Model Y Refresh (Juniper) Revealed

[JBee]

When a system gets too far from optimum it is broken.

If so then it was SBW that broke it because it needed so much power, along with RWS.
CT still has 12V as well btw.

 

[GuyV]

Real world means a "400 mile" pack doesn't give you 400 miles so it's not a 6 hour trip, more like 5, and yes I can usually do 5 hours without stopping and I'd like it to be my choice not the vehicle's. Following your logic there is no need for more than maybe a 150 mile range pack to avoid plugging in for a few minutes at a time. You also ignore the fact that a larger pack will be running at a lower C rate for the same power level and will last longer.


During long distance highway travel, when range actually matters, weight has a far lower impact than aerodynamics, plus the extra capacity would only add the weight of about one additional passenger. You notice a range difference when you carry a passenger? I don't. You also ignore the continued improvement in battery energy density which means extra capacity without weight penalty.

That would be a pretty fat passenger at almost 400lbs. For the Cybertruck that would be well over 500lbs. ?

 

[GuyV]

I think Tesla needs to advertise on TV and social media. Ford and GM advertise blue cruise and super cruise respectively and if people are at all impressed by that then FSD will blow them away. 8k for an always improving personal chauffer for the lifetime of your vehicle is a great deal. Most people I know are well educated and make a good amount of money and their knowledge of Tesla features, especially FSD and even EVs in general is terrible.

General public thinks EV are overpriced, less reliable than ICE, and range is too short. Each headline about Tesla recalling essentially every vehicle hurts perception even though most recalls are simple OTA fixes. All these concerns are mostly myths but perception is reality.

I think the new model Y will cause the stock to drop in the short term as it likely doesn't have enough new features to justify current Tesla owners upgrading so investors will sell. Steer by wire, significantly more range and powershare would have helped.

I also think Tesla needs to tie their energy business more to their vehicles. That business is growing fast and it creates network effects like Apple products do. If you buy a Tesla with powershare or get a powerwall with solar panels and charge on solar and/or can power your house it creates a disincentive to get an ICE car or a rivian etc. because you are giving up your generator.

Tesla is still grossly milking the price of Powerwalls. They are batteries, electronics and software. At scale, software and electronics costs are dirt cheap. At estimated battery costs, the 12kWh or so in a Powerwall is no more than 10-15% of what they are selling for.

 

[GuyV]

If so then it was SBW that broke it because it needed so much power, along with RWS.
CT still has 12V as well btw.

For the Cybertruck I wouldn't disagree, but 12V has been inhibiting what is practical to add to vehicles generally for some time. The wiring has become a huge and costly mess, yet technology and the competition for features has kept loading ever more demands upon it.

 

[GuyV]

I did not see your post but was aware of Tesla's stated goal of bidirectional charging in 2025. I think it's odd Tesla would not mention it from the beginning with the Y if powershare was possible. Your points are fair about powershare undermining powerwall sales. I don't think Musk's long view of the universe is readily discernable in a way that could inform investment actions. In the short-term, the lack of more game-changing features such as more range, powershare, steer by wire for the Y will hurt Tesla. I was also frankly surprised to see a turn signal stalk on the Y. If you are leaning into FSD why have a stalk just because some people want it?

I think because someone in China decided it was a crucial competitive feature for the Chinese market and Elon isn't willing to try to bully them into accepting things the way he thinks is good for them like he does here. It's still possible the Y produced here might not have them and might even get a squirkle.

 

[JBee]

For the Cybertruck I wouldn't disagree, but 12V has been inhibiting what is practical to add to vehicles generally for some time. The wiring has become a huge and costly mess, yet technology and the competition for features has kept loading ever more demands upon it.

I think ICE doesn't need the 48V as much as a EV does. Air Conditioners, hydraulics, pumps and alternators all run happily from a fan belt, they also don't need heating circuits etc.

The point is that on a EV 48V makes more sense, and is within reason of the power requirements of large onboard consumers that only can be powered from the onboard high voltage pack.

But as for the wiring mess, it's actually Cybertrucks bus system with local nodes that got rid of the number of cables and not 48V by itself with i2r cable losses.

 

[CyberTrk]

Tesla provided a down and dirty guide for switching from 12V to 48V to all American manufacturers.

Is it available? I would be interested to look at this document or at least get a summary.

 

[CyberTrk]

From what I've seen, most Cybertruck owners are more than happy with more than 300 miles of EPA range.

But when driving away from main highways, like spending a weekend in the countryside,
and maybe doing some boondocking, if you can't charge at your destination,
only half of your full range is available to drive back to your last charging location.

 

[BannedByTMC]

That would be a pretty fat passenger at almost 400lbs. For the Cybertruck that would be well over 500lbs. ?

I used Model 3 numbers. EPA rating is 224Wh/mi so a 400 mile pack would be 90kWh. Pack density is 166Wh/kg so an extra 10kWh = 60kg or 132lbs.

 

[Jabman]

I would have liked to see no door handles. I think it is superior to the existing “push-in pull-out” method on the current 3/Y. Plus the aerodynamic benefits

 

[HaulingAss]

Is it available? I would be interested to look at this document or at least get a summary.

Tesla sent an electrical engineering document to N. American Automaker CEO's titled "How to design a 48V vehicle". It would have contained Tesla's various learnings and recommendations to make it easier for the industry to move to 48V in lockstep rather than becoming too fragmented by non-optimal design choices.

It would have things like the most efficient ways to convert to lower voltages, 48V arc prevention and mitigation strategies, fusing considerations, wire insulation, etc.

I haven't seen a copy of it (beyond it's cover) but it might be out there. This has been under-reported in the mainstream media because they don't want to show the truth, that Elon is trying to drag the rest of the EV makers with him, not shut them out with anti-competitive cut-throat business tactics. Elon *wants* other manufacturers to make millions of EVs, that is the stated goal of the company, to accelerate the transition to sustainable energies. Elon has re-iterated this many times (that he wants a vigorous EV market) and he has many actions that prove it to anyone paying attention.

Instead we have reporting that Elon is going to use his influence with the President to unfairly squash Tesla competitors. Just complete idiocy to anyone who understands what is *really* going on.

 

[HaulingAss]

But when driving away from main highways, like spending a weekend in the countryside,
and maybe doing some boondocking, if you can't charge at your destination,
only half of your full range is available to drive back to your last charging location.

You can always bring up rare edge cases, I'm speaking to mainstream motorists. Most of them never go anywhere electricity is not available. Currently, only 10% of motorists drive electric so we still have a lot of growth to do before we have to cover every edge case. 99.99% of all structures in America are served by electricity and the DCFC networks keep growing to increasingly remote locations.

99.999% of all car trips go between places served by electricity. Edge cases are endlessly amplified by anti-EV forces who want gullible people to think that an electric car couldn't possibly be a better solution than a gasoline powered car.

 

[VAF84]

I really like the new design. I'm sort of forcing my wife into the EV world with the Model Y. She's pissed about giving up her Yukon, but based on the number of posts I've seen across EV forums of posters whose spouses have ended up loving the experience I'm going to have to suffer a few hits to to see if she takes to it.

Agree with the expected drop in sales until new model comes out. I'm an example of a buyer that is ready to make the switch today, but going to wait for the redesign. I might get talked into current model since we're going to try out our first lease and the deal seems great. I'm just not sure how the deal will change with a new one; if it's notably worse we may go with this model.

Regarding size. It's one of the only a handful of 3 row SUV EV's in the market; really one of two without going over $80k. It's an insane deal. It's sub $500 a mo, with a sub 5 sec 0-60, access to supercharger network, and included ACC w/ lane center. The other higher priced options don't even offer more range to compensate and require high trims for better cruise control tech. The only thing that comes close is the EV9. However as she will be a first time EV driver who is practically anti-tech, I want the least opportunities for "see, I told you" challenges; and want to minimize charging issues. Model Y is the safest bet.

Noted the usual "you don't need range" people here. Prior EV owner here that passed on the CT almost entirely due to lack of range. I spent $10k more for Serra EV's 440mi range. No offense, but that type of thought that reflects a lack of empathy to the experiences and reality of a large population that don't share your lifestyle. Same crowd that says "who needs a truck', "who needs the added performance", "who needs that much space". Hey, I get it though. When I was young and didn't get out of my bubble I said the some of the same things out of ignorance. Only 4-8% of American's own EV's. Imagine how many more people would own one if offered what they are requesting; rather than being scolding for not adhering to preconceived notions of what they should own from a subset of the population.

 

[JBee]

You can always bring up rare edge cases, I'm speaking to mainstream motorists. Most of them never go anywhere electricity is not available. Currently, only 10% of motorists drive electric so we still have a lot of growth to do before we have to cover every edge case. 99.99% of all structures in America are served by electricity and the DCFC networks keep growing to increasingly remote locations.

99.999% of all car trips go between places served by electricity. Edge cases are endlessly amplified by anti-EV forces who want gullible people to think that an electric car couldn't possibly be a better solution than a gasoline powered car.

I think you are fundamentally wrong.

This might be closer to what its like in the USA, but not the rest of the world.

Our state is being actively de-networked, because remote off grid PV systems are being installed instead, because they cost less to run than maintaining the network they replace.

But these systems can barely run a Level 2, DCFC is out of the question for most towns even.

 

[YDR37]

But when driving away from main highways, like spending a weekend in the countryside,
and maybe doing some boondocking, if you can't charge at your destination,
only half of your full range is available to drive back to your last charging location.

True, and I would argue that using a pickup truck in the countryside or the boondocks should not really be considered an "edge case".