FSD going subscription only (one-time purchase no longer available after Feb 14)

[vandytom]

One thing is for sure, if Tesla ever allows our CyberTrucks to join the Robotaxi network, we’ll be VIP rides earning most money

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[Mikec3399]

So glad when I purchased both of my cyber beasts that I checked the box for $8000 for FSD one truck they paid cash for 129,000 the other truck I used Elon‘s money with 0% financing. I plan on keeping my trucks for 20 years. Add up to subscriptions for the next two years and I believe I’m way ahead of the game some people like the monthly payment I like no payments. !

 

[SlegMD]

Thoughts on propriety?

Will Tesla honor transfers from one vehicle to another? Or will this change too? To me the purchase is not worth if transfer is no longer valid.

 

[SCTesla]

Thoughts on propriety?

Will Tesla honor transfers from one vehicle to another? Or will this change too? To me the purchase is not worth if transfer is no longer valid.

They are not going to honor transfers if you believe Elon, but he's been wrong on that about 6 times. He did say this Q was the "last one", but he said that many times before.

They keep punting on that because they are trying to get rid of the HW3 FSD purchases before they have to upgrade them.

 

[Litterboxer1]

I wonder when we'll know what's happening with the "luxe" package.

 

[SCTesla]

I wonder when we'll know what's happening with the "luxe" package.

Probably when it's gone.

They want to drive sales. I would bet that date is pushed back. Tesla almost always announces "X is going to end on this date" and then either re-opens it at the end of a quarter or pushes it.

Elon has said twice they are never bringing back options for unlimited Super Charging and then they did. He said FSD transfers were only a 1 time thing and they even sent multiple e-mails to Tesla customers (1 month left, 10 days left, etc.), but they extended it.

If they think they need the Luxe package to move S/X/CT they could keep it or they could run a campaign saying it's leaving forever to bring it back as a promotion to hit sales numbers.

All companies do this.

 

[Litterboxer1]

Probably when it's gone.

They want to drive sales. I would bet that date is pushed back. Tesla almost always announces "X is going to end on this date" and then either re-opens it at the end of a quarter or pushes it.

Elon has said twice they are never bringing back options for unlimited Super Charging and then they did. He said FSD transfers were only a 1 time thing and they even sent multiple e-mails to Tesla customers (1 month left, 10 days left, etc.), but they extended it.

If they think they need the Luxe package to move S/X/CT they could keep it or they could run a campaign saying it's leaving forever to bring it back as a promotion to hit sales numbers.

All companies do this.

I'm ok if they get rid of the luxe package, I'm just worried they will get rid of the FSD and keep the luxe package the same, essentially raising the cost by $8,000 : /.

 

[Mini2nut]

When you consider the average person shops for a “new to them“ vehicle every 3-4 years spending $8k on FSD simply doesn’t pencil out. That is why the take rate is very low.

Also, Tesla’s equipped with FSD see virtually zero added resale value when sold or traded in.

 

[Pops]

Part of Elon's pay package goals include achieving 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions sustained over a three-month period. This change will help him reach that goal.

I would like to see the math on how a cancellable subscription is more profitable than prepaying 8 years of that subscription at once. How many people cancel FSD after starting it would be a major consideration. The possible interest gains on a 8 year pre payment could be significant as well.

 

[Pops]

When you consider the average person shops for a “new to them“ vehicle every 3-4 years spending $8k on FSD simply doesn’t pencil out. That is why the take rate is very low.

I agree with you, but a subscription is already an option and people are not taking it. Why would removing an option for purchase increase the take rate? I dont get it.

 

[SCTesla]

Part of Elon's pay package goals include achieving 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions sustained over a three-month period. This change will help him reach that goal.

I would like to see the math on how a cancellable subscription is more profitable than prepaying 8 years of that subscription at once. How many people cancel FSD after starting it would be a major consideration. The possible interest gains on a 8 year pre payment could be significant as well.

Also, as I just read on X, this Feb 14 date coincides with the court ruling in California that Tesla can no longer sell FSD under the name FSD.

Edit: Feb 14 is exactly 60 days to the day from the December 16 ruling that Tesla has 60 days to stop sale of FSD in California or "fix misleading claims".

 

[TripleB]

When you consider the average person shops for a “new to them“ vehicle every 3-4 years spending $8k on FSD simply doesn’t pencil out. That is why the take rate is very low.

Also, Tesla’s equipped with FSD see virtually zero added resale value when sold or traded in.

And for those who paid upfront what happens if your truck is totaled in an accident? Seems like sub is the way to go anyway.

 

[SCTesla]

And for those who paid upfront what happens if your truck is totaled in an accident? Seems like sub is the way to go anyway.

Insurance covered a portion of mine. It was included in the price of the vehicle.

 

[CyberGus]

well that sucks. #2 reason that i bought it was that I thought that subscriptions tht unlocked hardware that I owned was stupid.

Paying a subscription fee to unlock hardware is dumb. It's basically a purchase payment plan with no end date, and is bullshit IMHO. Such "feature unlock" actions should be a one-time purchase. Tesla has done this before with selling excess pack capacity, or performance upgrades.

But that's not what the FSD subscription is. You're not "unlocking the hardware", you're paying a software licensing fee that goes toward future development. There are already software vendors that do this, such as Adobe with their photo/video editing suite.

Even when you "buy" software for your PC, it's really just a fixed-price license. When updated features are delivered, you must buy the new version all over again.

I'm happy with my FSD purchase, but the subscription plan is a great idea going forward. If FSD is purchase-only, then the only incentive for development is new sales. With a subscription model, they are incentivized to keep existing customers happy via regular updates.

 

[henchman24]

Part of Elon's pay package goals include achieving 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions sustained over a three-month period. This change will help him reach that goal.

I would like to see the math on how a cancellable subscription is more profitable than prepaying 8 years of that subscription at once. How many people cancel FSD after starting it would be a major consideration. The possible interest gains on a 8 year pre payment could be significant as well.

One way is that that Tesla can't recognize all of the FSD purchase immediately, where as a subscription is recognized all at once. Right now Tesla is carrying >2.2b of deferred revenue that is mostly FSD (and some energy storage) that has to get released over time and as features come online.

Another is this will eliminate transfers (they probably run a 'credits' program in the interim, but long-term it will be eliminated). We've seen that as a large incentive to boost upgrades. So a sale on a CT may not actually include FSD even though FSD is active. Mine was that way, I transferred FSD from my M3 (that I caught on one of the promotions to upgrade EAP). In other words, right now, Tesla isn't getting the full 8k from a lot people currently... a good amount of time they get zero.

Combine both of those, and you have a situation where they are not getting the full amount and the accounting treatment stipulates they can't recognize all of it even if it is purchased in full.

Additionally, there is the pie in the sky idea that when autonomy is solved, there will be a rush to grab FSD and even more if people can put their vehicles on the network. In that case they move to the recurring revenue model that almost all software companies are going towards... and it has a very long and profitable tail.

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