USD per year is not almost like a "subscription"? you are out 8k AND on top you forgoe 320 in interest income...

so the Blue Beast I paid cash, no interest, added the $8,000 FSD option I have been enjoying FSD since OCT 2024, and the second Red Beast, I purchased, in June 2025 with Zero% financing, FREE Lifetime FSD, Free Lifetime connection, and Free Lifetime supercharging. prior to the LUX Package offer.
so no interest on any of my FSD Purchases. both are 2024 Foundation Series Cyberbeasts that power my homes with PowerShare. my CT home also has solar, so it charges the truck during the day, and powers my home at night, both of my homes are all electric. FSD purchased outright is a definet monet saver, also on the road it is much safer to drive with FSD. Insurance costs are super low.

 

[AverageJoe]

Little off topic but I bought FSD on my 2022 MYP HW3. Elon has said if they can't make FSD work on HW3 for customers who purchased it in full that tesla will have to upgrade the hardware so it will work(this was specifically denied in the cybertruck purchase contract)

What are the groups thoughts on tesla doing this?

1. Upgrade components to whichever version succeeds

2. FSD buyback (paid $15k)

3. Trade for vehicle with working FSD
a. Prorated
B. 1 for 1

 

[Rhineg]

Some of us hate recurring payments (subscriptions), hence a business opportunity for Rocket Money. Glad I bought FSD when I ordered CT.

 

[Mikec3399]

Little off topic but I bought FSD on my 2022 MYP HW3. Elon has said if they can't make FSD work on HW3 for customers who purchased it in full that tesla will have to upgrade the hardware so it will work(this was specifically denied in the cybertruck purchase contract)

What are the groups thoughts on tesla doing this?

1. Upgrade components to whichever version succeeds

2. FSD buyback (paid $15k)

3. Trade for vehicle with working FSD
a. Prorated
B. 1 for 1

Trade in for a Cyberbeast!

 

[henchman24]

Little off topic but I bought FSD on my 2022 MYP HW3. Elon has said if they can't make FSD work on HW3 for customers who purchased it in full that tesla will have to upgrade the hardware so it will work(this was specifically denied in the cybertruck purchase contract)

What are the groups thoughts on tesla doing this?

1. Upgrade components to whichever version succeeds

2. FSD buyback (paid $15k)

3. Trade for vehicle with working FSD
a. Prorated
B. 1 for 1

The timeframe I think is key. Odds are probably high that they can get FSD working on HW3 eventually. They'll 'solve' it on HW4 then condense it down once it gets good enough. Now the question is more, is that this year or 3 years from now? If it is 3 years from now, Tesla might just be better off upgrading components (IE designing a smaller version of AI5 to plug and play into HW3 cars) and abandoning HW3 in total. If it is 6 months from now, forcing a lite version on HW3 makes more sense. Hard to speculate without knowing inner workings of how close they are and if the model can be scaled back enough. We do know they want to try the scale back option.

 

[SCTesla]

The timeframe I think is key. Odds are probably high that they can get FSD working on HW3 eventually. They'll 'solve' it on HW4 then condense it down once it gets good enough. Now the question is more, is that this year or 3 years from now? If it is 3 years from now, Tesla might just be better off upgrading components (IE designing a smaller version of AI5 to plug and play into HW3 cars) and abandoning HW3 in total. If it is 6 months from now, forcing a lite version on HW3 makes more sense. Hard to speculate without knowing inner workings of how close they are and if the model can be scaled back enough. We do know they want to try the scale back option.

I think the issue with this right now is Tesla is putting a ton of resources into scaling back/compiling the model to fit on HW4, which is already at capacity. They've hired a bunch of people to condense models and Ashok spoke that was for HW4, not HW3 (though I'm sure they would be used for that as well).

It's a big reason why we haven't seen the 10x parameter increase which was supposed to come in 14.3 and be out in 2025, but now Ashok is suggesting 14.3 or the reasoning won't come until Q2.

Edit: I would also say odds are extremely low for FSD to work on HW3. Not only going off Elon/Ashok, but the only thing on the roadmap for HW3 is a V14-lite. Not sure if you used V12 (V13-lite on HW3) and V13 on HW4 side by side, but it's a pretty dramatic difference.

 

[CyberGus]

Edit: I would also say odds are extremely low for FSD to work on HW3. Not only going off Elon/Ashok, but the only thing on the roadmap for HW3 is a V14-lite. Not sure if you used V12 (V13-lite on HW3) and V13 on HW4 side by side, but it's a pretty dramatic difference.

FSD already "works" on HW3. The question is, what do they need to compromise to make it work...? And does lesser NN compute mean that it's less safe??

 

[SCTesla]

FSD already "works" on HW3. The question is, what do they need to compromise to make it work...? And does lesser NN compute mean that it's less safe??

"Works"

Sure as a supervised ADAS, but it's not anywhere near Unsupervised. It's basically a better version of FSD V12 (why it kept the V12 name, even though 12.6.4 is considered V13-lite). HW3 is over a year behind HW4.

 

[HaulingAss]

When you consider the average person shops for a “new to them“ vehicle every 3-4 years spending $8k on FSD simply doesn’t pencil out. That is why the take rate is very low.

Also, Tesla’s equipped with FSD see virtually zero added resale value when sold or traded in.

Because FSD transfers to all subsequent owners of that vehicle, clean used Tesla with FSD will be in high demand once you cannot buy a Full Self Driving in a new Tesla.

This announcement will temporarily boost new car sales and boost FSD take rates to very high levels. Only uninformed buyers will not stretch to add FSD, both for their own use, but also for resale value.

Sure, Elon could change his mind, but it's still a big risk. Think about it, once FSD is completely unsupervised, which I think is a year or so out, Tesla will want to move towards getting as many autonomous vehicles on the road as possible. Road safety will soar, traffic deaths will decline, traffic will move more smoothly and intelligently, leading to less stop and go traffic jams, Tesla sales will soar (because it will take longer for Tesla to license it in competitors vehicles), the benefits will be huge.

 

[HaulingAss]

FSD already "works" on HW3. The question is, what do they need to compromise to make it work...? And does lesser NN compute mean that it's less safe??

It means it will not be safe enough for unsupervised FSD driving. That's why Elon committed to upgrading all older hardware cars whose buyers were promised that FSD would drive itself, to newer hardware capable of actually driving itself (at company expense).

 

[PungoteagueDave]

All fair points.

I think people have different interpretations of what UFSD will look like in the future. For some, it means you are still in the front seat but can use your phone and not have to pay attention to what's ahead of you. Others see UFSD as getting into the backseat to take a nap on the way, or have the truck drop you off at work, go make some money for you on the Robotaxi network, and then you summon it back to you when its time to go home.

I think UFSD will rollout with additional features over time, much like how FSD has done so (hopefully at a much faster rate). Just as the HW is always improving and is "Never Finished", I think the SW will follow as it will never be complete; there is always something to fix/add in the future. At some point, it will become UFSD.

Elon specifically described FSD as allowing you to put you kid in the car and send it to school with no adult driver. He also said we could put our vehicles in teh robotaxi fleet to make money, unattended. He said this multiple times. At that point the legal issues are huge. Who is legally responsible? The owner? Tesla, which is technically responsible for all driving decisions in unsupervised mode? This is going to take a long time to play out, assuming FSD actually gets to the "U" mode.. I get that we have robotaxis of several kinds, but in that case, the sponsor insures the ride, not the occupant. We don't have a business model for this yet - where our private vehicles become part of a robotaxi fleet.

 

[CyberGus]

It means it will not be safe enough for unsupervised FSD driving. That's why Elon committed to upgrading all older hardware cars whose buyers were promised that FSD would drive itself, to newer hardware capable of actually driving itself (at company expense).

Right, and Tesla will aggressively attempt to wiggle out of this promise, since it could cost billions. The HW4 form-factor is incompatible with HW3 vehicles.

Sponsored