Considering TSLA is up 145% in the last 6 months... [WARNING: NO POLITICS, ONLY POLICY]

[HaulingAss]

Considering recent TSLA performance, the General TSLA News and Investing Discussions forum seems pretty dead.

It was less than a year ago that I was posting that TSLA was a "no-brainer" investment at $175/share if you had a two-year time horizon. Now it's at $436/share!

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[ABILISK]

Imagine what it will be worth in like 2030 with a prominent Cybercab network and unsupervised FSD. We’ll all be millionaires. I wouldn’t sell TSLA shares for anything right now.

 

[Mini2nut]

Mr. Trump has definitely influenced the stock price.

Shareholder since 2018 when Tesla was 3-months away from declaring bankruptcy.

 

[pricedm]

Imagine what it will be worth in like 2030 with a prominent Cybercab network and unsupervised FSD. We’ll all be millionaires. I wouldn’t sell TSLA shares for anything right now.

Buy, buy, buy and HOLD!

 

[Som3_Guy]

I've owned chunks of TSLA bought since 2017 and learned a few things:

1. It's not a stock for anyone who doesn't have a strong stomach. It's Mr. Toad's Wild Ride. It's gonna up and down wildly, sometimes based on results and the EV market, and sometimes God only knows why.
2. Buying TSLA now is like buying Ford in 1920; the auto industry in its infancy then, just as the EV industry is now. If your horizon is long term, buy and hold and don't get shaken by the crazy daily and weekly price swings.
3. If your horizon is short term, pick the date Elon and Trump will break up, and buy and sell accordingly. I put the over/under on that one at six months

 

[HaulingAss]

Mr. Trump has definitely influenced the stock price.

"And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much.' "

He's not even President yet and I think the amount of winning is already getting difficult to take! ?

Washington State has a recent capital gains tax on gains over $250,000/year (this is in addition to the Federal Capital Gains Tax that applies to all net gains). The $250K of gains that are exempt expires each year so it's use the exemption or lose it. Basically, it makes it so it would be stupid for someone like me to NOT take $250K in gains each year. Net result, I just took profits on a small portion of TSLA and I will continue to sell a small portion every succeeding year. If TSLA shares gain as much as I think they will, every year I will need to sell fewer and fewer shares to use up my $250K exempt amount and I will never run out of TSLA shares, unless I live to an unrealistic age of 150 or so (or I chose to take more gains sooner).

TSLA shares are the gift that just keep on giving. Never bet against Elon Musk.

 

[electricAK]

I believe to invest in a stock like TSLA, there are two good strategies:

1) DCA in, hold long term (10+ years). You really can't lose here, as long as you keep an eye out for any major strategy changes or industry developments that could jeopardize future profits.

2) Swing trade the volatility. Highly risky, but can be very productive if you're good. This has worked well for the last 3 years, but may not work well going forward.

In either case, you should have a model for the stock. What are your expectations? What is a reasonable sell point? What would be a good buy point? This kind of pre-planning can help you be flexible, avoid emotional decisions, and maximize value.

My gut feeling is that the current run-up is premature. Yes FSD has a ton of potential, but the actual profits are not in the short term...they're still distant and nebulous.

My model places a fair value of $350-$400/share based on the current business outlook for 2025. Autos and other bets. That still includes a high premium for large near term growth in autos and other services, including the potential for massive future profits from AI bets several years away.

Because of this, I decided to start selling near $400. And I'm happy to now have some profits locked in.

I'll be looking for buy points as soon as the current pop calms down.

The future is extremely bright for this company. But let's be real and not get overly exuberant. We're currently in the "Buy the rumor" phase. Next comes "Sell the news".

 

[HaulingAss]

My model places a fair value of $350-$400/share based on the current business outlook for 2025.

You cannot value a company by only looking a year forward. If I did that, I would have missed out on millions in profits back in the day from Microsoft, Starbucks and Qualcomm (amongst others).

All of these stocks became "over-valued" (based upon next year's earnings). Had I sold them at that point, or not bought them due to "over-valuation" I would not have retired at 37 years old and I would not be still getting wealthier long after I stopped working. Instead, I paid the "high" prices and let them grow into their high valuations. In hindsight the prices I paid were a bargin! The concept of "over-valuation" is widely misunderstood, even by Wall Street Analysts.

The reason for this is that many investors are willing to look farther forward than one year in order to capture outsized gains. If you want the appearance of safe and boring, invest in Proctor and Gamble, they have actually done quite well over the years. Just know that it's still not as safe as TSLA in the long run. That's why traditional analysts in the 1990's who said Microsoft was a good company but was too expensive (to responsibly invest in it) were misguided and missed out on the astronomical gains over the next decade.

The best companies to invest in are generally "over-valued" in the short-term and there is no way to tell whether investors will hold it and continue to add or if they will sour on it and sell (or refuse to keep buying). In other words, it could be perpetually over-valued (and there is no way to tell buy how much).

Personally, I think Tesla is a good value right now, even if it were $600 per share, if you have a four-year investment timeframe (and most people have a lot longer than that if they were honest with themselves). That means a dollar cost averaging strategy is the way to go, because whether TSLA will be cheaper or more expensive in 6 months to a year is a crapshoot (no one can answer that question with any authority).

I missed most of the gains in Amazon because I (wrongly) thought it was over-valued, I thought Amazon didn't have anything that any other web retailer couldn't do, AND I completely missed the growth of Amazon Web Services which now provides most of Amazon's profits. The same dynamic exists with TSLA because battery grid storage, autonomy, and robotics might all individually eclipse auto sales profits by the end of this decade.

Battery grid storage growth could, in the next year or two, show rapid enough growth that the share price remains buoyant. FSD capabilities are accelerating, even the current version 12 is pretty amazing, version 13 looks to be much better. Optimus will likely learn to perform a wide variety of tasks very quickly due to the amount of AI compute Tesla currently has. Overlook unknowns like this at the peril of your investment portfolio. No one can predict when, or how far, a high-flyer will drop. They all correct at some point, but no one knows when that will be. My personal opinion is that a correction is imminent, but that's just a guess. Worse, no one knows how far it will fall, or for how long it will decline before investors start piling back in.

That's why dollar cost averaging is the best technique for most people. If you don't already have an out-sized TSLA position, just add to it regularly, whether the price goes up or down, and hope that it goes down, rather than up, even after you have started building a position (so you can buy more shares with the same amount of money). My advice to green investors is to not look at the current value of your holdings, look at how many shares you own, of which companies, and how much you think they will be worth in 5 or 10 years.

 

[2000prerunner]

I've owned chunks of TSLA bought since 2017 and learned a few things:

1. It's not a stock for anyone who doesn't have a strong stomach. It's Mr. Toad's Wild Ride. It's gonna up and down wildly, sometimes based on results and the EV market, and sometimes God only knows why.
2. Buying TSLA now is like buying Ford in 1920; the auto industry in its infancy then, just as the EV industry is now. If your horizon is long term, buy and hold and don't get shaken by the crazy daily and weekly price swings.
3. If your horizon is short term, pick the date Elon and Trump will break up, and buy and sell accordingly. I put the over/under on that one at six months

Exactly, ride the highs , sell , then buy back the lows
Sometimes , like in nov 2021 , or now (Dec 2024), the stock price gets way ahead of itself and is basically what it is should be valued at in a few years time , so a correction or dip is inevitable. Don’t have to sell it ,could be patient and hold, but if you like to stress out , and really milk the stock you can play with it as it goes through ups and downs. More money $$$$$$. More risks too

 

[2000prerunner]

You cannot value a company by only looking a year forward. If I did that, I would have missed out on millions in profits back in the day from Microsoft, Starbucks and Qualcomm (amongst others).

All of these stocks became "over-valued" (based upon next year's earnings). Had I sold them at that point, or not bought them due to "over-valuation" I would not have retired at 37 years old and I would not be still getting wealthier long after I stopped working. Instead, I paid the "high" prices and let them grow into their high valuations. In hindsight the prices I paid were a bargin! The concept of "over-valuation" is widely misunderstood, even by Wall Street Analysts.

The reason for this is that many investors are willing to look farther forward than one year in order to capture outsized gains. If you want the appearance of safe and boring, invest in Proctor and Gamble, they have actually done quite well over the years. Just know that it's still not as safe as TSLA in the long run. That's why traditional analysts in the 1990's who said Microsoft was a good company but was too expensive (to responsibly invest in it) were misguided and missed out on the astronomical gains over the next decade.

The best companies to invest in are generally "over-valued" in the short-term and there is no way to tell whether investors will hold it and continue to add or if they will sour on it and sell (or refuse to keep buying). In other words, it could be perpetually over-valued (and there is no way to tell buy how much).

Personally, I think Tesla is a good value right now, even if it were $600 per share, if you have a four-year investment timeframe (and most people have a lot longer than that if they were honest with themselves). That means a dollar cost averaging strategy is the way to go, because whether TSLA will be cheaper or more expensive in 6 months to a year is a crapshoot (no one can answer that question with any authority).

I missed most of the gains in Amazon because I (wrongly) thought it was over-valued, I thought Amazon didn't have anything that any other web retailer couldn't do, AND I completely missed the growth of Amazon Web Services which now provides most of Amazon's profits. The same dynamic exists with TSLA because battery grid storage, autonomy, and robotics might all individually eclipse auto sales profits by the end of this decade.

Battery grid storage growth could, in the next year or two, show rapid enough growth that the share price remains buoyant. FSD capabilities are accelerating, even the current version 12 is pretty amazing, version 13 looks to be much better. Optimus will likely learn to perform a wide variety of tasks very quickly due to the amount of AI compute Tesla currently has. Overlook unknowns like this at the peril of your investment portfolio. No one can predict when, or how far, a high-flyer will drop. They all correct at some point, but no one knows when that will be. My personal opinion is that a correction is imminent, but that's just a guess. Worse, no one knows how far it will fall, or for how long it will decline before investors start piling back in.

That's why dollar cost averaging is the best technique for most people. If you don't already have an out-sized TSLA position, just add to it regularly, whether the price goes up or down, and hope that it goes down, rather than up, even after you have started building a position (so you can buy more shares with the same amount of money). My advice to green investors is to not look at the current value of your holdings, look at how many shares you own, of which companies, and how much you think they will be worth in 5 or 10 years.

True. Long term , less risk , less stress , buy at today’s price and hold . Cost averaging , ya , it will get there. But if you felt a big correction or dip was coming, I mean, just simple mathematically speaking , that would be the best time to buy in and hold right ? Literally + 30-50% your profits in the long run. You could buy the stock today at 400. And hold it for five years until it’s 2000 let’s say. Nice. Or practically speaking there’s gonna be a correction sometime next year and it might fall down to 300 again briefly. Now imagine buying it at that point and waiting till it hits 2000. Same end point but in one scenario, you made significantly more money while not having your cash locked away. Tesla is a manic stock so if there was a time to buy. It would probably make more sense to buy at one of its infamous crashes.

 

[pricedm]

"…TSLA shares are the gift that just keep on giving. Never bet against Elon Musk.

Amen!

 

[HaulingAss]

True. Long term , less risk , less stress , buy at today’s price and hold . Cost averaging , ya , it will get there. But if you felt a big correction or dip was coming, I mean, just simple mathematically speaking , that would be the best time to buy in and hold right ?

No, if you felt a big correction were coming, mathematically speaking, that would mean nothing. Because feeling a correction is coming doesn't mean it won't keep rising past 600 before the correction happens. TSLA is not a normal stock so the range of possibilities are much broader and more difficult to predict.

You could buy the stock today at 400. And hold it for five years until it’s 2000 let’s say. Nice. Or practically speaking there’s gonna be a correction sometime next year and it might fall down to 300 again briefly. Now imagine buying it at that point and waiting till it hits 2000. Same end point but in one scenario, you made significantly more money while not having your cash locked away. Tesla is a manic stock so if there was a time to buy. It would probably make more sense to buy at one of its infamous crashes.

First of all, no, you can't buy the stock today at $400, when pre-market opens up it could be more or less than $435, nobody knows. That's why cost averaging works, just buy at different periods and don't worry about the price. If it keeps rising from here, you are covered. If it drops, you get some of your shares at lower prices. Don't burn your wad all at once unless it's a no-brainer (like I said it was less than a year ago at $175/share). I added to my position at $150/share (and it kept falling).

Sure, maybe if the price takes a big hit for no good reason you can double the size of your normal buy, but don't try to be a here, that's how I missed getting into Amazon before it went 100X. I should have bought the bullet and simply invested at the market price.

Don't get caught up in trying to time the market, just make sure you are buying a great company. And Tesla is a great company with many VERY promising irons in the fire and very seasoned management with a long history of performance.

 

[charliemagpie]

Mr. Trump has definitely influenced the stock price.

Shareholder since 2018 when Tesla was 3-months away from declaring bankruptcy.

Congratulations. I have a similar story.

I had avoided bankruptcy but had very little. In 2017 a heart attack/triple bypass followed. Not a good time.

Then infection and Terrible vertigo and off work for a year. Internet was my friend. I realised a new Google was coming, and 'No', Tesla isn't going bankrupt by 'February'. The Media lies.

In 2018, "Honey can I buy $10,000 of Tesla shares?", 'Yes' she said. (that's all we had)

I bought 39 times since then. Wasted not a cent. Even borrowed $50,000 unsecured at 11%.

In 3 weeks, moving country and off into retirement, a millionaire.

Tx Elon. Now for my bloody Cybertruck !!!!!

 

[HaulingAss]

Congratulations. I have a similar story.

I had avoided bankruptcy but had very little. In 2017 a heart attack/triple bypass followed. Not a good time.

Then infection and Terrible vertigo and off work for a year. Internet was my friend. I realised a new Google was coming, and 'No', Tesla isn't going bankrupt by 'February'. The Media lies.

In 2018, "Honey can I buy $10,000 of Tesla shares?", 'Yes' she said. (that's all we had)

I bought 39 times since then. Wasted not a cent. Even borrowed $50,000 unsecured at 11%.

In 3 weeks, moving country and off into retirement, a millionaire.

Tx Elon. Now for my bloody Cybertruck !!!!!

What country are you moving to? I imagine Cybertrucks are not available there yet?

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