Cybertruck with or without 4680 Batteries?

[Crissa]

Unlike cheese where it rotates position on a shelf, 4680’s demand BMS (battery management system) to preserve SoC.

It's alot like cheese, to be honest, it requires a very specific environment to be preserved. And you need to preserve first-in first-out aging lest your cells deteriorate in the background. The shelf life of a 4680 should be alot longer than most cheeses, though.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

Why care? It’s a truck. It’s gonna work. It was designed for that. Bleeding edge early adopters understand they are Beta testers in exchange for being first. Minimize failure if reliability is paramount. That’s 2170.

Battery chemistry, technology and charging improvements are making decadal strides yearly. Performance? Sell the 2170’s and upgrade later rather than buy-in to 2019 technology now just coming to market. 4680 hasn’t really been road tested, shakedown cruised and subjected to the real world yet.

I dont think Tesla will use 2170s then upgrade for free to 4680s.....I would not be pleased to get 2170 CT then 2 months later 4680s are being shipped

 

[happy intruder]

Tesla has specifically avoided making the Cybertruck until they had spare 4680s, tho.

-Crissa

they have specifically avoided making the CT because there is no giga press, unlike current 4680s that are being used in cars now

 

[charliemagpie]

Which Bunny?

 

[Ogre]

As of the earnings call, Tesla’s 4680 production is around 4GWH/ year and accelerating fast. That is capacity for about 20,000 Cybertrucks with 200 kWh packs per year (or 33k with a ~120 kWh pack). That is more than enough to start production. Assuming 4680 ramp continues to accelerate, they should have plenty of capacity for 2023.

They are sharing that capacity with Model Ys, but I suspect Cybertruck production will take precedence since the Model Y can fall back to 2170s.

 

[Ogre]

they have specifically avoided making the CT because there is no giga press, unlike current 4680s that are being used in cars now

Weirdly, Tesla has never added the new 4680 Model Y to the menu. They were offering them to customers to accelerate deliveries, but they seem to have stopped offering them to customers entirely now.

They are clearly making them, just not clear where they are going. Considering they are making enough cells to produce 1000 Model Ys a week, where are they going?

 

[Crissa]

Weirdly, Tesla has never added the new 4680 Model Y to the menu. They were offering them to customers to accelerate deliveries, but they seem to have stopped offering them to customers entirely now.

They are clearly making them, just not clear where they are going. Considering they are making enough cells to produce 1000 Model Ys a week, where are they going?

Corporate customers? The rental fleets are paying full price for Teslas. Well, for anything good roght now. They're not buying the frilly cars, tho.

My friend is in the queue for another Bronco after his first got bricked and now he's being offered $10k to give his truck to Hertz or something and get back in line...

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

Weirdly, Tesla has never added the new 4680 Model Y to the menu. They were offering them to customers to accelerate deliveries, but they seem to have stopped offering them to customers entirely now.

They are clearly making them, just not clear where they are going. Considering they are making enough cells to produce 1000 Model Ys a week, where are they going?

to men in the moon or mars

 

[Ogre]

Corporate customers? The rental fleets are paying full price for Teslas. Well, for anything good roght now. They're not buying the frilly cars, tho.

My friend is in the queue for another Bronco after his first got bricked and now he's being offered $10k to give his truck to Hertz or something and get back in line...

-Crissa

Could be. Just seems weird that they started offering them and then stopped even though production is higher. Maybe stockpiling for Cybertruck or when they launch the Model Y 4680 on the site.

 

[Crissa]

Could be. Just seems weird that they started offering them and then stopped even though production is higher. Maybe stockpiling for Cybertruck or when they launch the Model Y 4680 on the site.

We also see the Y castings being used up so...

?‍

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

We also see the Y castings being used up so...

?‍

-Crissa

We know they are producing 2170 Model Ys out of Texas. There are lots of those in the wild so no great mystery there.

The idea that you suggested above that they are sending them to Hertz or some other corporation as fleet vehicles is quite intriguing honestly.

 

[TyPope]

Most likely, Tesla started production of the 4680s in Texas and put some in Model Ys for proof of concept. Maybe some of those went to customers. Maybe a lot of them went to customers. Fast forward to today and Tesla wants to squirt out a bunch of Semis as soon as they can now that the design is finalized. Trouble is, they use a LOT of 4680s in each one. So, Tesla prioritizes the Semi which now has monopolized 4680 production. At the moment, the Semi is the only vehicle that needs the 4680 cells as the others (most of the others) can be made with the 2170s.

Now, Tesla is bringing in battery expertise and equipment from Germany, and prioritizing Texas production of 4680s in order to take advantage of tax breaks, begin cutting into the Semi backlog, and prepare for the Cybertruck.

That's my 2c.

 

[Ogre]

Most likely, Tesla started production of the 4680s in Texas and put some in Model Ys for proof of concept. Maybe some of those went to customers. Maybe a lot of them went to customers. Fast forward to today and Tesla wants to squirt out a bunch of Semis as soon as they can now that the design is finalized. Trouble is, they use a LOT of 4680s in each one. So, Tesla prioritizes the Semi which now has monopolized 4680 production. At the moment, the Semi is the only vehicle that needs the 4680 cells as the others (most of the others) can be made with the 2170s.

Now, Tesla is bringing in battery expertise and equipment from Germany, and prioritizing Texas production of 4680s in order to take advantage of tax breaks, begin cutting into the Semi backlog, and prepare for the Cybertruck.

That's my 2c.

Good theory. But the semi is using 2170 cells for now.

 

[firsttruck]

Most likely, Tesla started production of the 4680s in Texas and put some in Model Ys for proof of concept. Maybe some of those went to customers. Maybe a lot of them went to customers. Fast forward to today and Tesla wants to squirt out a bunch of Semis as soon as they can now that the design is finalized. Trouble is, they use a LOT of 4680s in each one. So, Tesla prioritizes the Semi which now has monopolized 4680 production. At the moment, the Semi is the only vehicle that needs the 4680 cells as the others (most of the others) can be made with the 2170s.

Now, Tesla is bringing in battery expertise and equipment from Germany, and prioritizing Texas production of 4680s in order to take advantage of tax breaks, begin cutting into the Semi backlog, and prepare for the Cybertruck.

That's my 2c.

Recently Elon said Semis shipping would NOT be using 4680s.

I don't think Elon said which cell was being used but many are guessing 2170s.


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Elon Musk: Tesla Semi Production Target Is 50,000 Units In 2024
Production has already started and it will take about a year to ramp up.
Oct 20, 2022
By: Mark Kane
https://insideevs.com/news/617631/tesla-semi-production-target-50000-2024/

.....
According to Musk, some 50,000 units will be produced annually in 2024, at least that's the target for 2024 in North America.

.....
At least the initial builds do not involve the 4680-type cylindrical battery cells, according to Elon Musk (noted by Teslarati), so those must be 2170-type (probably from Gigafactory Nevada).

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[TyPope]

Recently Elon said Semis shipping would NOT be using 4680s.

I don't think Elon said which cell was being used but many are guessing 2170s.


--------------------------------------------------

Elon Musk: Tesla Semi Production Target Is 50,000 Units In 2024
Production has already started and it will take about a year to ramp up.
Oct 20, 2022
By: Mark Kane
https://insideevs.com/news/617631/tesla-semi-production-target-50000-2024/

.....
According to Musk, some 50,000 units will be produced annually in 2024, at least that's the target for 2024 in North America.

.....
At least the initial builds do not involve the 4680-type cylindrical battery cells, according to Elon Musk (noted by Teslarati), so those must be 2170-type (probably from Gigafactory Nevada).

--------------------------------------------------

You guys are right. I remember Elon saying that though I thought the intent was to move all vehicles to 4680s eventually. I suppose I mis-remembered that. Thanks for the correction.