Considering TSLA is up 145% in the last 6 months... [WARNING: NO POLITICS, ONLY POLICY]

[HaulingAss]

I invested when Elon was focused on Tesla and SpaceX, and when he had a clear understanding of the importance of switching transportation to electric and the threat of climate change. He's lost focus, no longer talks about the importance of EV's, cozies up to people who are anti EV, and downplays climate change. His values have changed, not mine, and we are no longer aligned and I no longer trust his judgement. I've explained why I think the recent rise in share price is transitory and why I think it's prudent to sell some. I still probably have more shares than most of you.

I very clearly explained my thoughts about the CT, maybe you should go back and read them.

I post here because I had a reservation for a CT but have recently decided I probably won't be getting one. Again, I still have shares in the company and still have an interest in how the company does.

I never said ignorance is bliss, that's something you made up.

It looks like @Quicksilver and his "country ass" has the more optimal investment strategy.

I retired through my investments decades ago, my primary income is, by far, capital gains. I only have incidental dividend income because my largest position(s) don't pay dividends.

One thing I learned many decades ago is to invest from first principles thinking (even though I didn't know what it was called back then). It's more important to know what you don't know. One of the biggest investing mistakes is thinking you know more than you do. Judging by your comments, you need to work on that.

Elon's values haven't changed, it's simply that the world is a complex place and the answer is not always simple. Elon knew it would take decades to transition from fossil fuels to renewables, although he may have under-estimated what roadblocks vested interests would throw in his way. That requires changing strategies to accelerate the transition.

It looks like a new administration will actually get us there sooner than the old one (which was funded by fossil interests). Elon is not dumb and has *much* better vision of how the future will play out that your typical human. It has to do with the way he parses information in a more optimal manner. Don't think you know better than he. He's not always right, but I'm going to go with the person that has the better track record every single time. He's proven his leadership abilities while you have fallen into the trap of believing all the negative narratives made up by his enemies, people who don't want a fast transition to renewables. As an investor I know how much that can prevent one from outsized gains. Never invest with emotions or hunches, always use very base level thinking that is unpolluted from misleading narratives, unsupported beliefs, and faulty assumptions.

Tesla is in the process of releasing EVs so cheap, so capable, and so useful as to leave ICE vehicles in the past. And other manufacturers who want to produce vehicles of any kind should follow suit. This is the way forward, not wasteful $7,500 tax credits to bribe people to buy over-priced EVs while increasing taxation and inflation so much that it strangles the citizens of this great nation. That policy has outlived its usefulness and Elon knows it. That policy creates EV resentments, and Elon knows that. EVs have to stand on their own merits to succeed, and those who make ICE vehicles have to stop or go out of business.

This is the way forward. Elon did not become the wealthiest man in the world by being the greediest man in the world, he did it by having better vision of how the world actually works, by thinking properly about things, by having superior vision of the way forward. Elon's not being wrong-headed here, you are.

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[BannedByTMC]

It looks like @Quicksilver and his "country ass" has the more optimal investment strategy.

Not sure why you're calling him a "country ass" but since he's a decade late to the party compared to myself and hasn't made a fraction of what I've made your "conclusion" is obviously false.

Elon's values haven't changed

Of course they have, anyone saying otherwise simply wasn't familiar with the "old" Elon.

Elon's not being wrong-headed here, you are.

That's an opinion I disagree with.

 

[HaulingAss]

Not sure why you're calling him a "country ass"

 

[TruckDaddy]

Help this make sense from BannedByTMC.

Extremely invested in the climate change movement, but BECAUSE Elon has not been so vocal about climate change as to release a movie entitled "Inconvenient Truth 2, Earth ends in 2 years", he is to be tarred and feathered even though he is perfectly performing the epic dream plan of anyone who could come up with a way to combat climate change.

Next, because Elon supports free speech and Trump, I will buy a Ford Lightning, which sells millions of diesel trucks, coal rolling me, and the complete opposite of every climate change activist's goals ever.

I usually celebrate Earth day by burning a pile of tires, burned as much gas as possible by flooring every gas vehicle for decades.

Elon won me over with performance. Bought 4 Teslas in 4 years because they are amazingly great.

You are going back to what I used to support, and don't even see how dumb it makes you look, as a tree hugger, we would say.

 

[Jack27]

Not sure why you're calling him a "country ass" but since he's a decade late to the party compared to myself and hasn't made a fraction of what I've made your "conclusion" is obviously false.



Of course they have, anyone saying otherwise simply wasn't familiar with the "old" Elon.



That's an opinion I disagree with.

You really sound arrogant bro. Kind of condescending as well,

 

[Pops]

You cant debate the recent results, but how long can the election euphoria last? The recent moves are not based on anything Tesla is doing different. Trump has a lot of ideas that might help, but how many will go through? In his first 4 years there are a lot of things he wanted to do, but didn't (like all presidents).

TSLA PE ratio as of December 16, 2024 is 222.57. That is pure insanity. Logic would dictate that a huge correction is due, but logic doesn't have much to do with Tesla stock price.

For comparison:
Apple PE ratio as of December 16, 2024 is 36.76

 

[Jack27]

You cant debate the recent results, but how long can the election euphoria last? The recent moves are not based on anything Tesla is doing different. Trump has a lot of ideas that might help, but how many will go through? In his first 4 years there are a lot of things he wanted to do, but didn't (like all presidents).

TSLA PE ratio as of December 16, 2024 is 222.57. That is pure insanity. Logic would dictate that a huge correction is due, but logic doesn't have much to do with Tesla stock price.

For comparison:
Apple PE ratio as of December 16, 2024 is 36.76

You just described most stocks. Hype, something new comes out it goes up. Sales dip it goes down. , of course there are highs and lows it’s up to you to decide to take the ride or get off at the next stop. This is the part that is annoying , the stock can be through the roof for months people can make millions then when it dips some clown on the sidelines says “I told you so 4 months ago” ?

 

[Jack27]

Help this make sense from BannedByTMC.

Extremely invested in the climate change movement, but BECAUSE Elon has not been so vocal about climate change as to release a movie entitled "Inconvenient Truth 2, Earth ends in 2 years", he is to be tarred and feathered even though he is perfectly performing the epic dream plan of anyone who could come up with a way to combat climate change.

Next, because Elon supports free speech and Trump, I will buy a Ford Lightning, which sells millions of diesel trucks, coal rolling me, and the complete opposite of every climate change activist's goals ever.

I usually celebrate Earth day by burning a pile of tires, burned as much gas as possible by flooring every gas vehicle for decades.

Elon won me over with performance. Bought 4 Teslas in 4 years because they are amazingly great.

You are going back to what I used to support, and don't even see how dumb it makes you look, as a tree hugger, we would say.

Pretty much said what I said a few post ago. ?

 

[Quicksilver]

Not sure why you're calling him a "country ass"

I used the term in my post.
I'm pretty country but I'm educated.
I retired from the Army as a Master Sergeant and Public Affairs Supervisor for a Army Reserve Training Support Division in Birmingham.
We had eight thousand soldiers in eight Southeaster states.
I once told one of my Staff Officers "I'm just an old country Sergeant from Alabama".
He said "Yea.......and F. Lee Bailey was just an old country lawyer".

 

[BannedByTMC]

I'm not going to bother with the ridiculous straw man posts, I'll just point out that in another thread Haulingass admitted to recently selling some shares, the exact thing I'm being criticized for doing. The irony...

I've explained my reasoning, I don't expect everyone to agree, and frankly the more blind cultists who hold the more my shares increase in value, so feel free to ignore everything I say. I hope I'm wrong and the stock continues to the stratosphere and beyond, but it's not likely.

 

[Jack27]

I'm not going to bother with the ridiculous straw man posts, I'll just point out that in another thread Haulingass admitted to recently selling some shares, the exact thing I'm being criticized for doing. The irony...

I've explained my reasoning, I don't expect everyone to agree, and frankly the more blind cultists who hold the more my shares increase in value, so feel free to ignore everything I say. I hope I'm wrong and the stock continues to the stratosphere and beyond, but it's not likely.

I’m not criticizing you for selling shares. It’s your smug attitude about the CEO you say has dumb ideas yet also claim to have made millions off him and his ideas with little appreciation. I don’t care who we are talking about have a little appreciation for someone who has a company you were able to invest in and walk out with life changing money for you and your family.

I guess if we don’t agree with you we are “fan boy” “blind cultists” go figure

 

[HaulingAss]

I'm not going to bother with the ridiculous straw man posts, I'll just point out that in another thread Haulingass admitted to recently selling some shares, the exact thing I'm being criticized for doing. The irony...

I've explained my reasoning, I don't expect everyone to agree, and frankly the more blind cultists who hold the more my shares increase in value, so feel free to ignore everything I say. I hope I'm wrong and the stock continues to the stratosphere and beyond, but it's not likely.

I never criticized you simply for selling shares, as you pointed out, I did the same recently, and the last thing I am is hypocritical. I live on selling shares of appreciated stocks, and I've spent the last three years building my ownership of TSLA to the largest it's ever been. That's how I roll. I would have to live under a bridge if I never sold stocks. My cash was getting lower than I like (due to buying a lot of TSLA during the downturn) and because my largest positions are more volatile than average, I like to keep enough cash that I'm not forced to sell at inopportune times. This was an opportune time, so I raised some cash.

There are no "straw man" arguments here, but the more you comment, the more out of touch with reality you sound. It's like you lash out just for the sake of lashing out.

 

[HaulingAss]

You cant debate the recent results, but how long can the election euphoria last? The recent moves are not based on anything Tesla is doing different. Trump has a lot of ideas that might help, but how many will go through? In his first 4 years there are a lot of things he wanted to do, but didn't (like all presidents).

TSLA PE ratio as of December 16, 2024 is 222.57. That is pure insanity. Logic would dictate that a huge correction is due, but logic doesn't have much to do with Tesla stock price.

For comparison:
Apple PE ratio as of December 16, 2024 is 36.76

I thought TSLA was ripe for a correction when I started this thread. But it went higher than I thought. It finally corrected today, but not before it hit $488!

P/E is a very unreliable way to value a company or make educated guesses about when its ready to correct. It's almost meaningless. It's a crude measure because no one knows what the future earnings will be (they can change dramatically from year to year). Furthermore, companies with potential to grow as fast as Tesla are rare. This means investors will value it further in the future if they want a piece of it now.

The bottom line, expect volatility and unpredictability. I recommend not trying to time the market. People who do that miss the biggest and best runs. It happens all the time. Invest for the future growth.

 

[Nice2CTu]

The value of a company, public or private, is based on future cash flow. GAAP accounting arrives at earnings, and some/many analysts adjust GAAP profit to arrive at free cash flow. High growth businesses often have neither earnings nor FCF, P-E ratios are then meaningless. HaulingAss said it more succinctly ("...investors will value it further in the future....").

I like TSLA as a stock investment because I believe their product engineering is years ahead of their competitors. I also believe Musk has heart, cares about the human race, wants AI to not be evil, has vision unequalled in what he chooses to focus on, is pragmatic in execution (albeit ruthless to some extent).

My biggest concern as an investor is the risk Musk goes away...death, health, stupid lawfare ruling on compensation, or what-have-you. I'm definitely long term and along for the ride, can live with outcome but fascinated by his first principals physics applied to business outcomes. I don't think he sleeps, and lifestyle may catch up to him along with aging. But I love what he has done, brilliant, love the Cybertruck, wish him and his companies well.

 

[BannedByTMC]

It’s your smug attitude about the CEO you say has dumb ideas yet also claim to have made millions off him and his ideas with little appreciation. I don’t care who we are talking about have a little appreciation for someone who has a company you were able to invest in and walk out with life changing money for you and your family.

Just because someone had good ideas in the past doesn't mean they are infallible. I've always been able to criticize Elon when I thought he was wrong, and yes he has been wrong before, something he used to be able to admit occasionally. Current Elon has lost the plot and has been damaging the brand in recent years. Why else would there be businesses selling bumper stickers for Tesla's disavowing the CEO? I don't see any "I hate Jim Farley" bumper stickers for sale.

https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/tesla-stickers-anti-elon-musk-19944693.php

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