EV truck reservation poll

[rr6013]

I have CT reservation(s) as well as R1S. What I really want is a large SUV, and if there were a CyberSUV I'd be all over that. I can make the CT work, but R1S is the form factor I'm after. After R1T went into production, I recently made an R1S reso, so I'm assuming I'll get the CT first.

Telling is that Dyson genius could not make the numbers pencil on just a crossover SUV design. Doesn’t bode well for a CyberSUV. I’d be thrilled with a 2door CT SUV with barn doors. But that’s a vanity project in a world that buys 4 doors.

So likely CTvan before SUV.

 

[Ogre]

Telling is that Dyson genius could not make the numbers pencil on just a crossover SUV design. Doesn’t bode well for a CyberSUV. I’d be thrilled with a 2door CT SUV with barn doors. But that’s a vanity project in a world that buys 4 doors.

So likely CTvan before SUV.

There is no substitute for knowledge acquired in the field.

Tesla has been attacking this problem and dealing with the issues that crop up for 15 years. Not just “Penciling” it in, actually encountering the problems and coming up with solutions.

This also applies to Ford/ GM/ Stellantis/ VW. They are experts at ICE drivetrains and manufacturing. Not quite experts with EVs. In 5 years or so once they’ve hit many of the same walls Tesla has, they’ll be a lot better.

 

[Sirfun]

Some executive said Rivian and Tesla are going to take our lunch money if we don’t do something now as a stop gap measure to show we are still in the game until we can make a real EV.

I agree! The Ford folks are looking at brand loyalty as the most important part of the puzzle to getting through the transition to EV's. It's a tight-rope that they have to navigate. They know that it will be damn near impossible to get people who have driven Tesla's to buy a Ford. But they are hoping to transition their current customers to Ford EVs because they will enjoy the Ford EV over current Ford ICE.
One other major consideration is that all these OEMs have seen crazy stuff going on with stock investment in EV tech, and most of these moves they are making have way more to do with stock than anything. It's all about perception at this time. They are trying to create the perception of them being a player in the EV transition. I personally don't think their heart is into it.

 

[Diehard]

I personally don't think their heart is into it.

It certainly looks that way. Small new business has to run on heart fuel. Big business runs on numbers with a math that is changing slowly. Taking big risks fast for companies that big is easier said than done. Making new factories, retooling old ones, and replacing people with pension plans all takes money that is coming from selling ICE. It is a catch 22 and a tight rope they have to walk.

 

[Ogre]

There is a great interview with JB Straubel where he talks about how difficult this transition is going to be. ”It’s like a giant overbooked flight, everyone wants to convert to EVs at the same time”.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/...ttlenecks-in-transition-to-electric-cars.html

The JB Straubel piece starts around the 10m mark, lots of Tesla history in there. It’s about 45+ minutes in before it starts to get more future looking and interesting.

His main point is that most of these manufacturers talk about making battery factories but haven’t figured out that they are going to secure the raw materials to supply the factory. Without adequate Lithium supplies, Blue Oval city is a giant money pit with no purpose.

In an ideal market, there would be massive supplies of lithium, but we’ve previously only needed a fraction of what we need now. Nickel is likewise going to become more and more scarce.

 

[Diehard]

everyone wants to convert to EVs at the same time”.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/...ttlenecks-in-transition-to-electric-cars.html

The JB Straubel piece starts around the 10m mark, lots of Tesla history in there. It’s about 45+ minutes in before it starts to get more future looking and interesting.

His main point is that most of these manufacturers talk about making battery factories but haven’t figured out that they are going to secure the raw materials to supply the factory. Without adequate Lithium supplies, Blue Oval city is a giant money pit with no purpose.

In an ideal market, there would be massive supplies of lithium, but we’ve previously only needed a fraction of what we need now. Nickel is likewise going to become more and more scarce.

‘Thanks for sharing. listened to bits of it.

He was saying some of these mines take 8 years from exploration to production. Makes me think price increases may last long after my CT number comes up.

“Battery degradation is not linear“. I always thought if I store and run my battery around 50% for much of it’s life and keep it cool, I could make it last longer than I do. But it looks like there is a random element failure that does not care what I do and I may have to replace the battery after warrantee regardless of how much I baby it.

 

[Crissa]

This is why we have to create government intervention. The whole point of the government is to do big things we can't won't or shouldn't do on our own. To make and secure general welfare and safeguard markets from those who would turn them into their fiefdoms.

And yeah, so that means paying off some locals so we can have lithium sources, and making sure we don't poison ourselves while doing it. (And apparently let's not do it by denying that natives were slaughtered on that land? C'mon, feds, it's literally the least you can do.)

At least the Blue Oval is looking at supplies to feed the SKI factories which feed into the Ford ones. GM seems to be handwaving it.

-Crissa

 

[TomGriff]

charging network was one of my bullets for Tesla. Pro range is only 230 miles. Home charging only for me. I am on a Maine trip right now. We have driven 1500 miles so far and total charge time for our outback was probably around 10 minutes. I expect to take the Subaru on all similar trips for the next 10 years. Anything that will have charging at destination or I can do round trip (+90% of our driving) will be Lightening. I expect all sorts of problems with Ford but charging should not be one of them.

Supercharging network is easier without a doubt, but unlike many Tesla owners I have actually used other charging networks (with Chevy Bolt) and I have never had the problems that are shown in the video. When buying my next EV, charging network will be a tiny factor in my decision. EA has always been reliable for me and the one time I had to call customer service, the problem was quickly resolved. Even at superchargers, I probably have to switch stations 1 in 8 times because it isn't working or charge speed is restricted for some unknown reason (not due to sharing with other cars). That is about the same as I've experienced at EA. Other manufacturers are catching up and in my area EA chargers are located where they need to be for trips along the interstate, in fact better if you want to go down the Oregon Coast. I've seen some reviews that show that Mach-E plug and play charging is now working reliably, so very likely Lightning will have reliable plug and play with EA when released.

 

[Ogre]

Supercharging network is easier without a doubt, but unlike many Tesla owners I have actually used other charging networks (with Chevy Bolt) and I have never had the problems that are shown in the video.

I used to make mountain bike films and we would always edit out everything but the technical bits and crashes. One time my brother commented about the fact that we edited out the flat stretches and my response was that people only care about the interesting parts.

That video is obviously edited to select the interesting parts, any other charging stations where they had no issues were not shown.

Also, underused equipment tends to be the least maintained. As usage increases, maintenance will catch up.

 

[Crissa]

Also, underused equipment tends to be the least maintained. As usage increases, maintenance will catch up.

Or it'll be taken off the maps...

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Or it'll be taken off the maps...

-Crissa

There is a bit of a mixed incentive here.

Ford and the other automakers want to claim their network has xx,xxx charging station. If they removed the broken ones and the slow speed chargers, that number is a much much lower.

 

[Diehard]

There is a bit of a mixed incentive here.

Ford and the other automakers want to claim their network has xx,xxx charging station. If they removed the broken ones and the slow speed chargers, that number is a much much lower.

I doubt that is their main concern. They know they can’t win the EV fight by just making good cars which is a challenge by itself. No one wants to be stranded because they chose a Ford and that is what many fear. Ford knows that:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/13...gels-electric-vehicle-stations-mustang-mach-e

 

[Crissa]

There is a bit of a mixed incentive here.

Ford and the other automakers want to claim their network has xx,xxx charging station. If they removed the broken ones and the slow speed chargers, that number is a much much lower.

Yeah, but they'll get crappy ratings if they keep routing people to broken or slow chargers and no one will want to use/buy their offering.

But I meant that people will report them. To their owners, to their leasors, to their mapping system, to plugshare, to their ity councils, to their politicians, to the news.

Get enough people mad and it doesn't matter how oblivious the charging maintenance or automaker wants to be, they will be sidelined.

-Crissa

 

[Zabhawkin]

Yeah, but they'll get crappy ratings if they keep routing people to broken or slow chargers and no one will want to use/buy their offering.

But I meant that people will report them. To their owners, to their leasors, to their mapping system, to plugshare, to their ity councils, to their politicians, to the news.

Get enough people mad and it doesn't matter how oblivious the charging maintenance or automaker wants to be, they will be sidelined.

-Crissa

This right here is the main reason I am choosing Tesla for our first electric over any of the other options. I like what Ford has to offer, but charging on a trip will be significantly more of an issue.

 

[Csven298]

which EV trucks do you have reserved? If they were all available at the same time, which one would you choose and why? leaving hummer and the other oddballs out of it.

Tesla dual motor- Ford