Sad about the direction Tesla is taking

[Friday]

the real issue with the Model S & X, they would need a FULL refresh to drive by wire, 48V electrical, mega castings etc, to bring them up to current Tesla technology standards.

When I heard the news of the mothballing, that was my exact first thought and you wrote it down succinctly.

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[swampcrawler]

My wife's new S has the yoke, without drive by wire... What a difference! I love my truck!

Her old one is now my daughter's daily driver, still rocking 12 years later, timeless.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

When I bought my M3P five years ago, I thought I became a Tesla customer for life. When the CT came out, I bought it and my gf took over the M3P payments. The plan has been to upgrade the M3P to a S Plaid in 2027 for some time now. I was waiting for HW5, and had my fingers crossed for steer by wire. The last week we have had more than a few conversations about what vehicle we need to buy now, since Tesla is no longer an option. I was my city's vocal supporter of Tesla, I probably sold 10 Teslas to people I knew because I raved about how much I loved them. Now it is sad, but a reality, my next vehicle will not be a Tesla. I didn't turn my back on Tesla, it turned its back on me.

Maybe I am a robot guy too? Maybe that is when Tesla wins me back eventually? I don't know, I've never owned a robot and have not been able to shop them versus competitors yet. For all the fun Tesla gave me with the M3P and CT, they will certainly be at the top of my list for my eventual robot purchase, but my brand loyalty is going to be slim and I must be wooed.

I am a bit of a nerd, so I will end with a reminder of another California based tech company that was on top of the world. The word Atari was synonymous with video games. They owned the arcade. Then there was the home market, this opened up the door for competitors. The goodwill that Atari built being the first didn't last forever, and eventually a Japanese competitor did what would've seemed unthinkable five years previously. Drawing comparison to another California tech company, I am certain that Tesla would be ecstatic owning 20% of the eventual global robot market, taking the Apple position in the field as the premium global product. It will be interesting how this plays out, and it will be interesting to see if I will ever buy another Tesla product. Until then, I have to decide what non-Tesla EV I need to purchase in 2027.

Well said! This was even better than how I described it...I feel exactly the same.

 

[YDR37]

How about a plethora of different styles and models to fit different folks' fancy. BYD is doing that. Sell low and and high end. Sell trucks. Sell vans. Sell sedans. Sell race cars. .... That is what the "something better" would be.

I get where you're coming from. But here's the problem:

- BYD makes a lot of different models, and now sells more BEVs than Tesla. BYD is valued at about $129 billion.

- Toyota makes "a plethora of styles and models" and sells more vehicles than anyone else in the world. Toyota is valued at about $300 billion.

- Tesla now offers three models (only two in most markets) and sells fewer vehicles than either Toyota or BYD. Tesla is valued at about $1,600 billion.

Tesla isn't valued at $1,600 billion because of its cars. Instead, that valuation reflects the perception that Tesla is going to make huge future profits in AI and robotics.

Tesla doesn't want to compete with BYD or Toyota, because it doesn't want to be valued like BYD or Toyota. The only way that Tesla can justify its $1,600 valuation is through robots and AI. New models of EV trucks, vans, luxury sedans, etc. won't help. Just the opposite -- the more Tesla is perceived as an automaker like BYD or Toyota, the less it is worth.

 

[swampcrawler]

Elon just burned the boats, there's no going back... Only forward!

 

[CyberWalrus]

Elon is the leading innovator in the world. To innovate, one has to move on. All the companies that did not move on is gone or become stagnant. Blockbuster, GoPro, Apple ...

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

I get where you're coming from. But here's the problem:

- BYD makes a lot of different models, and now sells more BEVs than Tesla. BYD is valued at about $129 billion.

- Toyota makes "a plethora of styles and models" and sells more vehicles than anyone else in the world. Toyota is valued at about $300 billion.

- Tesla now offers three models (only two in most markets) and sells fewer vehicles than either Toyota or BYD. Tesla is valued at about $1,600 billion.

Tesla isn't valued at $1,600 billion because of its cars. Instead, that valuation reflects the perception that Tesla is going to make huge future profits in AI and robotics.

Tesla doesn't want to compete with BYD or Toyota, because it doesn't want to be valued like BYD or Toyota. The only way that Tesla can justify its $1,600 valuation is through robots and AI. New models of EV trucks, vans, luxury sedans, etc. won't help. Just the opposite -- the more Tesla is perceived as an automaker like BYD or Toyota, the less it is worth.

100% agree with you on the valuation thing. Profits don’t match the valuation. I have been telling my friends for years, the P/E is way outside the pail on that and investors are gonna want the profit to match that price at some point.

With, that Musk is going the way of perceived growth by expanding the potential perceived tech to the higher bar.

But that will be short lived. At some point he will have competitors in that space and he will be back to the P/E needing to come into alignment with tech averages. All bubbles pop or deflate at some point.

That said, that does me personally no good. I like the EV. I like the tech. But he will be off building items that are secondary to my desires regarding vehicles. Good for Tesla in the short term. Good for investors in the short to medium term. Bad for people who find Tesla to be the EV of choice but want more options. The good news is Rivian is supposed to make their own FSD that should hopefully fill that tech gap. “Autonomy+”… so there is hope.

Maybe an Optimus is in my future, but that bot does little for my transportation desires. BYD gives me that offering… but not here in the US. My loss.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

Elon is the leading innovator in the world. To innovate, one has to move on. All the companies that did not move on is gone or become stagnant. Blockbuster, GoPro, Apple ...

Apple? Seriously? They just had their most spectacular iPhone sales ever.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

I get where you're coming from. But here's the problem:

- BYD makes a lot of different models, and now sells more BEVs than Tesla. BYD is valued at about $129 billion.

- Toyota makes "a plethora of styles and models" and sells more vehicles than anyone else in the world. Toyota is valued at about $300 billion.

- Tesla now offers three models (only two in most markets) and sells fewer vehicles than either Toyota or BYD. Tesla is valued at about $1,600 billion.

Tesla isn't valued at $1,600 billion because of its cars. Instead, that valuation reflects the perception that Tesla is going to make huge future profits in AI and robotics.

Tesla doesn't want to compete with BYD or Toyota, because it doesn't want to be valued like BYD or Toyota. The only way that Tesla can justify its $1,600 valuation is through robots and AI. New models of EV trucks, vans, luxury sedans, etc. won't help. Just the opposite -- the more Tesla is perceived as an automaker like BYD or Toyota, the less it is worth.

Why not do both?

 

[Cayden Thompson]

Apple? Seriously? They just had their most spectacular iPhone sales ever.

I think he's referring to their AI efforts (they totally gave up and legit went to Google). Their phone lineup is stale also. Samsung has had a foldable smartphone for like 7 years and just came out with a trifold. Google has been making a foldable for 3 years. Hey at least their chips are good I guess.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

I think he's referring to their AI efforts (they totally gave up and legit went to Google). Their phone lineup is stale also. Samsung has had a foldable smartphone for like 7 years and just came out with a trifold. Google has been making a foldable for 3 years. Hey at least their chips are good I guess.

You mean they went to OpenAI (ChatGPT). Yes, they chose not to invest their money in AI talent which seems strange to me. I won't argue there as they certainly have the money for it.

As for the phone, they still beat the foldables and Androids in the US. They still claim > 50% of the iPhones in the US. They are doing something right in our country.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

You mean they went to OpenAI (ChatGPT). Yes, they chose not to invest their money in AI talent which seems strange to me. I won't argue there as they certainly have the money for it.

As for the phone, they still beat the foldables and Androids in the US. They still claim > 50% of the iPhones in the US. They are doing something right in our country.

They went to OpenAI first but recently inked a deal with Google to run Gemini for their "Apple Intelligence." I'm referring to innovation, sure they sell phones but it's the same thing every year.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

They went to OpenAI first but recently inked a deal with Google to run Gemini for their "Apple Intelligence." I'm referring to innovation, sure they sell phones but it's the same thing every year.

I haven't seen that. I see OpenAI heavily integrated in the OS:

https://www.apple.com/apple-intelligence/

With ChatGPT from OpenAI integrated into Siri, Writing Tools, visual intelligence, Image Playground, and Shortcuts, you get even more expertise when it might be helpful for you — no need to jump between tools.

You control when ChatGPT is used and will be asked before any of your information is shared. Anyone can access ChatGPT for free, without creating an account. ChatGPT subscribers can connect accounts to access paid features within these experiences.

If Gemini is embedded in the OS, I would certainly like to see it. I actually like Gemeni better than OpenAI.

Please post a link to it and when it will be a part of the OS. That would actually make me quite happy.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

I haven't seen that. I see OpenAI heavily integrated in the OS:

https://www.apple.com/apple-intelligence/



If Gemini is embedded in the OS, I would certainly like to see it. I actually like Gemeni better than OpenAI.

Please post a link to it and when it will be a part of the OS. That would actually make me quite happy.

https://www.macrumors.com/2026/01/25/siri-google-gemini-release-date/

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