Agree? Tesla & Cybertruck stand to gain from Lightning EV cancellation & Ford's pivot to hybrids (article)

[YDR37]

The MS competed on every front in that space at the time, including price, and obviously exceeded in terms of 0-60 and TCO. EV trucks, from any company, are not doing that yet.

When you say "EV trucks", you probably mean "EV pickups", and I would agree with that.

For some EV truck tests, like Amazon/Rivian, it has worked better than expected.

If you expand the "EV truck" category to include delivery vans, then Rivian EDVs stand out. Local deliveries require constant stopping and starting (which EVs are good at), but with relatively low daily mileage (so range is not an issue). Charge them overnight at the yard, when rates are low, and they cost less to run than ICE. Lower maintenance than ICE. Amazon has asked Rivian for 100,000 of them.

Here is a candid review from an actual Amazon driver:

Only thing Amazon has ever done that actually benefits the driver. Only thing I’ll drive now. More room than the van, more maneuverable than the CDV/step van. AC/heated seat is amazing, and the best part for me is being able to see your whole entire route on the screen at all times. Eliminates half the problems of the shitty phones they give us to use. Be the first person to sign up for training when you get the chance. I was as skeptical as anyone, but this thing is the GOAT delivery vehicle

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[PungoteagueDave]

When you say "EV trucks", you probably mean "EV pickups", and I would agree with that.

If you expand the "EV truck" category to include delivery vans, then Rivian EDVs stand out. Local deliveries require constant stopping and starting (which EVs are good at), but with relatively low daily mileage (so range is not an issue). Charge them overnight at the yard, when rates are low, and they cost less to run than ICE. Lower maintenance than ICE. Amazon has asked Rivian for 100,000 of them.

Here is a candid review from an actual Amazon driver:

Yes, thanks, that was my point. Right tool for the job. Short haul = good, EV = good for that task. Total range comports with technology, so zero compromises except maybe price, which we don’t know, but the math must work. In the case of Amazon-Rivian, the happy employee and clean tech halo benefit can probably be measured and infused into the cost/benefit formula.

 

[vandytom]

Tesla stands to gain from Ford’s decision to ditch large EVs

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-stands-to-gain-from-fords-decision-to-ditch-large-evs/

Tesla is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Ford’s decision, especially as it will no longer have to deal with the sole pure EV pickup that outsold it from time to time: the F-150 Lightning.

Ford’s recent decision to abandon production of the all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning after the 2025 model year should yield some advantages for Tesla.

The Detroit-based automaker’s pivot away from large EVs and toward hybrids and extended-range EVs that come with a gas generator is proof that sustainable powertrains are easy on paper, but hard in reality.

Tesla is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Ford’s decision, especially as it will no longer have to deal with the sole pure EV pickup that outsold it from time to time: the F-150 Lightning.

Here’s why:

Reduced Competition in the Electric Pickup Segment
The F-150 Lightning was the Tesla Cybertruck’s primary and direct rival in the full-size electric pickup market in the United States. With Ford’s decision to end pure EV production of its best-selling truck’s electric version and shifting to hybrids/EREVs, the Cybertruck faces significantly less competition.

This could drive more fleet and retail buyers toward the Cybertruck, especially those committed to fully electric vehicles without a gas generator backup.


Strengthened Market Leadership and Brand Perception in Pure EVs
Ford’s pullback from large EVs–citing unprofitability and lack of demand for EVs of that size–highlights the challenges legacy automakers face in scaling profitable battery-electric vehicles.

Tesla, as the established leader with efficient production and vertical integration, benefits from reinforced perception as the most viable and committed pure EV manufacturer.

This can boost consumer confidence in Tesla’s long-term ecosystem over competitors retreating to hybrids. With Ford making this move, it is totally reasonable that some car buyers could be reluctant to buy from other legacy automakers.

Profitability is a key reason companies build cars; they’re businesses, and they’re there to make money.

However, Ford’s new strategy could plant a seed in the head of some who plan to buy from companies like General Motors, Stellantis, or others, who could have second thoughts. With this backtrack in EVs, other things, like less education on these specific vehicles to technicians, could make repairs more costly and tougher to schedule.


Potential Increases in Market Share for Large EVs
Interestingly, this could play right into the hands of Tesla fans who have been asking for the company to make a larger EV, specifically a full-size SUV.

Customers seeking large, high-capability electric trucks or SUVs could now look to Tesla for its Cybertruck or potentially a future vehicle release, which the company has hinted at on several occasions this year.

With Ford reallocating resources away from large pure EVs and taking a $19.5 billion charge, Tesla stands to capture a larger slice of the remaining demand in this segment without a major U.S. competitor aggressively pursuing it.

Heard Slates reservations doing well. Cheap trucks still going.

 

[Spartacus]

Hope that euro customers get a chance at buying cybertrucks. My appearance at the Kennedy Space Center last month shows how much curiosity is out there. When leaving there were Italians taking selfies, Engishmen and many others who had questions? Spend about an hour with a parade of non americans.

 

[AO-Pete]

Hope that euro customers get a chance at buying cybertrucks. My appearance at the Kennedy Space Center last month shows how much curiosity is out there. When leaving there were Italians taking selfies, Engishmen and many others who had questions? Spend about an hour with a parade of non americans.

Not without a substantial front-end redesign to meet the pedestrian safety standards in the EU & UK. Seems unlikely Tesla will invest in that, at this point.

 

[YDR37]

Not without a substantial front-end redesign to meet the pedestrian safety standards in the EU & UK. Seems unlikely Tesla will invest in that, at this point.

Another problem with importing the Cybertruck to Europe: the tariff wars. The Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck (unlike the 3/Y) are only made in the US, and are therefore now subject to hefty tariffs when imported to Europe.

A Model S in the EU now starts at 109,990 euros, equivalent to about $129,000 at current exchange rates. A Model X now starts at 114,990 euros, equivalent to about $135,000. Not surprisingly, sales of the S/X in Europe have fallen to very low levels. It seems likely that even an AWD CT would be priced at the equivalent of at least $105,000 - $110,000 in Europe, maybe more.

The UK is a large market outside the EU, so could potentially have a different trade deal. But Tesla doesn't even market the S/X there, because then they would have to develop versions with right-hand drive. Again, same issue would apply to the CT, although it would likely be easier with the CT due to the steer-by-wire design.

 

[BlueLightning]

NO, disagree!

If Ford Lightning was ever a threat Tesla would have released a stripped down economical $39,995 Cybertruck in 2021 when Ford dropped the Lightning on us.

Tesla has always been its greatest threat from 2021-2025 in regards to CT sales.

 

[mhaze]

I can't get past other vehicles not having the triangle look.

It all comes down to this : should Truck look like rectangles or triangles?

 

[Effonefiddy Lightning]

It all comes down to this : should Truck look like rectangles or triangles?

It should look like what is useful to the customers needs.

 

[HaulingAss]

An EV truck isn’t a reasonable choice for the majority of truck buyers, which are fleets and tradespeople.

I'm having trouble believing you are talking about the United States here.

Fleets comprise only around 15%-20% of light truck sales. While pickups are popular for both personal and commercial use, including use by tradespeople, data indicates that retail consumers (individuals buying for non-business purposes) dominate the light truck market.

 

[HaulingAss]

I think this is why Slate has potential, if they deliver to the expectations they're setting up.

That is the problem, the expectations Slate is setting up are very unlikely to be met. It will be cheap, but not mid-$20K cheap. But it will be sized to make you think it should only cost mid $25K. And it will drive like it should only cost $25K. And it will not get 5 star safety rating in every category. And with an advertised range of either 150 miles or 240 miles, it doesn't deliver on the range front either.

Tesla was successful because they *didn't* build a glorified golf cart. The Slate looks like it *will* be a glorified golf cart. Slate has a *huge* uphill battle ahead of them. I hope they meet and beat those challenges, but I don't want to sound delusional.

 

[HaulingAss]

Given the slow uptake with the Tesla Semi, there must be either (1) a production supply limit (2) infrastructure availability limit or (3) a limit based on initial cost.

Huh? We don't have to guess, the factory isn't done yet. Every Cybertruck out there was hand-built. The factory has been being rapidly constructed and out-fitted with production equipment through 2025 and should be ready to start a mass production ramp in the first half of 2026.

All existing Tesla Semi have been laboriously hand-built in small batches (and they had no trouble selling them). In 2026 you will witness the (relatively) slow ramp of the Tesla Semi and they will be delivered to customers as they come off the line and pass the basic quality control tests. The early charging infrastructure is being built out right now. It's the customers that are waiting, the Tesla Semi team is quietly working their asses off.

 

[YDR37]

Hope that euro customers get a chance at buying cybertrucks.

As noted in previous posts, it seems unlikely that Tesla will market the Cybertruck in Europe. This was seemingly just confirmed by the head of the Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin, who was quoted in a German publication earlier this week. As translated by Safari:

Tesla's plant manager in Grünheide, André Thierig, no longer expects the Cybertruck to market launch in Europe. At an internal event, he said: "I don't see the product here in higher quantities on European roads."

 

[Fugue]

As noted in previous posts, it seems unlikely that Tesla will market the Cybertruck in Europe. This was seemingly just confirmed by the head of the Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin, who was quoted in a German publication earlier this week. As translated by Safari:

All the more reason to give the 3 and Y steer-by-wire for the right hand drive markets.

 

[YDR37]

All the more reason to give the 3 and Y steer-by-wire for the right hand drive markets.

It would be nice to add steer-by-wire to the M3 and MY, but this is not needed for right-hand-drive markets, because has Telsa already developed RHD versions of those high-volume models. I believe the Berlin factory makes the RHD MYs for Europe (UK/Ireland). The Shanghai factory makes the RHD MYs for Asia and Australia, and also all RHD M3s.

I don't think the US factories (Fremont and Austin) make any RHDs. The Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck are made only in the US, and there are no RHD versions, presumably because these are low-volume models and the investment wouldn't be worth it.

So in France, which has LHD like the US, the Tesla website offers the full S3XY lineup. But across the channel in the UK, which has RHD, the Tesla lineup consists only of the 3Y; they don't offer the SX because Tesla doesn't make RHD versions.

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