Well, that would be a "bearish" scenario. Obviously the long term is hard to forecast. My point is that even Elon's "bullish" scenario includes "rough quarters" in the short term (like right now).
Your analysis of Robotaxi numbers completely ignored how much the ride hailing market will grow due to autonomy (autonomous cabs will bring dramatically lower prices and shorter wait times in ever-increasing service areas). The size of the ride hailing market will grow dramatically, miles driven by personal cars will shrink dramatically.
So, using your logic, Tesla has gone from S3XY to Y3LL?
The refreshed Model 3 Performance with adaptive suspension has a much better ride and sound control than previous versions. It's more refined in so many ways, it's worth a second look by those who like high-quality cars that aren't ponderous in size. The cabin environment is very nice.
Selling Cybercabs to private buyers and private fleets will allow Tesla to rapidly grow recurring robotaxi network revenues. The Cybercab is designed to be built quickly in huge volumes and I doubt Tesla would want to finance huge numbers of those when they can just sell them to other operators who will place them on the robotaxi network.
Elon Musk has stated that tif it is eventually sold to consumers it won't be for several years. His new contract specifically gives him credit toward the 10 million FSD sales hurdle for cars that are kept by Tesla for teh fleet. There's a huge legal hurdle to overcome in terms of liability and insurance when there's no more human driver. That can be handled in a taxi fleet, but when title passes to a new owner, insuring the vehicle and ownership rights get blurry. I get that they will be orders of magnitude safer than human drivers, but it is still a business model with no precedent at this point.. The same thing applies to unsupervised FSD, which he very clearly backed off on in terms of our existing cars - still years away, if ever, from the promise of putting it into the robotaxi fleet and having it pay for itself or take your kid to school, etc.
You obviously don't pay attention to the earnings meetings or Elon. They may eventually sell Cybercabs, but it's not occurring soon.
Can I come visit?
Autonomy will not increase the cost of insurance for human drivers, it will lower the cost for autonomously driven vehicles.
I didn't say Tesla will sell Cybercabs to private buyers "soon". But when they are cranking out millions of them, it's highly likely in order to reduce the capital expenses to Tesla while growing recurring revenues and profits.
You must have missed the capex spend. This is about the future. Not some wimpy bottom line now. Tesla isn't trying to compete against legacy auto any longer. Those are thoughts of yesteryear.
That's a word/thought salad, but not a very logical one.
What kind of analysis is that?? S&X haven't been significant to Tesla's bottom line for 5 or 6 years. It has nothing to do with driving up profits (beyond freeing up factory space for more productive initiatives).
I don't get your point.