Sad about the direction Tesla is taking

[CyberWalrus]

I am very excited actually. Elon's plan was always about innovation and the future. EVs was just the beginning, then data, and AI. I always understood robotics and autonomy was his future.

Drastic change is needed to innovate. Full autonomy is almost here; there is no need to waste resources in developing manual driving cars. I am a car enthusiast at heart, but these days, there aren't many manual transmission analog cars offered. All are automatic and/or simulated, even in ICE cars, with the simulated sounds, gear shifts, auto rev matching, dozens of driving modes, etc. Mind as well let it drive itself.

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[mitch9]

Ask yourself this question:

"How has Elon managed to make so many succesful products & services at so many companies, over such a long period of time". Starting back at the very beginining of his carreer, with the company that made mapping software, then onto Paypal, started SpaceX, invested in Tesla in the early days, etc.

The only logical conclusion any reasonable person can come to is, Elon has direct knowledge of the future. no one can get "lucky" or see things so clearly, from so far away, over such a long period of time.

So with Elon being a time traveller (QED), he already knows that in the future, personal car ownership is dead, everyone is using ride share, personal transport is a thing of the past.

That's me theory, and I'm sticking with it He of course is early to this future, but he always is.

There is also talk of SpaceX and xAI merging with Tesla, makes sense to consolidate his companies to avoid conflicts of interest in the future (which of course he already see's, because, you know

Mitch

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

According to Elon, the S & X aren't going away just because of low sales. Tesla wants factory capacity to start mass production of Optimus 3 robots. It makes sense to locate the initial production at the Fremont factory, because Optimus 3 is being developed at the Tesla Engineering campus in Palo Alto, just 25 miles away. And if factory space in Fremont is needed, then it makes sense to repurpose the S/X manufacturing lines. S/X production peaked in 2017-2018; those lines are now running at only a fraction of capacity.

The Cybertruck is built at the Austin factory, so it is probably safe in the short term, despite the discontinuation of the S/X. Over the long term, however, Elon has stated that:

So if and when Tesla ramps up production of the next-generation Optimus 4 robot, they will probably take a hard look at the Cybertruck production lines in Austin. But that could be years from now.

Maybe... but I take what Elon says with a grain of salt. No Roadster yet. Where are all the semis on the road? We waited years for the CT to be delivered and it didn't live up to all the promises (range, price, etc). He changes his mind like he changes his underwear.

Whether we like it or not, the bread and butter for Tesla are the automobiles. The 3 and Y sell pretty darned good. The others not so much. It makes sense to offload the poorer selling vehicles and concentrate on what sells well... remember, at the end of the day, this is still a business. I am also concerned about the full automation statements because Elon's timeline for delivering things almost never comes to fruition and is off by literally years. So Tesla has only so much runway for it to fund the cool new things he wants with his current vehicle slate. When I see Ford offload the Lightening because it sells poorly, it gets me concerned about Tesla doing the same. I really hope you are right that the CT is going to be around for a while. Thats certainly my desire.

I personally am excited about Optimus. But how many years until it gets to something that isn't so much a gimmick and really has the AI and brains to do super useful things? Does Tesla have the runway to get there? I am excited about Level 3 FSD and beyond. But it's their vehicles I really like. Ford was secretly working on a Super Duty EV and I knew that would have been a killer (for me). But the EV sales and its ability to tow likely showed that it wasn't likely in the cards, especially after the Lightening was killed.

It's possible that he has reached the razor thin margins on vehicles that all automakers feel and the days of massive profit on a vehicle are over. Maybe, he sees this and ultimately wants out of the consumer grade vehicles and go for 100% automation vehicles. Sure... full unsupervised FSD can be nice, but it's also a lot of fun to drive the CT. I love my FSD on long trips, but around town, I actually enjoy driving my CT... it's part of the fun.

Going full circle., it is my sincere hope that this is just Elon's random neuron firing and that he may have some other tricks up his sleeve for vehicle offerings for us. No other car maker comes close to the tech he puts in these cars and it would be a huge loss to all of us if we can't have that choice in the future. But I wouldn't bet the farm on his pontifications because his hit rate on what he says is rather low. Right or wrong, that is my opinion.

 

[CyberWalrus]

Going full circle., it is my sincere hope that this is just Elon's random neuron firing and that he may have some other tricks up his sleeve for vehicle offerings for us. No other car maker comes close to the tech he puts in these cars and it would be a huge loss to all of us if we can't have that choice in the future. But I wouldn't bet the farm on his pontifications because his hit rate on what he says is rather low. Right or wrong, that is my opinion.

Yes, I think new innovative cars will come, however will be more of a transport robot. Fully automated, would be interesting to see Neural Link binding.

I think most people mis understand Tesla. Tesla made a drivable smartphone that includes the ecosystem, tech, and software with it. Other car manufacturers just made an electric automobile and left as is, which why mostly failed. Take a look at the BYD and Xiaomi cars, they are fully integrated with Huawei and Xiaomi phones.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

Yes, I think new innovative cars will come, however will be more of a transport robot. Fully automated, would be interesting to see Neural Link binding.

I think most people mis understand Tesla. Tesla made a drivable smartphone that includes the ecosystem, tech, and software with it. Other car manufacturers just made an electric automobile and left as is, which why mostly failed. Take a look at the BYD and Xiaomi cars, they are fully integrated with Huawei and Xiaomi phones.

The BYD vehicles are AWESOME. They are luxurious and I would likely have had my eyes on them if they were sold here. Plus their prices are pretty much in line with ICE cars which may be why they are doing so well in other countries.

 

[YDR37]

Whether we like it or not, the bread and butter for Tesla are the automobiles. The 3 and Y sell pretty darned good. The others not so much. It makes sense to offload the poorer selling vehicles and concentrate on what sells well... remember, at the end of the day, this is still a business.

From a business perspective, it only makes sense to offload the poorer selling models if you have something better to make with their production capacity. So in the case of the S, X, and Cybertruck, what would that "something better" be?

It's not the Y or 3. The sales of those models, while still high, have been falling. Tesla doesn't need any more capacity there.

Now, in the case of the S/X in Fremont, Tesla does have something better to make -- Optimus 3 robots. So the S/X had to go.

But that doesn't affect the CT in Austin. Now, in the future, Tesla hopes to have something better to make in Austin -- Optimus 4 robots. But that's down the road, so the CT should be safe for now.

 

[YDR37]

When I see Ford offload the Lightening because it sells poorly, it gets me concerned about Tesla doing the same.

Ford's not giving up on the Lightning; they are retooling for the second generation. The Lightning is supposed to be back on the market in a year or two as an EREV, supposedly with 700+ mile range, using an ICE as a generator. Ford thinks that full-size truck buyers would rather buy EREVs than pure BEVs, and they may be right.

The forthcoming Scout EV trucks will be available as either pure BEVs or EREVs. The folks over at Scoutevforum are tracking Scout reservations; over 2700 users have contributed to the tracker so far, and EREV reservations are crushing BEV reservations by more than 5 to 1.

Of course, the EREV option doesn't apply to the Cybertruck. I think we can all agree that the chances of an ICE generator in a Tesla vehicle are zero.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

Ford's not giving up on the Lightning; they are retooling for the second generation. The Lightning is supposed to be back on the market in a year or two as an EREV, supposedly with 700+ mile range, with an ICE as a generator. Ford thinks that full-size truck buyers would rather buy EREVs than pure BEVs, and they may be right.

The new Scout EVs will be available as either pure BEVs or EREVs. The folks at Scoutevforum are tracking Scout reservations; over 2700 people have contributed so far, and the EREV reservations are crushing BEV reservations by more than 5 to 1.

From your mouth to God's ears. BEV's I am not super interested in.... the whole point of an EV to me is getting rid of maintenance like oil changes, etc. The CT is my sweet spot for a full sized truck, and all EV. But if at some point they can revamp these to a pure EV play...I am all in on Ford.

 

[M0unt41nm4n]

From a business perspective, it only makes sense to offload the poorer selling models if you have something better to make with their production capacity. So in the case of the S, X, and Cybertruck, what would that "something better" be?

I'll bite

From an automotive perspective, a more luxurious vehicle to compete with the interior quality of a Mercedes. i.e. you have a Ford XLT F150 that is standard or you can get that sweet Platinum which has all the luxury appointments. I would love to see a luxury Tesla that has real Italian leather, wood grain, etc. I love my CT, but it certainly has a chinsy/plasticy feel to it with some creaks, etc. My F350 Platinum has that sexy Mercedes solid luxe feel to it. I think one of the big complaints in the forums here are that for 100K, the CT could be quite a bit more luxe on the inside.

What else could they do? How about a SUV? How about truck that isn't as polarizing (again I am ok with the looks of a CT), but a lot of people are not. How about a plethora of different styles and models to fit different folks' fancy. BYD is doing that. Sell low and and high end. Sell trucks. Sell vans. Sell sedans. Sell race cars. Right now they have the Model 3, Y and hopefully continue with the CT. They have a lot of room to grow model wise to attract various people's desires. Right now 2 "Mom" cars and a polarizing truck is limiting them from a car company. How about getting that Roadster out because it has the fast car look to it and fits the Ferrari/Lambo markets purely from its looks?

That is what the "something better" would be.

 

[Aces-Truck]

When Optimus 4 comes to be built in Texas, that should guarantee the CT line will continue. Because the still need to deliver those robots to customers. Imagine 5 Optimus needed in Florida. If you have even one customer for a CT, they climb in and it's a one way road trip! Should be great.... unless they can't agree on the music to play!

 

[mcm4ss]

I agree. I guess the articles “Tesla is no longer an automobile company” strikes the sad chord.

He has always said they were not an automobile company but a software company that builds cars.,,,,,,,,

 

[mitch9]

When Optimus 4 comes to be built in Texas, that should guarantee the CT line will continue. Because the still need to deliver those robots to customers. Imagine 5 Optimus needed in Florida. If you have even one customer for a CT, they climb in and it's a one way road trip! Should be great.... unless they can't agree on the music to play!

That is a possability, though they could just be put in a large crate, turned off, and shipped via UPS/FedEx or by Truck (Tesla Semi Optimus delivery). If they were loaded in a CyberTruck, it would likely be horizontally crated in the cargo area, probably could fit in 2 there, and 4 more in the passenger compartment. The Cybertruck they would be in, would not have a steering wheel or pedals, of course.. so not the current model Cybertruck.

 

[swampcrawler]

The S & X aren’t the problem on their own. When that was all Tesla sold, they’d sold like hotcakes. The problem is that the 3 & Y are just too damn good for the money. You compare the s/x to the 3/y, it’s hard to justify the price bump for the difference. As a model S owner since 2014 and a model 3 driver since 2017, when I bought the new S in 2023, it was a hard decision to spend the extra bucks, but I was buying it for her, not me and she wasn’t “stepping down”. Otherwise, we‘d have had a 3 and Y while i waited for my CT!


Elon didn’t kill the S and the X, their baby brothers did.

 

[mitch9]

The S & X aren’t the problem on their own. When that was all Tesla sold, they’d sold like hotcakes. The problem is that the 3 & Y are just too damn good for the money. You compare the s/x to the 3/y, it’s hard to justify the price bump for the difference. As a model S owner since 2014 and a model 3 driver since 2017, when I bought the new S in 2023, it was a hard decision to spend the extra bucks, but I was buying it for her, not me and she wasn’t “stepping down”. Otherwise, we‘d have had a 3 and Y while i waited for my CT!


Elon didn’t kill the S and the X, their baby brothers did.

I had a 2013 Model S, traded it in for a 2025 Dual Motor Cybertruck in August of 2025.

I had an early Model 3 reservation, when they where finally in the showroom, and I could try it, I found it too small (seats are too narrow), I am larger, and just felt squished in it.
I cancelled the reservation, and continued driving the ancient 2013 Model S.

When the Cybertruck was announced, I immediatley put down my $100 reservation, as it looked like it had roomy seats, like the Model S & X. little did I know I had a 5-6 year wait.. I specifically AVOIDED the Founders Edition Cybertrucks, having been a Tesla early adopter on the 2013 Model S, never again.

So I continued to wait, and finally in August of 2025, my ancient Model S developed HV battery issues, that Tesla wanted $850 to diagnose, at this point, the results where going to be pricey, and I wasn't about to put more money in a 12 year old Model S. Plus the Federal EV tax credit was ending shortly, so I had very little choice, bought the Cybertruck because of the %0 financing deal, $1K off FSD with the early reservation, and a $1K loyalty bonus, plus they gave me something for the old Model S in trade, and it wasn't really drivable any longer.. (really just saved me $ on the sales tax).

Anyway, the Model 3 and Model Y did nothing for me, if you can't fit in the car, it's useless.
My Model S was fine, but I wanted a Model X to replace it, but it was too pricey, in fact I priced it compared to the Cybertruck, and it was $15K more, for older technology. nope.

That's the real issue with the Model S & X, they would need a FULL refresh to drive by wire, 48V electrical, mega castings etc, to bring them up to current Tesla technology standards.. They were only in the luxury business early on, because of the price point, they always intended to make more affordable vehicles, and they have.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

When I bought my M3P five years ago, I thought I became a Tesla customer for life. When the CT came out, I bought it and my gf took over the M3P payments. The plan has been to upgrade the M3P to a S Plaid in 2027 for some time now. I was waiting for HW5, and had my fingers crossed for steer by wire. The last week we have had more than a few conversations about what vehicle we need to buy now, since Tesla is no longer an option. I was my city's vocal supporter of Tesla, I probably sold 10 Teslas to people I knew because I raved about how much I loved them. Now it is sad, but a reality, my next vehicle will not be a Tesla. I didn't turn my back on Tesla, it turned its back on me.

Maybe I am a robot guy too? Maybe that is when Tesla wins me back eventually? I don't know, I've never owned a robot and have not been able to shop them versus competitors yet. For all the fun Tesla gave me with the M3P and CT, they will certainly be at the top of my list for my eventual robot purchase, but my brand loyalty is going to be slim and I must be wooed.

I am a bit of a nerd, so I will end with a reminder of another California based tech company that was on top of the world. The word Atari was synonymous with video games. They owned the arcade. Then there was the home market, this opened up the door for competitors. The goodwill that Atari built being the first didn't last forever, and eventually a Japanese competitor did what would've seemed unthinkable five years previously. Drawing comparison to another California tech company, I am certain that Tesla would be ecstatic owning 20% of the eventual global robot market, taking the Apple position in the field as the premium global product. It will be interesting how this plays out, and it will be interesting to see if I will ever buy another Tesla product. Until then, I have to decide what non-Tesla EV I need to purchase in 2027.

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