Considering TSLA is up 145% in the last 6 months... [WARNING: NO POLITICS, ONLY POLICY]

[NightOwl]

Optimus, Optimus, Optimus … oh, and did I say Optimus? ?

That’s all I need to say.

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[Deleted member 17810]

Tesla is a very volatile stock because of musk.

 

[Jack27]

Tesla is a very volatile stock because of musk.

I can’t believe they haven’t caught on to you yet.

 

[charliemagpie]

What country are you moving to? I imagine Cybertrucks are not available there yet?

To China. No truck, but I have my Cybertruck cap!

 

[Deleted member 17810]

I can’t believe they haven’t caught on to you yet.

Caught on to what?

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla is a very volatile stock because of musk.

Damn straight! Volatility can't happen without the share price making big moves to the upside.

Fortunately, with TSLA, we get a lot more large net moves to the upside than the downside!

Which is why I doubled my TSLA position on June 4, 2019 and now each of those shares costing under $13 each (split adjusted) is worth over $400! Said another way, every $100,000 invested then (just over 5 years ago) is now worth over $3.3 million!

I've been an active investor for over 30 years, and a very successful one at that, and I never take big positions in stocks that are not highly volatile. I use the power of time to smooth out the short-term volatility. Doubling down when a good company sees volatility to the downside makes that short-term volatility work for you.

Here's a screenshot of TSLA stock price action since the company went public just 14 years ago:

You can see there have been three main valuation levels, the 2010-2013 post IPO level, the 2013-2019 "can't reach profitability" level, and the 2019-2024 "Tesla is not going bankrupt" valuation level.

Had you invested $100,000 just 14 years ago, the same shares would now be worth over $29 million dollars. Ten thousand dollars would be worth almost $3 million dollars. If that's what dealing with short-term volatility gets me, I want more short-term volatility.

Looking at the bigger picture, IMO, TSLA valuation is preparing to exit the "Tesla is not going bankrupt" valuation level and enter the level anticipating autonomy, humanoid robotics and massive grid scale energy storage, all at high profit margins. This could take a few years to play out (in terms of valuation levels) but it could also not look back from here. Investor behavior is very difficult to predict which is why you want to get in before the big moves to a new valuation level happen, even if it ends up meaning you overpaid in the short-term. Because 20/20 vision is reserved for hindsight.

 

[HaulingAss]

To China. No truck, but I have my Cybertruck cap!

Do a lot of Aussies retire in China? And do you think Cybertruck will come to China or Australia first?

 

[SentinelOne]

my buddy and I both bought early, each have a few k shares.....he sold his at $275 just before recent run up...aka to lock in profits. I sat on mine....I'm in it for the long term give pre split and low cost basis it's all gravy.

I'm to chicken to buy in right now, but small spread buys or buy on dip is what I'll prob do for cost averaging and not to miss out if continues the big upswing. I'm no strategic investor that's for sure, lol

 

[Carlos Thomas]

When I placed my deposit for my CyberTruck on November 21, 2019 I also decided to invest in Tesla. I had my eye on Tesla since 2017 and I was looking for some catalyst. I felt the CyberTruck was something that was so different from what we have ever seen as living auto consumers.

So on December 13, 2019, I invested $300,000 in TSLA with the goal of making enough to purchase a Tesla CyberTruck. My goal was to earn 30% on my initial investment, then sell when the truck was released. Well COVID happened.

Fast forward to 2024, and I made more than enough to cover the cost of the CyberTruck February 22, 2024. Since my initial $300,000 seed investment, the total value has grown to $5,514,818 as of December 13, 2024 (exactly 5 years later). My views on Tesla have changed in that timespan.

1. Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, they are a technology company
2. Elon Musk is the Howard Hughes of our time and is always pushing the envelope
3. With the advent of SpaceX and X.Ai, I believe Tesla shareholders are benefiting from those “separate” endeavors
4. Fully Autonomous is the way

I am 50 years old, I started driving at age 16 in 1990. I could not wait to get my drivers license. One generation later (approximately 25 years later) in 2014 my Son turned 16. An odd thing happened…he did not want to get his drivers license. None of his friends had them and with UBER, he was like, “it is cheaper for me to have someone drive me versus me being on the insurance and owning a car”. Fast forward another 25 years from 2014 (2039) and most 16 year olds will not have a drivers license. The technology & data will show that it is safer to have FSD drive that 16 year old around versus them driving.

​

Make no mistake, insurance companies are in the money making, gambling, data business. What happens when they have solid data that shows a fully automated vehicle can drive you 20x safer than a human? Two things will happen. One, the insurance rates will go through the roof if you want to “get behind the wheel”. This is a statistical surety in happening. Second, the drivers test “bar” will be a lot higher in the year 2039, that many people will not have the proficiency to come close to the safety of a fully autonomous system.

​

Tesla is in the drivers seat at the moment when it comes to this technology. Not only will they solve for fully autonomous driving, they will do something most people are not talking about…they will sell their patented technology to other auto manufacturers around the globe. The cost for others to “catch up” will be too great for their business to bare. If you need any sort of indicator on that…look at what happened with the charging standards with all the vehicle manufacturers. They have adopted Tesla. I believe Tesla within 15 years will no longer manufacture vehicles as it is a low margin business and the amount of revenue generated from FSD will more profitable than producing an entire car, truck or van. Going back to my initial belief, Tesla is technology company…not a car company.

​

So this is why I am long on Tesla. Warren Buffett said two things about investing that have shaped how I invest:

1. Never try to predict or time the market. Nobody knows what it is truly going to do…aka, invest in good companies for that long term.
2. Never sell an investment unless you have something better to replace it with

Right now, I cannot see a better investment than Tesla, so my money is staying with this company.

 

[charliemagpie]

I'm to chicken to buy in right now,

I purchased in 2018 @ $300. Back then $300 was just as $300 is today... it then dropped in 2019. Without splits, today's price would have been $6540.

Amazing.

What I am saying is no matter when we buy it's all relative to that moment in time, the chicken effect is always there.

IF TSLA reaches AAPL valuation, the share price will be $1200. Likely another 3 way split by then, and the new price will be around $400 again.

And back to chicken for the next guy... lol.

 

[BannedByTMC]

I've been selling shares and early 2025 covered calls, don't think this price is going to last more than a few months if that, there is nothing fundamental driving the recent run up and this has been a good opportunity to reduce my Elon exposure. My first shares were bought in 2011 at a split adjusted price under $2 so even if I'm selling "too early" I'm OK with that.

 

[GatorCyber]

I've been selling shares and early 2025 covered calls, don't think this price is going to last more than a few months if that, there is nothing fundamental driving the recent run up and this has been a good opportunity to reduce my Elon exposure. My first shares were bought in 2011 at a split adjusted price under $2 so even if I'm selling "too early" I'm OK with that.

you want to reduce exposure now, after all this time? Right before 2 new smaller models in 2025Q2, Semi factory productions start by end 2025, Megapctory Shanghai starting production next quarter, Robotaxi in Cali and Tx in 2025 and Cybercab, and 1k Optimus working in the factories in 2025 before 2026 production start? The fun is just starting.

 

[HaulingAss]

you want to reduce exposure now, after all this time? Right before 2 new smaller models in 2025Q2, Semi factory productions start by end 2025, Megapctory Shanghai starting production next quarter, Robotaxi in Cali and Tx in 2025 and Cybercab, and 1k Optimus working in the factories in 2025 before 2026 production start? The fun is just starting.

I've seen this time and time again.

People don't know how to become wealthy, they want to make $10K here, $5K there, it makes them feel smart. But with companies like Tesla, it's almost always better to just buy when you have some extra money and let it ride as long as possible. That's how you harness the power of compounding as a company grows larger and larger, and how you amass unimaginable wealth.

 

[BannedByTMC]

you want to reduce exposure now, after all this time?

Indeed, I road it down from over $400 to almost $100, watching millions in paper gains disappear, so I'm quite happy to be selling near the top now. Also I don't think we'll see Robotaxi or Optimus doing anything significant in 2025, Elon has been consistently and spectacularly bad at predictions and timing.

 

[HaulingAss]

Indeed, I road it down from over $400 to almost $100, watching millions in paper gains disappear, so I'm quite happy to be selling near the top now. Also I don't think we'll see Robotaxi or Optimus doing anything significant in 2025, Elon has been consistently and spectacularly bad at predictions and timing.

Maybe you are unaware, but stocks like TSLA with so much untapped potential run up well in advance of the revenues. There is no reliable way to time it. Best bet is to buy and hold. This allows you to keep the money you would have paid in capital gains along the way to continue to keep compounding (and it makes a BIG difference in how wealthy you become).

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