F150 Powerboost Hybrid

[Pappy]

Wife just forwarded an article claiming 1 in 5 EV owners switched back to ICE in California, claiming charging is a hassle. It’s not going to be an issue for this old timer but I can see problems in the future. The infrastructure today for EV population is not there yet. Even if it was, imagine setting in line to wait 45 minutes for the guy in front of you to charge his EV. I see plenty of fights at the pump, kinda of reminds me of the good old days where we had this gas shortage thing going on.
Can’t imagine what Big City life, or those living in apartment buildings gonna be like? What motels/hotels gonna do, chargers at every parking spot? Who gonna pay for that? ICE vehicles ain’t going anywhere for awhile, those that think we’re gonna save the planet by switching over to EV are just kidding themselves, a good balance yea, total EV’s IMO...never in a chance in hell. Hybrids??? Fords F150 Hybrid, first in the truck market, can only be improved upon.

 

[FullyGrounded]

Sounds like Ford may be on the losing end with it's slow to respond to competition tactics. peace

 

[Crissa]

Can’t imagine what Big City life, or those living in apartment buildings gonna be like? What motels/hotels gonna do, chargers at every parking spot? Who gonna pay for that?

Yes. Building owners. It's not that big of a deal, they already have lights wired out there. When you're sitting for a long time, the power level needed to recharge is much lower.

-Crissa

 

[Pappy]

Yes. Building owners. It's not that big of a deal, they already have lights wired out there. When you're sitting for a long time, the power level needed to recharge is much lower.

-Crissa

“It’s not that big a deal, they already lights wired out there”, had to think about that one a bit,?, granted I’m not an electrical engineer but.... I’m pretty certain, breaker sizes, cable sizes would not be adequate, for the demand that would be placed on a lighting circuit any motel might have when they start plugging in EV’s.

 

[Crissa]

“It’s not that big a deal, they already lights wired out there”, had to think about that one a bit,?, granted I’m not an electrical engineer but.... I’m pretty certain, breaker sizes, cable sizes would not be adequate, for the demand that would be placed on a lighting circuit any motel might have when they start plugging in EV’s.

Most exterior lighting is overbuilt because it was designed for giant mercury lamps or even fluorescent ballasts that was thousands of watts. Now we use LEDs that about a tenth the energy.

For every old-style lamp pole you could put in at least one L1 charger, but probably more.

Same is true for much heating and cooling, modern systems are more efficient, leaving circuits no longer overloaded.

During the day, motels need their appliances and vacuums running, but at night they do not. So overall, their service panel is unlikely to need to be upgraded.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

Wife just forwarded an article claiming 1 in 5 EV owners switched back to ICE in California, claiming charging is a hassle. It’s not going to be an issue for this old timer but I can see problems in the future. The infrastructure today for EV population is not there yet. Even if it was, imagine setting in line to wait 45 minutes for the guy in front of you to charge his EV. I see plenty of fights at the pump, kinda of reminds me of the good old days where we had this gas shortage thing going on.
Can’t imagine what Big City life, or those living in apartment buildings gonna be like? What motels/hotels gonna do, chargers at every parking spot? Who gonna pay for that? ICE vehicles ain’t going anywhere for awhile, those that think we’re gonna save the planet by switching over to EV are just kidding themselves, a good balance yea, total EV’s IMO...never in a chance in hell. Hybrids??? Fords F150 Hybrid, first in the truck market, can only be improved upon.

Pappy, don't be gulible - that is a very misleading article. It's based on a study of car purchases going back to 2012 and it is comprised of 68% leased cars, most of them plug-in hybrids. The median EPA electric range of all cars included in the survey was a measly 84 miles!

This study has about as much to do with modern, longer-range BEV's as soyburgers have to do with beef hamburgers. Once someone experiences a real longer range BEV, it's very difficult for them to go back to old, outdated ICE cars.

Plug-in hybrids were very popular in California due to government incentives and good pricing by automakers since it allowed them to sell more profitable gas-guzzling vehicles. Tesla is grossly under represented in this study because of all the hybrids and also the time period the study covers (Tesla hardly made any cars at all before the Model 3 came out in 2018 (conveniently, the cutoff for this study).

I wouldn't put up with a car with less than 84 EPA miles range either! And that's the EPA range when the battery is brand new. Non-Tesla EV's were famous for battery degradation. What's amazing, is even when you include thousands of plug-in hybrids (some with ranges as low as 10-11 miles), 4 out of 5 people replaced their car with an electric car when they sold it! Yet the media uses this to create doubts in peoples minds.

The problem here is the media likes to twist and distort studies like this to create headlines that make people question whether they want to go electric. That's what FUD is (fear, uncertainty, doubt). Are you unaware of what the media does? Why do you re-post it here? Because you believe the story they are pushing?

 

[HaulingAss]

Fords F150 Hybrid, first in the truck market, can only be improved upon.

That's for sure!

Cybertruck is going to make hybrids look like relics from the past! Overly complex, inefficient, expensive to operate and work on and, when you need power to tow up a hill, they whine and scream like you're gonna break 'em.

 

[firsttruck]

Wife just forwarded an article claiming 1 in 5 EV owners switched back to ICE in California, claiming charging is a hassle.

Here is the article:
Understanding discontinuance among California’s electric vehicle owners
Published: 26 April 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00814-9


That report was just published in April 2021 but the data was collected for ownership long ago (before 2017).

Because the changes have been so rapid in the last 4 years the report is almost worthless and is misleading about what current new BEV owners experience or should expect.

Almost everything has significantly improved since 2016. Some things are 2-3 times better ( vehicle base range, faster public chargers) since 2016 and others are 10 times better (more public charging stations) since 2012/2013.


1. Minimum and average driving range.

There were no Tesla Model 3s in the study.

Before 2017 the most common fairly affordable BEVs in California were Mitsubishi iMev (60mi), Fiat 500e (85mi), 2011-2016 24KWH Nissan Leaf (85mi), Chevy Spark (82mi), Ford Fusion (76mi), Smartcar (68mi).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batte...:BEV_EPA_range_comparison_2016-2017_MY_US.png

Today just on the low end you have VW eGolf (120mi), Hydundia Inoniq (170 mi), 2018-220 40KWH and 62KWH Nissan Leaf (151mi/225mi), KIA Soul/Niro (243mi), Hyundai Kona (258mi), Chevrolet Bolt (259mi), Tesla Model 3 Standard (240mi).

Today, the most common driving range of an electric car is 175 to 320 miles and can be up to 400 miles as is the case with some Tesla Model S.

Next year ( 2022, one single year) in California there might be more Teslas sold ( 2022, one single year) than the total of all BEVs that existed in California all years 2011-2017.
That does not even count the mass production of other models from Hyundai, KIA, Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW ID.4.



2. The number of public charging stations has increased by more than a factor of 10 since the year 2011.

EV Charging Stations Statistics 2011-2020
https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/

Tesla Global Supercharger Count - Change over time ( by year)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger#Change_over_time

EV Charging Stations Continued Strong Growth in Early 2020, NREL Report Shows
Nov. 10, 2020
https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2...g-growth-in-early-2020-nrel-report-shows.html

 

[HaulingAss]

Here is the article:
Understanding discontinuance among California’s electric vehicle owners
Published: 26 April 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00814-9


That report was just published in April 2021 but the data was collected for ownership long ago (before 2017).

Because the changes have been so rapid in the last 4 years the report is almost worthless and is misleading about what current new BEV owners experience or should expect.

Almost everything has significantly improved since 2016. Some things are 2-3 times better ( vehicle base range, faster public chargers) since 2016 and others are 10 times better (more public charging stations) since 2012/2013.


1. Minimum and average driving range.

There were no Tesla Model 3s in the study.

Before 2017 the most common fairly affordable BEVs in California were Mitsubishi iMev (60mi), Fiat 500e (85mi), 2011-2016 24KWH Nissan Leaf (85mi), Chevy Spark (82mi), Ford Fusion (76mi), Smartcar (68mi).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batte...:BEV_EPA_range_comparison_2016-2017_MY_US.png

Today just on the low end you have VW eGolf (120mi), Hydundia Inoniq (170 mi), 2018-220 40KWH and 62KWH Nissan Leaf (151mi/225mi), KIA Soul/Niro (243mi), Hyundai Kona (258mi), Chevrolet Bolt (259mi), Tesla Model 3 Standard (240mi).

Today, the most common driving range of an electric car is 175 to 320 miles and can be up to 400 miles as is the case with some Tesla Model S.

Next year ( 2022, one single year) in California there might be more Teslas sold ( 2022, one single year) than the total of all BEVs that existed in California all years 2011-2017.
That does not even count the mass production of other models from Hyundai, KIA, Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW ID.4.



2. The number of public charging stations has increased by more than a factor of 10 since the year 2011.

EV Charging Stations Statistics 2011-2020
https://evadoption.com/ev-charging-stations-statistics/

Tesla Global Supercharger Count - Change over time ( by year)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Supercharger#Change_over_time

EV Charging Stations Continued Strong Growth in Early 2020, NREL Report Shows
Nov. 10, 2020
https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2...g-growth-in-early-2020-nrel-report-shows.html

Good post! Just one small correction:

Early Model 3's do make up a small percentage of the surveyed owners/leases but it was really rare for one of them to report going back to ICE for their next vehicle.

 

[firsttruck]

Good post! Just one small correction:

Early Model 3's do make up a small percentage of the surveyed owners/leases but it was really rare for one of them to report going back to ICE for their next vehicle.

Thanks for the info about Model 3s.
I only saw list of brands.

Where did you see a list of actual vehicles models?

 

[Crissa]

Model S would be in there, but also a minority. Very few Tesla owners went back, but it would be weird if one didn't. There were limitations back then. There still are.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

Thanks for the info about Model 3s.
I only saw list of brands.

Where did you see a list of actual vehicles models?

In this link:

Understanding discontinuance among California’s electric vehicle owners | Nature Energy

If you scroll down to the heading "Data Repository" there is a link that will take you to three Excel files that were used to compile the study results. It looks like there were over 4300 participants and, if you're a little handy with Excel (I forgot everything I knew), it would be pretty simple to compile results like:

How many Tesla owners traded their Tesla for an ICE car,

What percent of people that had Level 2 charging at home switched back to ICE,

etc. Lot's of data there and the media used it about the only way they could to make EV's look like a choice you might regret.

 

[Pappy]

Range is king, while time and accessibility to fuel up is a secondary but mandatory consideration. I don't own different vehicle for different purposes. I've found it's usually not economical taking into account the purchase cost of an additional vehicle, the maintenance for the additional vehicle and the insurance for the additional vehicle. My truck is my daily commuter, road tripper, camping, hunting vehicle. Range really isn't that important if you're buying an EV just for the daily commute. But if it's your everything vehicle it's very important. The 500 mile range in the tri-motor Cybertruck is basically the minimum EV range I would consider for an everything truck.

Taking that into account, I would not write off the F150 hybrid. I get that it's not a mind blowing improvement over what is currently available and I haven't seen a price yet, but I think it's safe to assume it will be in the $60k neighborhood at the King Ranch level, (which is the lowest trim with the available lay flat seats...which I really really like.) and if you assume the F150 hybrid is as capable as every other 1/2 ton currently available (so it meets your needs...unless you NEED to go 0-60 in 2.9 seconds) and if the Cybertruck cost to insure is basically a wash vs typical ICE truck gas cost, then what is the next criteria to use? 700 miles of range and a 15 minute 100% fill time at readily available fill stations vs 500 miles of range and what...45-60 minute 75% fill time at limited locations (I don't know if that's accurate for the Cybertruck)?

I know the criteria is debatable and what is important to one person, another person may not care about, but to me, these trucks and their price vs convenience, capability and costs is worth discussing. I'm a prior F250 owner and current F150 owner who put down an early deposit on a tri-motor Cybertruck. I'm looking forward to the release of info on the electric F150 and I'll end up with one of these in the next few years. I'll choose the one that meets my needs (4x4 or AWD with at least 500 miles of range and at least a 6.5' bed with at least a extended cab) and makes the best economic sense to me. There are a ton of things I LOVE about the Cybertruck. But the 500 miles of range still gives me a little anxiety when it comes to hunting trips and it would be an annoyance on road trips. I think I can make it work, but more range at the same price would be better. Until then, ICE is still a competitor. Especially when they're going further from full to E for less cost to own up front.

Couldn’t agree more with your post. Running out of gas is one story, no juice in the EV? Well that’s a totally different story. I’m on the list for a dual motor FSD and I can’t wait to see what the Cybertruck has to offer.

 

[Ranulf]

If Alabama wasn't so out of touch with American values there would be a lot more EV's there. It's currently illegal to buy an American-made Tesla in Alabama but it's as easy as apple pie to buy a Kia, Hyundai or even a car made in China. Go figure. Alabama has to be the most backward state in America.

I live in Wisconsin. We are considered one of the most progressive states and a testbed for innovation. Our democrat governor struck down a bill that would have ended the law requiring dealerships in order for a manufacturer to sell cars in the state. Michigan has a similar law, and so does Texas and many others.

I see teslas all the time up here, but the first and only supercharger I have ever seen was in Mobile, Alabama. And there was a model 3 using it.

 

[HaulingAss]

Running out of gas is one story, no juice in the EV? Well that’s a totally different story.

Pappy, you bring up a good point here that I don't see discussed often enough.

When you run out of gas you need to find a place that has both fuel and electricity available (except in the very rare circumstance of gravity feed tanks or hand-crank pumps).

But unless there is a power outage, there is basically electricity everywhere there are buildings. So while an EV does take longer to fuel, in an emergency you can generally do it anywhere people live. Because plenty of people live a long ways from gasoline but almost no one lives a long ways from electricity. And as each year goes by there are more and more EV charging stations and 240V outlets in out-of-the-way places. Gas stations, on the other hand, have been declining for decades.

My ski cabin is one example of many. It is on a dead-end highway going into the North Cascades but the ski area is still another 20 miles deeper into the mountains and the nearest fuel is another 27 miles in the opposite direction. When all I had was a gasoline powered vehicle, I couldn't go skiing every day without periodically having to make a needless trip all the way to the next town JUST to get gas. I can dine-out at 4 different restaurants, shop for outdoor gear, clothing, fishing tackle, get food, beer, groceries, ice, everything one might need to enjoy the mountains, except for gasoline, without having to drive the wrong direction. Now that I have an electric car I can fill it up at my cabin without having to make a trip just to get more gas. This saves time, money, fuel and wear/tear on the vehicle and tires. There used to be a gas station in town but it closed over 30 years ago. Gas availability in many rural areas is still an inconvenience.

During winter storms, the curvy road can be treacherous so it increases safety to not have to be driving back into the next largest town just to get gas. And they are not building more gas stations. Electricity is more available and growing every year while gasoline availability is slowly shrinking and this shrinking availability of gasoline is forecast to accelerate dramatically in coming years. This is something to consider if your next vehicle purchase is expected to last you for 10 years or longer.

Going forward, electricity is the fuel of the future and it's happening a lot faster than the experts predicted. This is how technological disruption happens, in an "S" curve, and we are entering the steepest portion of that growth curve right now. Globally, EV sales made up almost 5% of the market in 2020 and IHS Markit has forecast that number to jump by 70% for 2021. That means, globally, 8% of new car sales will be electric THIS YEAR!