Tesla Q4 2025 production & delivery numbers

[YDR37]

Tesla has released production and delivery numbers for 4Q 2025, and for the 2025 calendar year.

In most years, Tesla sales are highest in 4Q. But in 2025, Tesla had record deliveries (497,099) in 3Q, driven largely by the expiration of the federal tax credit in the US, which is Tesla’s second-largest market. A lot of demand got pulled forward into 3Q, so 4Q deliveries were lower (418,227). Most other EV manufacturers are also expected to have lower sales in 4Q, for the same reason.

For the full year of 2025, Tesla delivered about 1.64 million vehicles, down from about 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.81 million in 2023. Tesla has indicated that the company is between two “growth waves”: EV sales are becoming less important as the company refocuses on AI and robotics.

Tesla also announced that quarterly financial results will be reported on January 28, so expect further details then.

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[SCTesla]

Around 4,300 CTs in Q4, 3,700 in the US and that's with the big SpaceX, Boring, X.ai purchase which is rumored to be over 1,000 trucks.

20,865 CTs sold in 2025 per Troy.

 

[YDR37]

Around 4,300 CTs in Q4, 3,700 in the US and that's with the big SpaceX, Boring, X.ai purchase which is rumored to be over 1,000 trucks.

The 4Q numbers could also be inflated by CTs that were purchased in 3Q while the tax credit was still in effect, but not delivered until 4Q. Tesla technically counts deliveries, not sales, so in that situation, the delivery would be credited to 4Q.

Next question is 1Q 2026. That number might not be pretty: typically 1Q is the worst quarter for vehicle sales, and it doesn't seem like there is much happening that could boost them. Maybe the first CT deliveries to the Middle East, but that's not a huge market.

20,865 CTs sold in 2025 per Troy.

Tesla doesn't provide the numbers for CTs specifically. Tesla reported 50,850 deliveries of "Other Models" in 2025; this category includes the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. The CT is thought to be nearly half of those sales, so 20,000-25,000 seems reasonable. The vast majority of CT sales are in the US, and we should get an estimate from Cox for those sales later this month.

2025 CT sales will be down by around half from 40,000-50,000 in 2024. If anything, CT sales could fall further in 2026, given the loss of the $7,500 tax credit that was available during most of 2025.

 

[Outdoors]

A Cybertruck is born every 27 minutes. Not so great.

 

[YDR37]

Telsa's reported production numbers for "Other Models":

3Q 2024: 26,128
4Q 2024: 22,727
1Q 2025: 17,161
2Q 2025: 13,409
3Q 2025: 11,624
4Q 2025: 11,706

Production of S/X/CT declined steadily for several quarters, but now seems to have bottomed out. So Tesla may feel that the demand for the "expensive models" has finally stabilized, although at a relatively low level.

 

[Setok]

Also BYD has surpassed Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer. With sales down and no real commitment to develop their core products, and a polarising CEO, I’m not so positive about their future right now. They are striving for AI and robot moonshots, but I’m not optimistic about Tesla even really being one of the winners in what is going to be a brutal killing of AI firms. And any major financial impact is still some way away.

Hell, I’m not even that keen on the Cybercab. Doesn’t have me itching for one. Meanwhile other companies have come out with very interesting products in the small car and van sectors where Tesla has nothing to offer.

It’s like Tesla has just decided to give up on the market which made the company and while disrupting yourself can be great, they also don’t have anything tangible in the immediate pipeline.

 

[YDR37]

Meanwhile other companies have come out with very interesting products in the small car and van sectors where Tesla has nothing to offer.

Let's not forget the EV pickup sector. By 2027, we should see some interesting new developments in EV pickups. Like full-sized EREV trucks from Scout, Ram, and/or Ford. And smaller, inexpensive BEV trucks from Slate, Ford, and/or Kia. But there are no signs that Tesla plans to offer anything other than the existing Cybertruck.

They are striving for AI and robot moonshots, but ... any major financial impact is still some way away ... It’s like Tesla has just decided to give up on the market which made the company and while disrupting yourself can be great, they also don’t have anything tangible in the immediate pipeline.

Elon warned in July 2025 that Tesla would be entering a "weird transition period", and could have "a few rough quarters" as EV revenue declines and AI/robotics revenue ramps up.

4Q 2025 was probably the first of those "rough quarters". We'll have to wait until January 28, when the 4Q 2025 financial results will be released, to see how rough it was.

 

[SCTesla]

Let's not forget the EV pickup sector. By 2027, we should see some interesting new developments in EV pickups. Like full-sized EREV trucks from Scout, Ram, and/or Ford. And smaller, inexpensive BEV trucks from Slate, Ford, and/or Kia. But there are no signs that Tesla plans to offer anything other than the existing Cybertruck.


Elon warned in July 2025 that Tesla would be entering a "weird transition period", and could have "a few rough quarters" as EV revenue declines and AI/robotics revenue ramps up.

4Q 2025 was probably the first of those "rough quarters". We'll have to wait until January 28, when the 4Q 2025 financial results will be released, to see how rough it was.

With only 30 RTs and all of them still using a safety driver and reports of only 5-6 on the road at one time...I think the AI boom is a few years away as well.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

With only 30 RTs and all of them still using a safety driver and reports of only 5-6 on the road at one time...I think the AI boom is a few years away as well.

Once they have a driverless fleet deployed during the middle of winter in a city which receives heavy snowfall, I'll know they nailed FSD. Until that metric is passed, it is still a beta product. A very impressive beta, but also one that is hard to defend against the massive public scrutiny.

If Tesla has an a-ha! moment like that with AI, much like its other a-ha! moment with Model 3, it will likely make shareholders incredibly rich. The problem is they may fail or someone may beat them to the punch. If Amazon (just throwing a name out there for illustration) started selling a $20k functional robot to use around the house before Optimus is ready, what does Tesla bring to the table?

At this point it is all about who delivers this technology first. Tesla has as good of a shot as any of its nearest competitors, but it equally has as much of a shot to fail versus them. It's going to be a very interesting end to this decade, by that point the winner will start to be clear.

Tesla also needs to continue to be profitable with vehicles to fund its new ventures. It can't quite give up on auto yet, there is a real chance declining auto sales could impact the company becoming the AI winner.

 

[Setok]

Let's not forget the EV pickup sector. By 2027, we should see some interesting new developments in EV pickups. Like full-sized EREV trucks from Scout, Ram, and/or Ford. And smaller, inexpensive BEV trucks from Slate, Ford, and/or Kia. But there are no signs that Tesla plans to offer anything other than the existing Cybertruck.


Elon warned in July 2025 that Tesla would be entering a "weird transition period", and could have "a few rough quarters" as EV revenue declines and AI/robotics revenue ramps up.

4Q 2025 was probably the first of those "rough quarters". We'll have to wait until January 28, when the 4Q 2025 financial results will be released, to see how rough it was.

Thing is, I don’t believe AI or robotics will be generating financial results to compensate for dumping the car space, at least in anything close to ‘a few quarters’. More like some years. Even then I’m not convinced Tesla is necessarily the company best placed to benefit from that. If and when it happens. And there are going to be some heavy and large losers there.

 

[SCTesla]

Once they have a driverless fleet deployed during the middle of winter in a city which receives heavy snowfall, I'll know they nailed FSD. Until that metric is passed, it is still a beta product. A very impressive beta, but also one that is hard to defend against the massive public scrutiny.

If Tesla has an a-ha! moment like that with AI, much like its other a-ha! moment with Model 3, it will likely make shareholders incredibly rich. The problem is they may fail or someone may beat them to the punch. If Amazon (just throwing a name out there for illustration) started selling a $20k functional robot to use around the house before Optimus is ready, what does Tesla bring to the table?

At this point it is all about who delivers this technology first. Tesla has as good of a shot as any of its nearest competitors, but it equally has as much of a shot to fail versus them. It's going to be a very interesting end to this decade, by that point the winner will start to be clear.

Tesla also needs to continue to be profitable with vehicles to fund its new ventures. It can't quite give up on auto yet, there is a real chance declining auto sales could impact the company becoming the AI winner.

FSD, RT, and Robots are very much baked into the current stock price. That's why the stock doesn't tumble with Tesla declining 3 years in a row, while EVs are up during the same period.

I think Tesla is 1 or 2 years out on "making a ton of money" off RTs and longer on Robots.

Hopefully Elon changes his mind and decides to release the MY XL platform in the US and potentially other new vehicles. I doubt it.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

FSD, RT, and Robots are very much baked into the current stock price. That's why the stock doesn't tumble with Tesla declining 3 years in a row, while EVs are up during the same period.

I think Tesla is 1 or 2 years out on "making a ton of money" off RTs and longer on Robots.

Hopefully Elon changes his mind and decides to release the MY XL platform in the US and potentially other new vehicles. I doubt it.

I love what Tesla has accomplished, I'm a returning customer for a reason. But it would be naive to think the past success in auto guarantees Tesla will win in their new ventures. As likely RT will replace Uber in a few years, it is equally likely to be a failed program that never gets the drivers out of the supervised seats.

I hope they do succeed, I want an Optimus. But I also won't hold off buying "other consumer robot X" if Optimus isn't out first. I bought a Lightning because Cybertruck wasn't ready yet, my dollars always support early innovators.

 

[YDR37]

Tesla also needs to continue to be profitable with vehicles to fund its new ventures. It can't quite give up on auto yet, there is a real chance declining auto sales could impact the company becoming the AI winner.

Tesla's global vehicle sales peaked in 2023. For 2025, they were about 9.5% down from the peak.

A drop of 9.5% doesn't sound so bad. The problem is that the drops are significantly worse in Tesla's most profitable markets -- down by around 15% in the US/Canada, and down by around 35% in Europe.

Telsa sales are holding up best in China, which recently surpassed the US/Canada as Tesla's top market. But China is not a very profitable market, compared to North America or Europe. First, Tesla faces much tougher competition from other EV manufacturers in China, so margins are slim. Second, Chinese car buyers are more likely to purchase at the low end: RWD Model 3s and RWD Model Ys.

So the problem is not just declining EV sales since the peak in 2023. On average, Tesla is now making less profit on each EV sale than in 2023.

 

[Cayden Thompson]

I've said it many times, if the CT was more affordable they would have another unit delivered in the "Other Models" Category...

 

[tingmo13]

here come the Wolf, Wolf & Wolves!

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