Agree? Tesla & Cybertruck stand to gain from Lightning EV cancellation & Ford's pivot to hybrids (article)

[Fugue]

It would be nice to add steer-by-wire to the M3 and MY, but this is not needed for right-hand-drive markets, because has Telsa already developed RHD versions of those high-volume models.

It's not needed, but it would narrow the differences between LHD and RHD.

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[CTSoFL]

Tesla stands to gain from Ford’s decision to ditch large EVs

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-stands-to-gain-from-fords-decision-to-ditch-large-evs/

Tesla is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Ford’s decision, especially as it will no longer have to deal with the sole pure EV pickup that outsold it from time to time: the F-150 Lightning.

Ford’s recent decision to abandon production of the all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning after the 2025 model year should yield some advantages for Tesla.

The Detroit-based automaker’s pivot away from large EVs and toward hybrids and extended-range EVs that come with a gas generator is proof that sustainable powertrains are easy on paper, but hard in reality.

Tesla is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Ford’s decision, especially as it will no longer have to deal with the sole pure EV pickup that outsold it from time to time: the F-150 Lightning.

Here’s why:

Reduced Competition in the Electric Pickup Segment
The F-150 Lightning was the Tesla Cybertruck’s primary and direct rival in the full-size electric pickup market in the United States. With Ford’s decision to end pure EV production of its best-selling truck’s electric version and shifting to hybrids/EREVs, the Cybertruck faces significantly less competition.

This could drive more fleet and retail buyers toward the Cybertruck, especially those committed to fully electric vehicles without a gas generator backup.


Strengthened Market Leadership and Brand Perception in Pure EVs
Ford’s pullback from large EVs–citing unprofitability and lack of demand for EVs of that size–highlights the challenges legacy automakers face in scaling profitable battery-electric vehicles.

Tesla, as the established leader with efficient production and vertical integration, benefits from reinforced perception as the most viable and committed pure EV manufacturer.

This can boost consumer confidence in Tesla’s long-term ecosystem over competitors retreating to hybrids. With Ford making this move, it is totally reasonable that some car buyers could be reluctant to buy from other legacy automakers.

Profitability is a key reason companies build cars; they’re businesses, and they’re there to make money.

However, Ford’s new strategy could plant a seed in the head of some who plan to buy from companies like General Motors, Stellantis, or others, who could have second thoughts. With this backtrack in EVs, other things, like less education on these specific vehicles to technicians, could make repairs more costly and tougher to schedule.


Potential Increases in Market Share for Large EVs
Interestingly, this could play right into the hands of Tesla fans who have been asking for the company to make a larger EV, specifically a full-size SUV.

Customers seeking large, high-capability electric trucks or SUVs could now look to Tesla for its Cybertruck or potentially a future vehicle release, which the company has hinted at on several occasions this year.

With Ford reallocating resources away from large pure EVs and taking a $19.5 billion charge, Tesla stands to capture a larger slice of the remaining demand in this segment without a major U.S. competitor aggressively pursuing it.

Ford and Scout going to EREV model for trucks, IMHO, is very smart.

Until battery tech enables longer distance under load, EREV technology just makes sense to bubbas and bubbettes who actually have to haul/tow things.

I think it bleeds sales from CT.

 

[YDR37]

Ford and Scout going to EREV model for trucks, IMHO, is very smart.

Until battery tech enables longer distance under load, EREV technology just makes sense to bubbas and bubbettes who actually have to haul/tow things.

I think it bleeds sales from CT.

The Ford and Scout EREVs aren't expected to be available until 2027, so they won't bleed any sales from the Cybertruck in the near term.

The one to watch for is the Ram 1500 EREV. Ram is currently advertising availability in 2026, with 690 miles of range, 14,000 lbs of towing capacity, and 2,625 lbs payload. Obviously those are competitive numbers, and Ram is already bragging about them:

The All-New Ram 1500 REV offers More Range, Towing and Payload than any Electric Pickup Truck in its Class and is set to be a game changer in the world of electric pickup trucks.

Big question mark is price. Car & Driver is estimating $60K for the work-truck Tradesman trim; $80K for Limited; $100K for Tungsten. But I wouldn't put a lot of trust in any numbers until Ram makes it official.

 

[YDR37]

The one to watch for is the Ram 1500 EREV. Ram is currently advertising availability in 2026, with 690 miles of range, 14,000 lbs of towing capacity, and 2,625 lbs payload. Obviously those are competitive numbers, and Ram is already bragging about them

So far, no EV pickup truck has been a significant commercial success. But by this time next year, we should have some idea whether EREVs are the answer that truck buyers have been waiting for.

Another possible answer: inexpensive compact/midsized EV pickups. Slate is targeting deliveries in late 2026. If they meet that goal (not guaranteed), then we could see the results of that strategy by this time next year as well.

 

[mhaze]

So far, no EV pickup truck has been a significant commercial success. But by this time next year, we should have some idea whether EREVs are the answer that truck buyers have been waiting for.

Another possible answer: inexpensive compact/midsized EV pickups. Slate is targeting deliveries in late 2026. If they meet that goal (not guaranteed), then we could see the results of that strategy by this time next year as well.

What Ford is offering is XL, StX, XLT, FX4, Lariat, King Ranch, Platinum, Limited, Tremor, Raptor, EcoBoost, and Power Stroke. Unchanged in ten years or more.

ALL it takes for EVs to dominate is a doubling of battery pack endurance. It's really that simple. And that's just a matter of time at this point. If batteries continue more or less as they are today, Ford continues to make trucks. If 2027 batteries enable trucks to run 600 or 900 miles instead of 300, Ford is likely to stop making trucks. Maybe it's batteries in the year 2033 that do this.

 

[YDR37]

What Ford is offering is XL, StX, XLT, FX4, Lariat, King Ranch, Platinum, Limited, Tremor, Raptor, EcoBoost, and Power Stroke. Unchanged in ten years or more.

By my count, Ford has offered four different kinds of power trains for pickups in recent years, and if the EREV hits the market in 2027, it will be the fifth:

(1) Gasoline-only (obviously). Traditional pickups. Wheels connected to gas engine. No electric motor or associated battery.

(2) Mild hybrid. Mavericks, F-150 PowerBoost. Wheels connected to gas engine. Small battery that captures energy while braking, and returns it as needed, via a small motor, to boost the gas engine.

(3) Plug-in hybrid. Ranger in Europe. Wheels connected to both gas engine and electric motor. Battery allows 25 miles of electric-only range; gas engine kicks in after that.

(4) Extended-Range hybrid. Forthcoming 2027 EREV. Wheels connected to electric motors. Gasoline engine, but not connected to wheels; acts as generator to recharge the battery for the motor.

(5) "Pure" Battery EV. Ford Lightning, forthcoming 2027 small truck. Wheels connected to electric motors. Battery power only, no gas engine.

Seems like Ford is prepared to experiment. So the cancellation of the Lightning is not the end of Ford's EV truck journey. My guess is that they will continue to throw things at the wall until they find something that sticks.

 

[pricedm]

@YDR37 add (6) diesel to the list

 

[mhaze]

By my count, Ford has offered four different kinds of power trains for pickups in recent years, and if the EREV hits the market in 2027, it will be the fifth:.

do you think any of those half way EV measures would survive a doubling or tripling of battery range capacity?

(Diesel IMO is a very separate category and has merits and uses that go well beyond electric or gasoline)

 

[YDR37]

do you think any of those half way EV measures would survive a doubling or tripling of battery range capacity?

Depends on the cost and weight of those hypothetical next-generation batteries.

We would all like to see a future where electricity is cheap, chargers are everywhere, and batteries are fast-charging, high-capacity, lightweight, and inexpensive. We may well reach that future someday. And if we do, then it's hard to see why ICE or hybrid vehicles would still be necessary.

But it could be years before we get to that point. And in that case, there will still be plenty of opportunities for Ford (and other companies) to sell ICE and hybrid vehicles.

 

[mhaze]

The Ford and Scout EREVs aren't expected to be available until 2027, so they won't bleed any sales from the Cybertruck in the near term.

The one to watch for is the Ram 1500 EREV. Ram is currently advertising availability in 2026, with 690 miles of range, 14,000 lbs of towing capacity, and 2,625 lbs payload. Obviously those are competitive numbers, and Ram is already bragging about them:
Big question mark is price. Car & Driver is estimating $60K for the work-truck Tradesman trim; $80K for Limited; $100K for Tungsten. But I wouldn't put a lot of trust in any numbers until Ram makes it official.

WOW! I am seeing this truck is promoted as having Advanced Driver Assist Modes!

Active Lane Management!

"Should the truck veer into a lane where another vehicle or obstacle is detected in the blind spot, the available Active Lane Management System can provide steering correction to help the driver avoid a potential collision"

 

[Gaximus]

What if : Cybertruck $80k Cyberbeast 100k with FSD, lifetime free supercharging, all terrain with cyberwheels only! Make the cybertruck/cyberbeast the only models available for lifetime free supercharging. (Bigger battery)

Opinion on the core wheels with the smaller cyberwheelcap-looks out of place or doesnt fit the cybertruck? Can they F150 the smaller core wheelcaps

The people buying a truck for truck reasons don’t care how much comes with $80k+, but “what can I get for < $60k.

But to the OP, ford couldn’t make it work, because they couldn’t make it profitable, they sold each one at a los, hoping it would take off, increase production and then start making a profit. Ford is a legacy company, it won’t figure this out. This true for almost all manufacturers except Tesla, they sell and profit from each one.

 

[⛽️?]

The people buying a truck for truck reasons don’t care how much comes with $80k+, but “what can I get for < $60k.

But to the OP, ford couldn’t make it work, because they couldn’t make it profitable, they sold each one at a los, hoping it would take off, increase production and then start making a profit. Ford is a legacy company, it won’t figure this out. This true for almost all manufacturers except Tesla, they sell and profit from each one.

What can you get for <60 and then put 40k in gas over 250k miles , so you’ll end up paying 100k . I’d say the 80 and countless more options that it offers is a no brainer, then add fuel savings. I could go on and on. Vehicle can drive itself

Hint: Cybertruck does truck things and much more. If I needed a truck for truck reasons I’d pick the Cybertruck with out a doubt. Unless I lived in Montana or a cold climate. I can see where that may be an issue people looking for trucks that do truck things.

 

[Gaximus]

What can you get for <60 and then put 40k in gas over 250k miles , so you’ll end up paying 100k . I’d say the 80 and countless more options that it offers is a no brainer, then add fuel savings. I could go on and on. Vehicle can drive itself

Hint: Cybertruck does truck things and much more. If I needed a truck for truck reasons I’d pick the Cybertruck with out a doubt. Unless I lived in Montana or a cold climate. I can see where that may be an issue people looking for trucks that do truck things.

I totally agree. But the people looking to buy a work truck don’t see it that way, and most of the time can’t afford the upfront cost.

 

[CyberTrk]

(4) Extended-Range hybrid. Forthcoming 2027 EREV. Wheels connected to electric motors. Gasoline engine, but not connected to wheels; acts as generator to recharge the battery for the motor.

While I would prefer a 100% "Pure" Battery EV, I like the series hybrid design, or range extender (REX) design, in fact some large Trucks and Semi use this type of layout, similar to a Diesel Locomotive.

Diesel Locomotive Concept Truck​

​

Note: The great advantage for Semi is to remove the multi gear box ​

(like 30 gears combination) with maybe only a 3 gears one.​

​

Also, using only electric motors allow to connect the motors directly to the wheels​

removing the transfer axial, or drive shafts, thus improving efficiency,​

especially compared to a (3) Plug-in hybrid in EV mode.​

One of the drawback is that you need to have a generator able to produce
enough energy to fully move the truck when the batteries are empty,
otherwise you will have to drive at a reduce speed, like the BMW i3 low speed issue.

Note: About the "BMW i3 low speed issue" the optional Range Extender (REx) ​

version could lose significant power and slow to around 40-55 mph, ​

especially under load (uphill, with passengers, or cold), ​

often triggering a "Reduced Engine Power" warning as the car tried ​

to manage battery charging. This leaded to lawsuits over sudden,​

unexpected power reduction.​

 

[PungoteagueDave]

I'm having trouble believing you are talking about the United States here.

Fleets comprise only around 15%-20% of light truck sales. While pickups are popular for both personal and commercial use, including use by tradespeople, data indicates that retail consumers (individuals buying for non-business purposes) dominate the light truck market.

You could not be more incorrect. In 2024, approximately 39% of all new pickup truck sales were for commercial fleet purchases, while the remaining 61% were for personal use (retail sales). The commercial use market dominates design decisions that control base work truck pricing that applies to the utilities, police departments, electricians and other contractors who use the trucks for actual truck things and not personal transportation. That is the meat and potatoes part of why light trucks exist and forms the baseline requirement for a full size pickup that can sell new and still profitably for under $40k. After meeting that criteria, and only after, it becomes a platform for enhanced features and luxury elements that constitute the more expensive personal use market for trucks - these features are added to the mix without compromising the basic work truck elements.

Tesla made a lot of noises at the original announcement about meeting such pricing and content objectives and then abandoned it completely after two added years of delay during development, as they ran up against cost vs content brick walls that couldn’t be overcome. They eventually had to release a compromise truck to the market that did not meet the specs outlined in the original announcement and design objectives. They were forced by basic physics to throw in the towel and went full luxury, abandoning the fleet buyer market.

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