YDR37

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Going back to the title "Cybertruck May Transition to Fully Autonomous Cargo Truck"

- I can see FSD providing Autonomous driving,
but how much of the Cybertuck platform can be really used or is needed? ...

From the last Tesla financial report, I was hoping that Tesla would have announced
producing an SUV version of the Cybertruck, but instead announcing a Cargo Truck,
whose size and shape can be anything, still puzzle me.
Look at the context of the Cybertruck announcement. Here's the full transcript from the earnings call:
Travis Axelrod: Great. Moving on to the next question. After the unveil of the Cybertruck, Elon stated that if it didn't sell well, Tesla, Inc. would build a more conventional-looking pickup. How practical would it be to create this new design on the Cybertruck architecture, and could it be conveniently built on the existing production lines?

Lars Moravy: Actually, in its segment, CyberTruck can be a leader and is selling more than any other electric truck out there. Our competition continues to pull back. But to the question itself, from a line standpoint, we always design our lines to be super flexible. We've built 3 and Y on the same line. We built S and X on the same line still. Showing that we can do that. The Cybertruck line was designed in the same way and is one of our most fully ready for autonomy platforms.

Elon Musk: But yeah. We will transition the Cybertruck line to just a fully autonomous line. There's obviously a market there for cargo delivery, like you say, localized cargo delivery within a city, within a few hundred miles, something like that. There's a lot of cargo that needs to move locally within a city, and an autonomous Cybertruck could be very useful for that.
Notice that the original question was about a "more conventional-looking pickup". But the answer was about a "fully autonomous line".

My interpretation is that Tesla has zero interest in producing a conventional-looking pickup, or any other vehicle, on the CT platform. But they wanted to provide a positive response, rather than a negative response. So they decided to change the subject to autonomy, even though the CT is not particularly well suited to act as a delivery vehicle. And now the headlines (like on the title of this forum thread) read:

"Cybertruck May Transition to Fully Autonomous Cargo Truck in Future"

which seems a lot more positive and exciting than a headline like::

"Tesla has No Plans to Make a Normal Pickup or an SUV on the Cybertruck Platform"

It's classic misdirection and spin. Notice also that there was no other mention of the CT during the entire earnings call. The CT was only discussed in response to the direct question in the quoted passage above.
Sponsored

 
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YDR37

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I mean, the Rivian van developed for Amazon seems to be what required.
The Rivian delivery vans were indeed developed in cooperation with Amazon (although they are now also sold to other customers). In fact, Amazon is also the single largest shareholder of Rivian stock.

Seems like Amazon should have a pretty good understanding of optimal delivery vehicle design.
 

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I am extremely happy with the latest self driving software update. It drives better than I do. I’m nearing age 70, and I love my CT. I can go anywhere in any weather, and carry anything I want. The safety features make crossing the country on I-40 actually painless. Air suspension makes for a smooth ride. It’s an engineering masterpiece. I feel invincible because there’s no steering column to impale me in a head-on collision and no paint to chip in parking lots. I can get in without hitting my head. I’ve spent many hours touring art museums around the world, so when I say my CT is beautiful, I have some basis. And my cat loves its size, which really matters for stress-free hotel stays, because hotels won’t allow cats. I can plug in a coffee maker inside the cabin or the vault. I could even arc-weld if I wanted. And the awesome feature I finally got, a huge space to toss my purse when I enter. Every old lady needs a CT. Why would this awesome truck be discontinued?
 

Cybertruck2024

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I disagree that Tesla robo taxi service is not suited to rural areas. The metrics that govern each operator actually favor Tesla for rural areas (as well as urban). Cheaper is cheaper and cheaper is more desirable. You have to do mental gymnastics to make the case that non-Tesla robo taxi operators will somehow dominate rural areas.
Rural people are stubborn, it is a part of the whole rural identity. I know this because I have lived rural most of my life. You aren't going to ever convince rural people that it is better to wait for a ride than to have one instantly available.

There are millions of cheap vehicles out there. These are the economical and sensible option for rural people.

Tesla is smart, they are ditching the S and X because they don't make financial sense. They are reevaluating the Cybertruck, per the point of this thread, because it doesn't make financial sense. Having one thousand autonomous vehicles in a town of two thousand people to meet their needs doesn't make sense. Having 20 vehicles and then having to wait 30 minutes for a ride during rush hour doesn't make sense.

You're right that Elon is normally a few steps ahead of the general population. But it doesn't take a once a generation mind to figure this one out.
 

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Having one thousand autonomous vehicles in a town of two thousand people to meet their needs doesn't make sense. Having 20 vehicles and then having to wait 30 minutes for a ride during rush hour doesn't make sense.
Elon is one step ahead of you. I'm not just blowing hot air up your ass when I say this.

It was Elon who told us Tesla owners would eventually be able to let their personal Tesla participate in the robo-taxi network, with profit-sharing. As a retired Alaskan commercial fisher I'm very familiar with rural America and consider myself a self-educated redneck. I know how frugal rural people can be, how a dollar is often worth more to them than that same dollar is to a city-slicker. If they can make some spare money by putting their personal car in the robo-taxi network when they don't need it, enough of them will do exactly that, which will eventually reduce wait times in rural areas to a few minutes. There will be cars just sitting there waiting for a paying gig. These are the cars that will be summoned by the robo-taxi network software when someone says they need a ride, because they are positioned closest to the call for a ride.

Rural people get too old to drive safely at night, too old to want to drive during the day, they have doctor's appointments, they run out of cigarettes, liquor or food, they get license suspensions from DWI, they have court hearings, they suffer car breakdowns and lengthy repairs, they suffer from dead batteries, mornings too cold for their vehicle too start, and they don't like to ask a family member to spend their time to drive them around. Some of them simply don't have the income to support car payments, insurance, tires, and the other expenses of car ownership. Others need a ride to the auto parts store when in the middle of a repair. Ride hailing is about to get so inexpensive that word of the existence of cheap and convenient rides will spread like gossip in rural cafes, bars and grocery stores. Everyone has a cell phone. Yes, it will take a few years for the foundations to be laid, but we are getting very close to that.

Most of Tesla's robotaxi revenues will be in urban and suburban areas, but they will most definitely support the growth of the network into rural areas because that aligns perfectly with their long-standing mission statement to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy (and also their most recently added mission towards sustainable abundance).

Tesla doesn't need to convince anyone that it's better to wait a few minutes for a ride than to have one instantly available, they only need to have rides available when the other options are less appealing. It costs Tesla nothing to let everyone and their brother join the robotaxi network in hopes of letting their car make them some money. Many of these vehicles will only provide a couple of rides per week (and that won't matter because they would just be sitting idle otherwise).
 
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Elon is one step ahead of you. I'm not just blowing hot air up your ass when I say this.

It was Elon who told us Tesla owners would eventually be able to let their personal Tesla participate in the robo-taxi network, with profit-sharing. As a retired Alaskan commercial fisher I'm very familiar with rural America and consider myself a self-educated redneck. I know how frugal rural people can be, how a dollar is often worth more to them than that same dollar is to a city-slicker. If they can make some spare money by putting their personal car in the robo-taxi network when they don't need it, enough of them will do exactly that, which will eventually reduce wait times in rural areas to a few minutes. There will be cars just sitting there waiting for a paying gig. These are the cars that will be summoned by the robo-taxi network software when someone says they need a ride, because they are positioned closest to the call for a ride.

Rural people get too old to drive safely at night, too old to want to drive during the day, they have doctor's appointments, they run out of cigarettes, liquor or food, they get license suspensions from DWI, they have court hearings, they suffer car breakdowns and lengthy repairs, they suffer from dead batteries, mornings too cold for their vehicle too start, and they don't like to ask a family member to spend their time to drive them around. Some of them simply don't have the income to support car payments, insurance, tires, and the other expenses of car ownership. Others need a ride to the auto parts store when in the middle of a repair. Ride hailing is about to get so inexpensive that word of the existence of cheap and convenient rides will spread like gossip in rural cafes, bars and grocery stores. Everyone has a cell phone. Yes, it will take a few years for the foundations to be laid, but we are getting very close to that.

Most of Tesla's robotaxi revenues will be in urban and suburban areas, but they will most definitely support the growth of the network into rural areas because that aligns perfectly with their long-standing mission statement to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy (and also their most recently added mission towards sustainable abundance).

Tesla doesn't need to convince anyone that it's better to wait a few minutes for a ride than to have one instantly available, they only need to have rides available when the other options are less appealing. It costs Tesla nothing to let everyone and their brother join the robotaxi network in hopes of letting their car make them some money. Many of these vehicles will only provide a couple of rides per week (and that won't matter because they would just be sitting idle otherwise).

But if the cars make money, why would Tesla sell them to private buyers and not make the money themselves? I suppose it could be so Tesla doesn't need to finance the whole fleet themselves. But in the long run this is just giving away recurring profits, so it doesn't make a ton of sense.

Perhaps if Tesla can charge $20k to retrofit existing Teslas with the hardware (camera cleaners, HW5, etc.) early in the UFSD era because their fleet is not large enough, with a huge margin on this hardware purchase, that's another entry point. Get people excited they may make this money back, but give no guarantee. But long term it doesn't make a lot of sense to sell Cybercabs to someone else if they are giving over recurring profits.

This also doesn't solve the problem of rush hour. Even in your rural example, the majority of people are using their vehicles at the same time. Vehicle share adds little value at 8AM.
 

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True, and this has possible implications for Tesla's future reporting.

Tesla, unlike most automakers, doesn't report production or deliveries of individual models. Instead, they report numbers for "Model 3/Y" combined, and "Other Models" combined. The "Other Models" category includes Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck.

But what happens when Tesla no longer manufactures or sells the S/X? Then the only vehicle left in the "Other Models" category will be the Cybertruck.

So in theory, we could start getting exact numbers from Tesla for Cybertruck production and deliveries. Although Tesla could also eliminate the "Other Models" category, and simply lump all their vehicles together.
I expect CT to get wrapped in with all vehicle sales. not remain in its own category. Too much of an irrelevant rounding error without S&X in the specialty vehicle category. Accounting rules only require segment reporting for "material" segments. The CT isn't that, unfortunately.
 

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You forgot about the Tesla Semi. The production lines/equipment is getting tuned for large scale production as we sit here.
There's no such thing as large-scale semi production. Semis last a very long time, with most measuring useful engine life around 750k, and then they normally get rebuilt. The current average semi on the road is 11.8 years old, and there are about 3 million total semis registered on U.S roads.

That compares with just under 300 million light vehicles registered in the U.S. Semis are 1% of the overall vehicle population, in a segment that lasts longer per vehicle.

Total U.S. semi sales average around 250k per year in the U.S., may be as high as 300k this year. In the unlikely event that Tesla gains 25% semi-truck market share, that would be 75k unit sales annually, not enough to move the needle by much.

Tesla sells way more M3/Y's every QUARTER than the total potential ANNUAL market for 100% of all semi truck sales in the entire country. And there's plenty of competition that doesn't have to wait for the infrastructure to develop... I get that EV semis will eventually emerge for local transfer, but interstate range remain a huge engineering hurdle. So it's a subset of an already pretty small market.

Yes, $250-300k per unit price eclipses some of that math, but the Semi seems just as conceptually niche to me as a killer S-class or BMW 7-Series competitor by Tesla. To me it's baffling that Tesla would entirely abandon the market segment that kindled interest in EVs in the first place. I hear the 'reasons' and respect Elon's history with making some of these calls, but worldwide engineering talent is fungible and deep.

Tesla has access to ALL the capital it can deploy, so if Porsche can make it work, it seems that Tesla could stay in the EV sports sedan/SUV/hypercar games, and beat the other luxury car makers in a segment that it owned for over 13 years. As American EV makers go, why should Tesla allow Cadillac to have all the fun with the Celestique? If it can make money at the 25-unit level, it seems that Tesla could also make a boutique model at each price point and sporting interest level - without taking its eye off the big picture ball. Yes, the Semi is significant, but let's stay real regarding its potential, and not ignore the other automotive segments at the same time.
 

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There's no such thing as large-scale semi production. Semis last a very long time, with most measuring useful engine life around 750k, and then they normally get rebuilt. The current average semi on the road is 11.8 years old, and there are about 3 million total semis registered on U.S roads.

That compares with just under 300 million light vehicles registered in the U.S. Semis are 1% of the overall vehicle population, in a segment that lasts longer per vehicle.

Total U.S. semi sales average around 250k per year in the U.S., may be as high as 300k this year. In the unlikely event that Tesla gains 25% semi-truck market share, that would be 75k unit sales annually, not enough to move the needle by much.

Tesla sells way more M3/Y's every QUARTER than the total potential ANNUAL market for 100% of all semi truck sales in the entire country. And there's plenty of competition that doesn't have to wait for the infrastructure to develop... I get that EV semis will eventually emerge for local transfer, but interstate range remain a huge engineering hurdle. So it's a subset of an already pretty small market.

Yes, $250-300k per unit price eclipses some of that math, but the Semi seems just as conceptually niche to me as a killer S-class or BMW 7-Series competitor by Tesla. To me it's baffling that Tesla would entirely abandon the market segment that kindled interest in EVs in the first place. I hear the 'reasons' and respect Elon's history with making some of these calls, but worldwide engineering talent is fungible and deep.

Tesla has access to ALL the capital it can deploy, so if Porsche can make it work, it seems that Tesla could stay in the EV sports sedan/SUV/hypercar games, and beat the other luxury car makers in a segment that it owned for over 13 years. As American EV makers go, why should Tesla allow Cadillac to have all the fun with the Celestique? If it can make money at the 25-unit level, it seems that Tesla could also make a boutique model at each price point and sporting interest level - without taking its eye off the big picture ball. Yes, the Semi is significant, but let's stay real regarding its potential, and not ignore the other automotive segments at the same time.
Great points.

There is something about maintaining image and brand value. Sure the S and X don't make a ton of money, but I did like to say how Tesla had the most impressive EVs. Now Lucid is the performance leader in the sedan space and Rivian is the leader in the SUV space. Tesla used to take pride in being the best EV, now they are fine taking the Toyota approach making the EV equivalents of the Corolla.

Sure, this is fine, Toyota makes a lot of money and does very well making vanilla vehicles. Shareholders rejoice! But it is sad it won't be an enthusiast brand anymore.
 

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There's no such thing as large-scale semi production. Semis last a very long time, with most measuring useful engine life around 750k, and then they normally get rebuilt. The current average semi on the road is 11.8 years old, and there are about 3 million total semis registered on U.S roads.
FYI: "Large scale semi production" in the N. American market refers to manufacturers who make tens of thousands of semi tractors annually. Currently, no one is manufacturing EV semis in those volumes, but that is about to change with Tesla's Semi factory coming on-line this year. Previously, each Tesla Semi was handmade, obviously not "large scale" manufacturing. I'm not sure why you insist on being so pedantic.
[/QUOTE]

Total U.S. semi sales average around 250k per year in the U.S., may be as high as 300k this year. In the unlikely event that Tesla gains 25% semi-truck market share, that would be 75k unit sales annually, not enough to move the needle by much.
That would move the needle substantially. Heavy trucking contributes 25-30% of all road emissions, so it's an important segment for Tesla to convert to electric. It's an important part of their corporate mission to make the world more sustainable.


Tesla has access to ALL the capital it can deploy, so if Porsche can make it work, it seems that Tesla could stay in the EV sports sedan/SUV/hypercar games, and beat the other luxury car makers in a segment that it owned for over 13 years.
Tesla's limiting factor is human talent, not capital. That's why it's important that Tesla deploy it where it has the largest positive impact. Luxury cars are a small market and have minimal emissions relative to heavy trucking. Tesla knows what they are doing better than you think they do. Heck, just a few days ago you were pushing the narrative that the 4680 cell was a failure and that Tesla didn't plan to put it in any other models. But it's going in the Semi, the Cybercab, and the Optimus robot.

I don't know why you constantly push false narratives here. It's not a good look. It looks like you think you could run Tesla better than the man whose results speak for themselves. Results matter, not armchair quarterbacks throwing peanut shells from the peanut gallery. You people are on the wrong side of history. If you could do it so much better, then why don't you prove it? I don't see you moving the needle, not even a little bit. Elon is making grandiose dreams a reality. And, yes, he is always quick to give credit to the teams that implement the plans.
 


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The Cybertruck was the best selling EV truck in 2024, but not in 2025 (#2 behind Ford Lightning)

And competitors aren't leaving. Ford didn't cancel the Lightning, they are retooling to bring it back to market as an EREV. And new players -- like Ram, Slate, Scout, and Kia -- will enter the EV truck market in 2026-2027.
Get ready! when these EREV trucks hit, the public will go nuts over their 600 mile range. I say get ready because there are a bunch of reasons EREVs are not good. just ask GROK what is bad about EREVs. I did and was amazed at the results. hold those EREV drawback in your memory to be communicated to your buddies when they say yeah but I can go 600 miles. Huh (once a year)
 

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Huh? As a rational pragmatic person I can only judge the effectiveness of management by looking at the results over the last 6 years (and more). I'm talking about things like capital efficiency, revenue growth, R&D results in robotics, rapid growth in energy storage and profit margins, AI compute growth, and the speed of building North America's first lithium refinery, using a lower cost, more environmentally state-of-the-art refining process developed in-house. Not to mention the Tesla Semi production facility coming on line shortly to crank out pure electric heavy trucks. None of this is easy. None of this is medium-hard. It's all extremely difficult stuff requiring a very high degree of correct decisions, higher than most people could hope to manage as illustrated by how superior Tesla's results have been when compared to other businesses operating in the same space. Tesla is like 12 start-up companies in one, and they have been self-funding for the last six years, growing a 44 billion dollar war chest to use on the latest technologies offering the most promising rates of return. I would expect a company making such heavy investments in the future, and operating in the difficult EV market, to be heavily in debt, not sitting on $44 billion in cash. How is that bad management?

It's nothing short of astounding, if you ask me. And this is not even Elon's only wildly successful company. He has a long history of superior capital efficiency, doing more with less and providing superior returns. Bad management? That's just a baffling take.

I think you are either talking about a company other than Tesla or you think Tesla exists primarily to satisfy your individual personal automotive wants. Tesla looks at the entire addressable market of the markets they participate in, not what outliers personally think they want. That's how Tesla has the best-selling car in the world for the last three years in a row and have quickly become a leading stationary energy storage provider with superior margins and operate the worlds largest and most reliable DCFC Network. Tesla is one of the last companies I would expect to fail, given the proven management with exceptional vision, strong financials and capitally efficient R&D spending in emerging fast-growing segments. Elon's timing at entering new markets is astounding.

Wait until you see the amazing ways that Optimus will leverage Tesla's real world AI expertise. Tesla, with the Semi, Robotaxi, grid scale energy storage, battery manufacturing, humanoid robots and AI learning is on the verge of blowing all their earlier accomplishments out of the water. I can think of no other CEO who could have led Tesla as effectively as Elon has.

If you don't like the way Tesla operates their automotive division, maybe you should try Rivian, LOL!
agreed a hundred percent. I just heard about the hydrogen leak set back again for NASA's Artemis. Elon wisely chose a different fuel. He knew how H2 leaks are difficult to contain. Yet NASA didn't learn their lesson after all their previous problems with H2. AND, sad to say the Chinese will find a way into US markets with less expensive EVs that will cut into Tesla's EV market.
 

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FYI: "Large scale semi production" in the N. American market refers to manufacturers who make tens of thousands of semi tractors annually. Currently, no one is manufacturing EV semis in those volumes, but that is about to change with Tesla's Semi factory coming on-line this year. Previously, each Tesla Semi was handmade, obviously not "large scale" manufacturing. I'm not sure why you insist on being so pedantic.


That would move the needle substantially. Heavy trucking contributes 25-30% of all road emissions, so it's an important segment for Tesla to convert to electric. It's an important part of their corporate mission to make the world more sustainable.




Tesla's limiting factor is human talent, not capital. That's why it's important that Tesla deploy it where it has the largest positive impact. Luxury cars are a small market and have minimal emissions relative to heavy trucking. Tesla knows what they are doing better than you think they do. Heck, just a few days ago you were pushing the narrative that the 4680 cell was a failure and that Tesla didn't plan to put it in any other models. But it's going in the Semi, the Cybercab, and the Optimus robot.

I don't know why you constantly push false narratives here. It's not a good look. It looks like you think you could run Tesla better than the man whose results speak for themselves. Results matter, not armchair quarterbacks throwing peanut shells from the peanut gallery. You people are on the wrong side of history. If you could do it so much better, then why don't you prove it? I don't see you moving the needle, not even a little bit. Elon is making grandiose dreams a reality. And, yes, he is always quick to give credit to the teams that implement the plans.
[/QUOTE]

You mentioned a bunch of stuff, but keep failing to acknowledge they are getting rid of two of their three enthusiast vehicles. With only the Beast remaining, and potentially not indefinitely, there is clearly a gap in Tesla's offering. Sure they are moving talent to more profitable ventures, but that also is starting them down the road of being a boring automobile maker.

We are on a vehicle forum for enthusiasts. Tesla is turning its back on automobile enthusiasts. They could make trillions of dollars and reduce global emissions by 30%, that doesn't change the fact they are becoming boring doing it. I thank Tesla for what they have done, and I look forward to what they may accomplish and really hope owning a robot is great.

...but that doesn't change the fact a good number of us no longer have a Tesla product that appeals to us after our current Cybertrucks. I love that Tesla was a bridge vehicle for me with a M3P, and offered a true aspirational product in the Beast. But now I guess I need to look at a Taycan?
 

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That would move the needle substantially. Heavy trucking contributes 25-30% of all road emissions, so it's an important segment for Tesla to convert to electric. It's an important part of their corporate mission to make the world more sustainable.




Tesla's limiting factor is human talent, not capital. That's why it's important that Tesla deploy it where it has the largest positive impact. Luxury cars are a small market and have minimal emissions relative to heavy trucking. Tesla knows what they are doing better than you think they do. Heck, just a few days ago you were pushing the narrative that the 4680 cell was a failure and that Tesla didn't plan to put it in any other models. But it's going in the Semi, the Cybercab, and the Optimus robot.

I don't know why you constantly push false narratives here. It's not a good look. It looks like you think you could run Tesla better than the man whose results speak for themselves. Results matter, not armchair quarterbacks throwing peanut shells from the peanut gallery. You people are on the wrong side of history. If you could do it so much better, then why don't you prove it? I don't see you moving the needle, not even a little bit. Elon is making grandiose dreams a reality. And, yes, he is always quick to give credit to the teams that implement the plans.
You mentioned a bunch of stuff, but keep failing to acknowledge they are getting rid of two of their three enthusiast vehicles. With only the Beast remaining, and potentially not indefinitely, there is clearly a gap in Tesla's offering. Sure they are moving talent to more profitable ventures, but that also is starting them down the road of being a boring automobile maker.

We are on a vehicle forum for enthusiasts. Tesla is turning its back on automobile enthusiasts. They could make trillions of dollars and reduce global emissions by 30%, that doesn't change the fact they are becoming boring doing it. I thank Tesla for what they have done, and I look forward to what they may accomplish and really hope owning a robot is great.

...but that doesn't change the fact a good number of us no longer have a Tesla product that appeals to us after our current Cybertrucks. I love that Tesla was a bridge vehicle for me with a M3P, and offered a true aspirational product in the Beast. But now I guess I need to look at a Taycan?
[/QUOTE]
Tesla...specifically Elon has shifted off the "reducing emissions" as a primary objective even walking back some of his previous claims like when he used to say Climate Change was an emergency and more recently said “Climate change risk is real, just much slower than alarmists claim.” He also said he doesn't see where it would cause any real threat to humanity.

He even changed the Tesla mission statement:

Old mission: “Accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy.”
New mission: “Building a world of amazing abundance.”

I don't buy the articles that Elon doesn't believe Climate Change is real, even though he stood behind Trump when Trump said it was all a big hoax, but he's absolutely changed direction on it.
 

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Seems like Amazon should have a pretty good understanding of optimal delivery vehicle design.
There is no one optimal "delivery vehicle design" because delivery is not one thing. For decades auto parts stores used miniature (compact) pickups to deliver auto parts around from store to store and from store to repair shop. Florists tend to use compact or full sized light cargo vans. Pizza and restaurant delivery tends to happen in sedans and hatchbacks. Spas and hot tubs are usually delivered on a trailer behind a pickup. Amazon and Rivian optimized the Rivian Amazon vans for all-day routes of parcel deliveries.

Autonomous delivery with the Cybertruck will likely start with custom, time sensitive deliveries, not all-day routes of packages customers have been waiting 2-5 days for. Over the next three years, the delivery market is about to explode with new custom same-day options at previously unheard of prices.
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