Elon Musk is back and all-in on Tesla again

[YDR37]

saying “continued to fall Q1 2025” is not true coming off their best quarter of all time

Recent Tesla 1Q global deliveries (as reported by Tesla) :
1Q 2023: 422,875
1Q 2024: 386,810
1Q 2025: 336,681

Recent Tesla 2Q global deliveries (as reported by Tesla):
2Q 2023: 466,140
2Q 2024: 443,956
2Q 2025: ? (to be reported on July 2)

I'm just saying that (contrary to Elon) the 2Q 2025 numbers will not show a "major rebound". They will be lower than 2Q 2024, which in turn was lower than 2Q 2023. Same pattern as 1Q.

How much lower? Well, you can place a bet on Tesla's 2Q 2025 delivery number at Kalshi. The current over/under is between 350,000 and 375,000. So the betting market doesn't see a "major rebound" either.

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[CyberTW]

Recent Tesla 1Q global deliveries (as reported by Tesla) :
1Q 2023: 422,875
1Q 2024: 386,810
1Q 2025: 336,681

Recent Tesla 2Q global deliveries (as reported by Tesla):
2Q 2023: 466,140
2Q 2024: 443,956
2Q 2025: ? (to be reported on July 2)

I'm just saying that (contrary to Elon) the 2Q 2025 numbers will not show a "major rebound". They will be lower than 2Q 2024, which in turn was lower than 2Q 2023. Same pattern as 1Q.

How much lower? Well, you can place a bet on Tesla's 2Q 2025 delivery number at Kalshi. The current over/under is between 350,000 and 375,000. So the betting market doesn't see a "major rebound" either.

I see what you are saying, but a rebound from what? The numbers will be much higher than Q1. Even the Corolla had a 13% drop in Q1. F-Series, -25% drop. Tesla had a huge drop and had huge headwinds.. coming off their greatest quarter EVER. No brand went through more brand damage perceived or not in a quarter possibly ever will the vandalism and is still in line to be a top 3-5 car in the world.. as an EV. The global car market is soft.. so to think Tesla is going to have an incredible top flight Q2 when almost no companies in the top 10 cars are going to be big.. it’s kind of like.. so what.. short term thinking. They are going to hit a point where their sales will level off of the insane pitch they made the last 5 years.. anyone can see that.. will be interesting to see the numbers AT the end of 2025. Give me 3 more quarters before I start saying Tesla has no demand

 

[CyberGus]

there is a lot more to the discussion than “everyone hates elons politics so Tesla numbers are going to continue to crash”

Elon hasn't done Tesla's reputation any favors.

However, most people ultimately make value-oriented purchases. An entrepreneur decided to list the same product twice, but either made in the USA or China (cheaper). Customers overwhelming chose the cheaper option.




So if Tesla can out-produce the competition, the sales will come.

 

[REM]

Some people would say that the vehicle numbers no longer matter, because Tesla is now an AI/robotics company, not a vehicle manufacturer. Maybe so. Just saying that I don't see a "major rebound" in demand for Tesla vehicles, and I don't expect the July 2 numbers to show it either.

Tesla said many years ago that they will transition away from selling cars to the general population once autonomy is ready.

I guess most people aren't considering that they were serious on it being an attainable goal, and them actually executing on it.

 

[HaulingAss]

There are a significant number of folks who would disagree with this assessment.

Does that surprise you?

There are significant numbers of people who genuinely believe in chemtrails. Not contrails, chemtrails. That the government is covertly adding chemicals to jets so they filter down and poison and or control our brains.

There are still a significant number of people who believe the Apollo moon landings were faked.

I don't focus on the freaks in society, those who believe Elon is evil, who believe Tesla sales will not return to growth with the economy, those who think Elon and DOGE are stealing their money and their personal information. I focus on the people like Elon and his talented teams that are pushing humanity forward, that are bringing us ever better products at better prices.

These are the people making history, not the peanut gallery sitting on the sideline claiming the sky is falling, better run for cover.

 

[HaulingAss]

Some people would say that the vehicle numbers no longer matter, because Tesla is now an AI/robotics company, not a vehicle manufacturer. Maybe so. Just saying that I don't see a "major rebound" in demand for Tesla vehicles, and I don't expect the July 2 numbers to show it either.

Vehicle sales numbers will rebound throughout the year and beyond, this quarters number, plus or minus 100,000 vehicles, is not even significant in the big picture. Even Wall Street is starting to get it, which is why TSLA stock is up a whopping 79% over the last 12 months. People who tried to profit on Tesla's sales slump have lost billions of dollars, because they fail to see what matters.

I just have to shake my head when I see people that are too short-sighted to bring the end of their nose into focus! Car sales have always been cyclical. This has been well established over more than a century.

You can join the list of Tesla/Elon Musk naysayers. The list is long, and they have been constantly wrong for many years. That's why people who understand the adage, "Never bet against Elon Musk" make so much more money than those who don't. Look at Bill Gates, LOL! He's gone from the richest man in the world to the laughing stock of the world. His close association with Epstein didn't help.

 

[YDR37]

I just have to shake my head when I see people that are too short-sighted to bring the end of their nose into focus! Car sales have always been cyclical. This has been well established over more than a century.

Of course car sales are cyclical. That's not in question. The question is: where does Tesla currently stand with respect to the cycle?

Is there currently a "major rebound in demand" for Teslas, as Elon maintains?

Or are sales still soft, after falling in 2024?

You can join the list of Tesla/Elon Musk naysayers. The list is long, and they have been constantly wrong for many years.

OK, put me on the list, with regards to this issue. I think, contrary to Elon, that demand for Teslas is still soft. I expect the 2Q 2025 delivery numbers to be below 2Q 2023 (466,140) and below 2Q 2024 (443,956). Probably in the 350,000 to 400,000 range. Let's say 375,000.

If you think it's heretical to question an Elon forecast, that's fine. What is your estimate for 2Q 2025 deliveries? Tesla will release the number on July 2, and then we can see who got it right or wrong.

Vehicle sales numbers will rebound throughout the year and beyond, this quarters number, plus or minus 100,000 vehicles, is not even significant in the big picture.

Then why are you arguing about it?

 

[YDR37]

Tesla said many years ago that they will transition away from selling cars to the general population once autonomy is ready.

I guess most people aren't considering that they were serious on it being an attainable goal, and them actually executing on it.

Nobody doubts that "transitioning away from selling cars" is an attainable goal. In fact, selling fewer cars is easy. And Tesla is clearly executing on that part of the plan, given that their car sales declined from 2023 to 2024, and could realistically decline again from 2024 to 2025.

The question is whether Tesla is successfully executing on autonomy -- which is the second part of the plan. At this point I'm not convinced, but let's wait for June and see how it goes with the Austin robotaxi operations.

 

[ModelXer]

Walter Isaacson:

"Elon Musk is going all-in on Tesla, and Optimus and xAI. He's back to his basic companies as apposed to his 6-month detour with DOGE. The big news is that he's back to being focused on his basics."

Here's today's Musk interview that he's referring to:
https://www.cybercabrobotaxiforum.c...i-fsd-interview-with-elon-musk-5-20-25.21791/

Too bad. Tesla could do without him and his baggage. And maybe focus back on vehicles instead of departing to other crap until they get the main business on course.

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