Cybertruck Predictions - Battery Size & Range!

[SentinelOne]

I'm betting on the tri motor which is supposed to be rated 500 mi to at least get 300 mile. Hope I won't LOSE AGAIN. To get 300 miles against any factor thrown your way is comfortable

Have a M3P (300mi rated range). The way I drive it - mostly 85mph freeway I use 50% of my battery (leave at 80-85% charge, get home around 35-40%) on a 100 mi round trip to / from work in Denver...so 200 mi car (max) on long distance trips with 75+mph freeways. Also have a CT Tri reservation..I think 300mi useful range is probable for most worst case scenarios excluding towing.

 

[swengl]

Do we know if Tesla currently "limiting" the total utilization of the 4680 packs as they dial in efficiencies and develop a deeper knowledge of the chemistry/geometry pairing? I know they did this with the Model S battery in the beginning. If they are, in fact, holding back some of the capacity of the 4680 packs, what we know about the range / cell could be very conservative.

 

[Cyberostachu]

Have a M3P (300mi rated range). The way I drive it - mostly 85mph freeway I use 50% of my battery (leave at 80-85% charge, get home around 35-40%) on a 100 mi round trip to / from work in Denver...so 200 mi car (max) on long distance trips with 75+mph freeways. Also have a CT Tri reservation..I think 300mi useful range is probable for most worst case scenarios excluding towing.

We got similar mileage because if I drove 90 mi round trip with my Model 3 LR, I used about 40%. If I drove 170 mi r-trip, I used 80%. For EPA rated 330 mi, I only got an effective 200 to 210 mi fully charged on the terrain similar to yours In Nevada. Practically, I'm only getting 65% efficiency from how it was advertised. (During my first discovery of this deficiency, I got mad and disgruntled. I felt it was dishonest. Considering negative mileage factors shouldn't be 35% reduction, just practically too high.) Therefore, to use the same logic, 500 mi should net us 325 miles. I can live with that because for long trips usually we stop to eat or restroom every 200 to 250 miles. My issue is I believe I'm in the middle of the pack in the order list. Actually, I still have to convert my order from dual to tri motor. If I don't get my order by the end of 2025, I'll look for an alternative probably the very reliable Toyota. BMW might price me out.

 

[GhostAndSkater]

Seeing all the wrong units here makes my head hurt

kWh - Energy, pack size

kW - Power

 

[CyberGus]

Seeing all the wrong units here makes my head hurt

kWh - Energy, pack size

kW - Power

I'm a programmer
I can't sleep when someone leaves an open parenthesis

 

[Luke42]

This may very well be the initial pricing. However, if the demand is high then the prices will certainly increase to match the demand.

The way this will play out is that demand will be very high initially, but it will fall off sharply once everyone who wants a Cybertruck has one.

That's the way it always goes for polarizing and niche designs: strong demand for a while, and then an asymptomatic descent toward zero demand.

Hopefully Tesla has other models using the same skateboard queued up and ready to go.

...this is probably what Franz was referring to when he said something to the effect of "if the Cybertruck doesn't sell, we will make a normal-looking pickup truck".

But, seriously, niche / polarizing products almost always follow that pattern of strong-demand until everyone who loves it gets theirs, followed by demand falling dramatically toward zero in an asymptomatic way.

I expect that the actual leadership of Tesla is well aware of this and is prepared for it. But I won't know for sure until they start making public announcements about it.

 

[Cyberostachu]

Seeing all the wrong units here makes my head hurt

kWh - Energy, pack size

kW - Power

I may be the one or one of those using the wrong units to hurt your head. We all want to be able to know everything if possible but we can tolerate mistakes. All I care is I bought the CT with the right battery pack that can go 500 miles and hopefully reach a destination of 300 real-world miles on a full charge. The older we are, the more tolerant and pragmatic we become.

 

[Cyberostachu]

The way this will play out is that demand will be very high initially, but it will fall off sharply once everyone who wants a Cybertruck has one.

That's the way it always goes for polarizing and niche designs: strong demand for a while, and then an asymptomatic descent toward zero demand.

Hopefully Tesla has other models using the same skateboard queued up and ready to go.

...this is probably what Franz was referring to when he said something to the effect of "if the Cybertruck doesn't sell, we will make a normal-looking pickup truck".

But, seriously, niche / polarizing products almost always follow that pattern of strong-demand until everyone who loves it gets theirs, followed by demand falling dramatically toward zero in an asymptomatic way.

I expect that the actual leadership of Tesla is well aware of this and is prepared for it. But I won't know for sure until they start making public announcements about it.

It will be a long while before we worry about demands. All I care is I get what I like and they don't have to buy what they don't like. I believe that other brands will imitate the CT instead of the other way around. I could be wrong too.

 

[Deleted member 17810]

I'm a programmer
I can't sleep when someone leaves an open parenthesis

This is me pointing out the cybertruck logo doesn't close it's parenthsis.

 

[CyberGus]

This is me pointing out the cybertruck logo doesn't close it's parenthsis.

Why do you think I never sleep

 

[Ogre]

Everyone is currently speculating on recent density.

What actually capacity/density does the 4680 need to achieve in order to fulfill its promise of 500 miles ?

_____________________________________

Goodness, ChatGPT come on down !!! But is the answer close ?


To determine the required energy density for the 4680 battery cells to fulfill the promise of a 500-mile range, we need to make some assumptions and calculations.

Energy Density = Battery Capacity / Battery Volume

First, let's assume a specific energy density value in watt-hours per liter (Wh/L) that the 4680 battery cells need to achieve. This value will vary based on the specific chemistry and design of the battery, as well as the desired performance and safety requirements. For this estimation, let's assume a specific energy density of 350 Wh/L.

Next, we need to calculate the required battery volume for a 125 kWh capacity battery:

Battery Volume = Battery Capacity / Energy Density

Battery Volume = 125,000 Wh / (350 Wh/L) ≈ 357.14 L

So, in order to fulfill the promise of a 500-mile range, the 4680 battery cells would need to achieve an energy density that allows for a battery volume of approximately 357.14 liters.

A fairly reliable source told me Texas is producing their gen 2 cells and that’s what the Cybertruck will ship with.

We don’t have much info on those cells so hard to say where density will land.

 

[CyberGus]

We don’t have much info on those cells so hard to say where density will land.