Agree? Tesla & Cybertruck stand to gain from Lightning EV cancellation & Ford's pivot to hybrids (article)

[AO-Pete]

I doubt Tesla/CT will gain much, if anything, from the Lightning being ditched.

Those potential buyers will either wait for the hybrid F150 or buy another gas truck, they're totally different markets (unless Tesla slashes the price and adds range). We're not going to see Cybertruck's in volume on any real jobsites any time soon. If anything, the 'trucks ain't ready to be EV's' mindset will spread, and hurt CT sales even more, the loss of the Lightning is a bad thing overall, and if Ford can't make it work (arguably the most progressive of the legacy automakers), then none of the legacy automakers can, at least not in the present political climate.

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[⛽️?]

I doubt Tesla/CT will gain much, if anything, from the Lightning being ditched.

Those potential buyers will either wait for the hybrid F150 or buy another gas truck, they're totally different markets (unless Tesla slashes the price and adds range). We're not going to see Cybertruck's in volume on any real jobsites any time soon. If anything, the 'trucks ain't ready to be EV's' mindset will spread, and hurt CT sales even more, the loss of the Lightning is a bad thing overall, and if Ford can't make it work (arguably the most progressive of the legacy automakers), then none of the legacy automakers can, at least not in the present political climate.

What if : Cybertruck $80k Cyberbeast 100k with FSD, lifetime free supercharging, all terrain with cyberwheels only! Make the cybertruck/cyberbeast the only models available for lifetime free supercharging. (Bigger battery)

Opinion on the core wheels with the smaller cyberwheelcap-looks out of place or doesnt fit the cybertruck? Can they F150 the smaller core wheelcaps

 

[YDR37]

I doubt Tesla/CT will gain much, if anything, from the Lightning being ditched.

In 2024, Tesla sold somewhere around 40,000 - 45,000 Cybertrucks. Cox estimated 38,965 in the US; add a few thousand more for Canada and Mexico.

In 2025, Tesla will sell somewhere around 20,000 - 25,000 CTs. Cox estimated 16,097 in the US through 3Q. That doesn't include 4Q, but the 4Q number will be low. Again, add a couple thousand for international sales (including South Korea).

In 2026, CT sales will most likely fall again, even without competition from the Lightning. During most of 2025, it was possible to get an AWD CT for only $72,490 with the federal tax credit. For 2026, there will be no tax credit, and Tesla shows no signs of discounting. The effective starting price of a CT has therefore risen to $79,990, an increase of about 10%. That won't help sales.

 

[dalton108]

I doubt Tesla/CT will gain much, if anything, from the Lightning being ditched.

Those potential buyers will either wait for the hybrid F150 or buy another gas truck, they're totally different markets (unless Tesla slashes the price and adds range). We're not going to see Cybertruck's in volume on any real jobsites any time soon. If anything, the 'trucks ain't ready to be EV's' mindset will spread, and hurt CT sales even more, the loss of the Lightning is a bad thing overall, and if Ford can't make it work (arguably the most progressive of the legacy automakers), then none of the legacy automakers can, at least not in the present political climate.

BINGO.

 

[SCTesla]

In 2024, Tesla sold somewhere around 40,000 - 45,000 Cybertrucks. Cox estimated 38,965 in the US; add a few thousand more for Canada and Mexico.

In 2025, Tesla will sell somewhere around 20,000 - 25,000 CTs. Cox estimated 16,097 in the US through 3Q. That doesn't include 4Q, but the 4Q number will be low. Again, add a couple thousand for international sales (including South Korea).

In 2026, CT sales will most likely fall again, even without competition from the Lightning. During most of 2025, it was possible to get an AWD CT for only $72,490 with the federal tax credit. For 2026, there will be no tax credit, and Tesla shows no signs of discounting. The effective starting price of a CT has therefore risen to $79,990, an increase of about 10%. That won't help sales.

I think Q4 numbers will be boosted by Elon buying potentially thousands of CTs for his other companies.

 

[Musicurry]

The Cybertruck competes more with Rivian, Slate or even the MX than any of the traditional truck/cargo drivers. We are interested in tech, efficiency, and multipurpose. We get CTs stunning good looks thrown in for free! In WA and the greater NW I still get condemnation, but the finger-waves have mostly disappeared. We are the only advertising the CT gets, so I believe sales will pick up as we keep driving respectfully and enjoying all the amazing capabilities it has.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I doubt Tesla/CT will gain much, if anything, from the Lightning being ditched.

Those potential buyers will either wait for the hybrid F150 or buy another gas truck, they're totally different markets (unless Tesla slashes the price and adds range). We're not going to see Cybertruck's in volume on any real jobsites any time soon. If anything, the 'trucks ain't ready to be EV's' mindset will spread, and hurt CT sales even more, the loss of the Lightning is a bad thing overall, and if Ford can't make it work (arguably the most progressive of the legacy automakers), then none of the legacy automakers can, at least not in the present political climate.

Agreed. I don’t think Tesla will gain a single sale as a result of this decision. Ford has sold roughly twice as many Lightning EVs as Tesla has sold CTs since inception. I had one because it beat the CT to market by 18 months, but had both on order, as well as a GMC Sierra EV.

The Sierra is a great truck and I would have purchased my ordered unit after test driving it, except for the FSD element in my CT. I cannot get over how much more advanced the CT’s driver assist features are compared to anything by any other manufacturer, all of whom are at least years behind. The Sierra’s much larger battery makes it better at doing truck things, but every EV requires compromises and FSD trumps towing range for me despite the fact that I tow very often. I was, however, slightly snookered because when I made the final decision prioritizing the CT over the Sierra, Tesla was still promising the range extender, including taking preorder deposits.

The bigger issue for every EV truck maker is the overall lack of demand for EV trucks. Tesla led the advent of modern EV autos by introducing the Model S as a no-compromise alternative that in some respects was better than any vehicle then on the road. The keys were range and power. Eventually cost also came to bear with the Y and 3.

EV automobiles are legit choices for almost anyone. An EV truck isn’t a reasonable choice for the majority of truck buyers, which are fleets and tradespeople. Price alone ensures that, but range in the real truck world wasn’t solved in the CT or any EV truck at a price point within $20k of a normal work truck. They forgot what made the original Model S a success. No compromises.

Elon promised truck range and features and then found the tech wasn’t there yet. That’s being kind, as there was likely always an internal understanding that many elements couldn’t actually happen, such as exoskeleton, range, towing specs, etc. It’s still the best thing I’ve ever owned and I wouldn’t give it up except for a revision that gets closer to the original design spec.

 

[YDR37]

I think Q4 numbers will be boosted by Elon buying potentially thousands of CTs for his other companies.

OK, you could be right. But even if we boost the 2025 sales numbers some more, maybe to the 25,000 - 30,000 range, it still wouldn't change the big picture.

2025 sales would still be down from 2024. And it would become even more difficult for 2026 sales to match 2025.

 

[sefar]

I doubt it will benefit Tesla. Ram made the same decision and cancelled their EV before it even came online in favor of a model with a generator like GM does with the Volt and the long dead Cadillac ELR. Ford followed along. GM's EV truck has substantially more range than the CT and the F150 was anemic.

I think the range issue for an EV truck towing a trailer is a killer to a lot of users. I only tow a trailer a few times a year but it is definitely an issue and if there aren't SC on the route I borrow or rent an ICE truck.

The CT meets my needs and is fun to drive but that trailer thing is a killer for a lot of users I suspect. Until more efficient batteries come online, EV trucks will see limited adoption.

 

[Ken in Miami]

My daughter has the electric Escalade and it is a very fine automobile. Her husband has a beast and they both drive each other’s vehicles. They are not similar in any way and they are both fine vehicles.

 

[Amuma]

If it wasnt for the Cybertruck being a truck with Teslas software and FSD I would've went with the Sierra EV all day. But GM software sucks in comparison to Tesla. I plan on keeping my FSAWD for a very long time. I cannot imagine HW5 will be that much of an improvement over HW4 in the FSD category that would warrant an upgrade. There will have to be some major upgrades in addition. But this truck is awesome outside of a few cosmetic issues all being or been addressed. Tesla software is what keeps me in this ecosystem.

 

[AO-Pete]

Tesla led the advent of modern EV autos by introducing the Model S as a no-compromise alternative that in some respects was better than any vehicle then on the road

^ This. The MS competed on every front in that space at the time, including price, and obviously exceeded in terms of 0-60 and TCO. EV trucks, from any company, are not doing that yet. Too expensive and not enough range (even worse when towing). That's fine for a lot of us, that don't 'need' a truck a lot of the time, it's still a really fast, great handling vehicle, with FSD. But fleet buyers and job site workers don't care - at all - about that. Even with the polarizing looks and brand, if the CT had launched at $39,900/250mls, it could have changed the market. I think this is why Slate has potential, if they deliver to the expectations they're setting up.

 

[henchman24]

I see zero real impact. If there is one, it is a slight negative as it adds to the EV truck stigma.

 

[CyberTrk]

Elon promised truck range and features and then found the tech wasn’t there yet.

I hope that the Tesla Semi will not get the same kind of tale as the Cybertruck...

The Semi, being a commercial vehicle, has different expectations (efficiency, reliability for fleets), but it also deals with range anxiety, charging infrastructure, and proving real-world cost-savings, needing to deliver on its promises better than the Cybertruck initially did.

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I hope that the Tesla Semi will not get the same kind of tale as the Cybertruck...

The Semi, being a commercial vehicle, has different expectations (efficiency, reliability for fleets), but it also deals with range anxiety, charging infrastructure, and proving real-world cost-savings, needing to deliver on its promises better than the Cybertruck initially did.

I think that’s a bit easier, as sentiment and design characteristics make no difference - it’s simply fleet-level math for potential buyers, most of whom have truck lifecycle analysis systems and are tiptoeing in with test units or small fleets, For some EV truck tests, like Amazon/Rivian, it has worked better than expected.

Given the slow uptake with the Tesla Semi, there must be either (1) a production supply limit (2) infrastructure availability limit or (3) a limit based on initial cost. Semi buyers will purchase whatever works at the lowest lifecycle price, perhaps with some subsidy for “clean” benefits, but not much in that respect. It’s pretty clear that the Tesla Semi works best in local port operations and short-haul, not so much for interstate long-haul. There are a few semi-size charging locations but widespread availability would cost billons. Unlike with the Supercharger network, that’s a much bigger chicken-and-egg problem to solve.

Given that it’s pure math, the Semi either works or it doesn’t, depending on use case. I don’t think we have enough data at this point to know, but users and Tesla certainly do, so we should know relatively shortly - they either start building volume or they don’t and the conclusion will be obvious. I haven’t noticed Elon saying much about the Semi in recent public statements. Have I missed something?

The other issue is that total worldwide demand for large semi trucks isn’t a huge market. They last a long time, so sales aren’t a big upside for Tesla. Putting numbers to it, total annual Semi truck sales in the U.S. are about 270,000 units, and worldwide sales are about 2 million units. If Tesla gets 10% of market share, that’s still not a significant business compared to their light vehicle sales.

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