F150 Lightning Predictions

[Bob Anderson]

What does everyone predict for the Lightning reveal? Here's what I think:

[ ] $55,000/$70,000
[ ] 250 and 350 mile range
[ ] 14,000lb towing
[ ] 2,500lb payload
[ ] 200kW charging
[ ] Dual Motor
[ ] 0-60 4 sec/5 sec
[ ] Bed Charging, no air compressor
[ ] Frunk charging

 

[firsttruck]

[ ] $59,000 with delivery 2024 / $79,000 with delivery 2022
[ ] 250 mile range / 400 mile range
[ ] 12,000lb towing
[ ] 2,000lb payload
[ ] 200kW charging
[ ] Dual Motor
[ ] 0-60 5 sec/ 6 sec
[ ] Bed Charging, no air compressor
[ ] Frunk charging

 

[HaulingAss]

What does everyone predict for the Lightning reveal? Here's what I think:

[ ] $55,000/$70,000
[ ] 250 and 350 mile range
[ ] 14,000lb towing
[ ] 2,500lb payload
[ ] 200kW charging
[ ] Dual Motor
[ ] 0-60 4 sec/5 sec
[ ] Bed Charging, no air compressor
[ ] Frunk charging

A more interesting question is how long will it take Ford to make 1 million of them? I'm guessing 8-9 years. They don't seem too eager to gut sales of their super-profitable gas trucks. They will only sell enough electric ones to allow them to keep selling the polluters. You know, emissions credits.

It doesn't matter what the consumer wants, it's how cheaply can they make it and how much can they sell it for. And the gas wins because truck loans don't calculate the cost of gas over the lifetime of the vehicle (and the consumer doesn't either).

 

[Crissa]

I think it'll have a 250 mile range, a $70+k price (over 100k with options) and basically be a really fast version of their Raptor specs wise.

It'll be heavier than the Cybertruck, go not as far, and cost more.

-Crissa

 

[Bob Anderson]

A more interesting question is how long will it take Ford to make 1 million of them? I'm guessing 8-9 years. They don't seem too eager to gut sales of their super-profitable gas trucks. They will only sell enough electric ones to allow them to keep selling the polluters. You know, emissions credits.

It doesn't matter what the consumer wants, it's how cheaply can they make it and how much can they sell it for. And the gas wins because truck loans don't calculate the cost of gas over the lifetime of the vehicle (and the consumer doesn't either).

If you look at the size of new Rouge factory where it'll be built I'm guessing 50k being built a year.

Every EV truck that is built will sell. Only sales that will be affected will be ICE sales. Like I've said many times, only argument not to get an EV truck at the moment is if you plan on long haul towing. Charging infrastructure isn't quite there with pull through charging. Who wants to unhook there trailer everytime they charge??

 

[Bob Anderson]

I think it'll have a 250 mile range, a $70+k price (over 100k with options) and basically be a really fast version of their Raptor specs wise.

It'll be heavier than the Cybertruck, go not as far, and cost more.

-Crissa

I sure hope it's not another Hummer repeat. It's a tough position to be in. Can't be too good or it'll hurt ice sales, can't be awful or it'll make Ford look behind in EV technology and in turn erode investor confidence. Profit margin probably isn't as good so don't want to sell too many. The whole auto industry transition is going to be fascinating to watch.

 

[Sirfun]

I think they will come out with a very expensive EV only option $80,000-$120,000 fully loaded.
All these Legacy manufacturers are going to talk-up the benefits of PHEV and pump those out like crazy for as long as they can. They'll be selling people on the idea of 600 miles per tankful, not having the inconvenience on road trips and probably using a PHEV for towing with decent mileage. They'll have lots of sales points for PHEV and then they'll say there's not enough batteries for EV trucks and holding back EV's as long as possible.
If they put out a PHEV truck that gets 30 miles on EV then drives hybrid with 25-28 mpg, drives 600 miles on a tankful, with 450 hp. and shows it's reliable. Their loyal fans will love that. And they'll argue it's better than a Cybertruck or pure EV.
Oh one other thing, their dealers will love them too. They still get service contracts and make money on parts and service.

 

[DarinCT]

What is on the hood? I'm suspecting an attempt at hood vents, maybe the look, maybe actually functional. If they are hood vents, then it just seals the deal, Ford loves the past more than the future.

 

[BillyGee]

I sure hope it's not another Hummer repeat. It's a tough position to be in. Can't be too good or it'll hurt ice sales, can't be awful or it'll make Ford look behind in EV technology and in turn erode investor confidence. Profit margin probably isn't as good so don't want to sell too many. The whole auto industry transition is going to be fascinating to watch.

I think you brought up the Ford conundrum exactly and sadly I think that's going to be what we see. A vehicle that's alright for what it is, but costs way too much and has completely in the box thinking.

Here's my prediction list:
- base price in line with top end rivian
- only 2 range options: 250+ and 500+
- more bragging about number of plugs and locations
- an air compressor option
- them bragging a lot about paint options thinking it's a jab at Tesla
- towing being glossed over. maybe them putting up weight numbers or trying their own "tug o war test", definitely showing the train pull footage, but little to no more
- "American Made" being a big deal, even though Tesla and Rivian is too
- "Blue cruise" being pushed hard and claimed to be superior to FSD, despite only working on some roads
- some kind of brag about their charging network at Ford dealerships being supposedly better than Tesla superchargers
- "years of wisdom", "if it ain't broke don't fix it, "effectively innovative", "no change for the sake of change", "name you trust", "Built Ford Tough" and other marketing buzzwords. The whole reveal will be 90% buzzwords targeted at the Cybertruck and Tesla.
- a lot of off road footage, which was lacking at the CT reveal
- probably something stupid about door handles
- and finally, a launch date of 2023. Sooner than the Hummer, but still late to the game

I think my favorite part of this reveal will end up being the CT info dump that comes with the final design reveal, which will get a massive amount of grassroots press. Ford will probably be pushing the F150EV hard through every media outlet they can while having a "leave trucks to the big boys" attitude. Then, when ol Musky just tweets a new CT picture and posts final specs it'll be in 10 times as many places and blow Ford out of the water.

We should make a bingo card for the reveal, can someone get on that?

 

[Bob Anderson]

I think you brought up the Ford conundrum exactly and sadly I think that's going to be what we see. A vehicle that's alright for what it is, but costs way too much and has completely in the box thinking.

Here's my prediction list:
- base price in line with top end rivian
- only 2 range options: 250+ and 500+
- more bragging about number of plugs and locations
- an air compressor option
- them bragging a lot about paint options thinking it's a jab at Tesla
- towing being glossed over. maybe them putting up weight numbers or trying their own "tug o war test", definitely showing the train pull footage, but little to no more
- "American Made" being a big deal, even though Tesla and Rivian is too
- "Blue cruise" being pushed hard and claimed to be superior to FSD, despite only working on some roads
- some kind of brag about their charging network at Ford dealerships being supposedly better than Tesla superchargers
- "years of wisdom", "if it ain't broke don't fix it, "effectively innovative", "no change for the sake of change", "name you trust", "Built Ford Tough" and other marketing buzzwords. The whole reveal will be 90% buzzwords targeted at the Cybertruck and Tesla.
- a lot of off road footage, which was lacking at the CT reveal
- probably something stupid about door handles
- and finally, a launch date of 2023. Sooner than the Hummer, but still late to the game

I think my favorite part of this reveal will end up being the CT info dump that comes with the final design reveal, which will get a massive amount of grassroots press. Ford will probably be pushing the F150EV hard through every media outlet they can while having a "leave trucks to the big boys" attitude. Then, when ol Musky just tweets a new CT picture and posts final specs it'll be in 10 times as many places and blow Ford out of the water.

We should make a bingo card for the reveal, can someone get on that?

Bingo card to include:
-"world's first all electric pickup truck"
-"world's largest public charging network"
-we analyzed over "x" million commercial vehicle millions and determined this small range is good enough
-Ford truck history promo video showing how innovative they are
-pulling train video stunt revisited
-paid special guest speaker
-"best in class" towing
-"and with our over the air updates you'll always have the best at your fingertips"
-slow motion truck driving through mud

 

[DarinCT]

-"world's largest public charging network"

That should be the Free Space.

This is from October 2019, yes 2019.

FORD INTRODUCES NORTH AMERICA’S LARGEST ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING NETWORK, HELPING CUSTOMERS CONFIDENTLY SWITCH TO AN ALL-ELECTRIC LIFESTYLE

On a sidenote, this feels like old ATM days where you had to go to a one that supported that network and then pay a fee for the service. It's electricity, your FordPass is not needed or wanted.

 

[Mini2nut]

It's great to see the Big 3 enter the BEV pickup truck arena. Will it be as refined as a Tesla? My bets say no, just as the Mach-E is a bit rough around the edges.

 

[Crissa]

And it'll be 'best in class' by defining the Cybertruck (and other trucks) out of its class.

-Crissa

 

[SpaceYooper]

I'll say they will have 1 model available to prevent too much decline in ICE sales.

It will be an AWD Crew Cab, but it will be the overall length of the current supercab, due to a shorter front end (frunk)...so about 231.5 inches overall. It's width will be about the same 80".

Ground clearance will be better then the ICE F150 but not as good as the CT...I'll say 12" on stock 32" tires...opposed to the CTs 35s. Same for the approach angle; better then ICE F150 but not as good as the CT...I'll say 30 degrees.

[ ] $68,000
[ ] 500 mile range
[ ] 12,000lb towing
[ ] 2,000lb payload
[ ] Dual Motor
[ ] 0-60 under 5 sec
[ ] V2G, air compressor, bed outlets

So in a more traditional but modified look you get V2G and the same range for just a hair cheaper then the tri-motor CT. But it won't be as quick or fast, nor as much payload or towing capacity, (it will still lose the tug of war) nor will it have as much ground clearance as the CT, the suspension will not be air, nor adjustable, and it will have slightly worse approach angles.

Per previously disclosed patent application it will also have the range extender option available that sits and fits in the location of a traditional truck bed tool box.

 

[Crissa]

Well, so far they've leaked a 300+ range.

That's decent, but I think it hints to the much higher price.

-Crissa