FSD going subscription only (one-time purchase no longer available after Feb 14)

[PungoteagueDave]

Because FSD transfers to all subsequent owners of that vehicle, clean used Tesla with FSD will be in high demand once you cannot buy a Full Self Driving in a new Tesla.

This announcement will temporarily boost new car sales and boost FSD take rates to very high levels. Only uninformed buyers will not stretch to add FSD, both for their own use, but also for resale value.

Sure, Elon could change his mind, but it's still a big risk. Think about it, once FSD is completely unsupervised, which I think is a year or so out, Tesla will want to move towards getting as many autonomous vehicles on the road as possible. Road safety will soar, traffic deaths will decline, traffic will move more smoothly and intelligently, leading to less stop and go traffic jams, Tesla sales will soar (because it will take longer for Tesla to license it in competitors vehicles), the benefits will be huge.

False. FSD normally does NOT transfer to subsequent owners. There are exceptions, but most FSD holders do not have transfer privileges to either a new owner or a new Tesla. I owned two that will have it forever, but only if they don't get traded in through Tesa. When Tesla takes a trade with FSD, they strip it from the car. Every time.

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[Pops]

False. FSD normally does NOT transfer to subsequent owners. There are exceptions, but most FSD holders do not have transfer privileges to either a new owner or a new Tesla. I owned two that will have it forever, but only if they don't get traded in through Tesa. When Tesla takes a trade with FSD, they strip it from the car. Every time.

Yeah but that is only Tesla that removes FSD. Gives them a chance to double-dip and sell FSD on the same car twice. Private sales, or non-Tesla dealerships will still have FSD attached to the vehicle.

 

[SCTesla]

Yeah but that is only Tesla that removes FSD. Gives them a chance to double-dip and sell FSD on the same car twice. Private sales, or non-Tesla dealerships will still have FSD attached to the vehicle.

Correct.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

FSD already "works" on HW3. The question is, what do they need to compromise to make it work...? And does lesser NN compute mean that it's less safe??

the version of FSD that Elon touted and sold (put your kid in the car and robotaxi business model) does not work. It doesn't exist for any car. Spare us the contract language and "Elon never lies" mumbo jumbo. We know what he said. In pubic. Repeatedly. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. I love my Teslas and the current FSD iteration, but this ain't FSD as envisioned and sold as autonomous, and that every Tesla vehicle sold in 2018 and later had the hardware capability.

 

[henchman24]

I think the issue with this right now is Tesla is putting a ton of resources into scaling back/compiling the model to fit on HW4, which is already at capacity. They've hired a bunch of people to condense models and Ashok spoke that was for HW4, not HW3 (though I'm sure they would be used for that as well).

It's a big reason why we haven't seen the 10x parameter increase which was supposed to come in 14.3 and be out in 2025, but now Ashok is suggesting 14.3 or the reasoning won't come until Q2.

Edit: I would also say odds are extremely low for FSD to work on HW3. Not only going off Elon/Ashok, but the only thing on the roadmap for HW3 is a V14-lite. Not sure if you used V12 (V13-lite on HW3) and V13 on HW4 side by side, but it's a pretty dramatic difference.

Yeah, but the software today doesn't equate to the future. We've seen it frequently that as the software gets more refined, it can be run on hardware that has less raw power. That doesn't mean it will happen (and I have doubts about HW3 ever running an equivalent FSD to today's on AI4), but what is happening today is not necessarily indicative of what happens 1-2-3 years from now.

I agree on AI4 being far superior to HW3 back to back. It is to the point where my wife wants to get a Tesla (that she should have just bought to begin with when she bought her Toyota), but I keep harping that it needs to be an AI4 vehicle at minimum. We at least see a path with AI4 that is unlikely with HW3.

 

[cyberhunter]

congrats, FSD CyberTrucks are unicorns now.

only subscription after:

• $99/month
• $999/year

I guess I own a unicorn. If there is no transfer of purchase option, then when refresh cybertruck with 50% more kwhr battery comes out, finding a way to just upgrade the battery might be worth the while.

 

[jimbobb23]

All fair points.

I think people have different interpretations of what UFSD will look like in the future. For some, it means you are still in the front seat but can use your phone and not have to pay attention to what's ahead of you. Others see UFSD as getting into the backseat to take a nap on the way, or have the truck drop you off at work, go make some money for you on the Robotaxi network, and then you summon it back to you when its time to go home.

I think UFSD will rollout with additional features over time, much like how FSD has done so (hopefully at a much faster rate). Just as the HW is always improving and is "Never Finished", I think the SW will follow as it will never be complete; there is always something to fix/add in the future. At some point, it will become UFSD.

If I can't sleep it's not where I want it. Hope HW4 can get there. I want to ride/sleep all night to get places. Cannot wait for it!

However that's likely to be slower even when tech gets there. Laws and such.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

I paid $10k for FSD in my Model 3 that is soon to be five years old. The resale value is so low on the M3 now, that I would rather keep it and have them upgrade it out of spite, than to get rid of it now.

Elon stated the cars would make us money and FSD was going to go up in value. Instead, it is clearly worth $100 a month. I would need to own the car over 8 years to break even using dumb math. But when considering inflation and gains I missed out on, that math doesn't work. Also I had my money tied up in a FSD purchase that didn't have any real value for 2+ years, since the product didn't launch yet. I realistically will need to have the vehicle 10-12 years to make my FSD purchase worth it, and that assumes the FSD delivers what was promised the next 5-7 years.

I would probably trade it in this year if Tesla gave me free luxe package on a new vehicle, or maybe I would lowball myself for a $8k trade in bonus. If not, I will keep the M3 and get my promised upgrades. Or if no upgrades come, I will likely get my money back in an inevitable class action lawsuit. I'm playing the long game now.

 

[AverageJoe]

I paid $10k for FSD in my Model 3 that is soon to be five years old. The resale value is so low on the M3 now, that I would rather keep it and have them upgrade it out of spite, than to get rid of it now.

Elon stated the cars would make us money and FSD was going to go up in value. Instead, it is clearly worth $100 a month. I would need to own the car over 8 years to break even using dumb math. But when considering inflation and gains I missed out on, that math doesn't work. Also I had my money tied up in a FSD purchase that didn't have any real value for 2+ years, since the product didn't launch yet. I realistically will need to have the vehicle 10-12 years to make my FSD purchase worth it, and that assumes the FSD delivers what was promised the next 5-7 years.



I would probably trade it in this year if Tesla gave me free luxe package on a new vehicle, or maybe I would lowball myself for a $8k trade in bonus. If not, I will keep the M3 and get my promised upgrades. Or if no upgrades come, I will likely get my money back in an inevitable class action lawsuit. I'm playing the long game now.

There has been successful buybacks of fsd through arbitration by citing the other successful cases

 

[bg002h]

And once Unspervised is launched, that monthly wont stay at $99. Better pony up the $8k for those who are keeping their trucks for the long term and didn't buy FSD yet.

Make them pay now, provide beta testing, and then give the customer a chance to save money when the software is ready someday…sounds like a good business model…for Tesla.

 

[llllIIlIIlIlIllII]

I hate this

 

[PungoteagueDave]

Yeah but that is only Tesla that removes FSD. Gives them a chance to double-dip and sell FSD on the same car twice. Private sales, or non-Tesla dealerships will still have FSD attached to the vehicle.

Not always. Tesla has removed FSD from dealer and individual transfers. I don't think they always have the legal right, and some have been restored after a fight, but it can take a fight. And many FSD licenses have been sold for the life of current ownership only. Dealer resales are really dicey with respect to this issue, with some successes and some failures.

 

[CTOWannabe]

This makes me want to never buy another Tesla

Subscriptions are evil

Pass

 

[CallsignVega]

Because FSD transfers to all subsequent owners of that vehicle, clean used Tesla with FSD will be in high demand once you cannot buy a Full Self Driving in a new Tesla.

This announcement will temporarily boost new car sales and boost FSD take rates to very high levels. Only uninformed buyers will not stretch to add FSD, both for their own use, but also for resale value.

Sure, Elon could change his mind, but it's still a big risk. Think about it, once FSD is completely unsupervised, which I think is a year or so out, Tesla will want to move towards getting as many autonomous vehicles on the road as possible. Road safety will soar, traffic deaths will decline, traffic will move more smoothly and intelligently, leading to less stop and go traffic jams, Tesla sales will soar (because it will take longer for Tesla to license it in competitors vehicles), the benefits will be huge.

This seems like kind of a crazy take. FSD purchase has always been a low take rate, hence why they are getting rid of it. And right now, FSD barely moves the needle on resale values. Just like aftermarket parts don't either.

The average person owns a new car for about 5 years. With finance interest or interest lost investing that $8K, it would take over 7 years just to break even. That's assuming you even paid the $99 monthly fee every single month, which a lot of people probably won't and save it only for road trips.

 

[Gaximus]

well that sucks. #2 reason that i bought it was that I thought that subscriptions tht unlocked hardware that I owned was stupid.

This doesn’t unlock hardware, it’s a subscription that unlocks software. It’s not the same as BMW charging a subscription for heated seats. But yes this sucks.

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